HVSnowLover

Actually I looked at the track a bit more closely. That track and strength on the CMC and GFS should be mostly snow from roughly I80 latitude and north of there changing to snow for everyone as the storm progresses.     

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yeah but meanwhile their on camera "talent" is still saying (as of 5 minutes ago lol) "big I-95 snowstorm passing over the benchmark"-- makes you wonder how well they know the geography up here?

 

Seems to start a little inside the benchmark which is a problem for NYC and points south. Also the airmass is mariginal. It will flip to snow everywhere but is this a mostly rain/white rain to 1-2 inches backend deal or a bombing out something bigger deal is the uncertainty. 

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Some still think it will pass off the DelMarVa.

You guys have to start criticizing the weather channel, they are spreading false info.

1) They have said for days this is a noreaster

2) They have said for days this is passing south and east of the benchmark "ensuring mostly snow for the coast" (their words....)

3) They have said for days now that this is a "monster" I-95 snowstorm.

I went at them on social media telling them that they make a good case for why people from the south have no clue what an I-95 snowstorm or noreaster even is and why people in Atlanta have no business making weather forecasts for the northeast. So while we can blame "weenies" the real people to blame, once again, is the media, for spreading false information.

 

It might be mostly snow but it's going to be white rain for a while near the coast. I'll admit the models are sorta all over the place with this so I still don't know if it could surprise but without much cold air I usually lean climo.    

47 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Sounds about right, I’m going for 1-2” here on the far uws, where we usually do far better then the south shore in this type of setup. So based on that, a coating or zip on the south shore. 

Seems the same story every storm the past two winters. A nothing event at the immediate coast, a nuisance event just inland, and big snows NW of I287. 

1 minute ago, ILoveWinter said:

I'm a weenie too but I've learned my lessons and one thing I refuse to do is stay up late for model runs unless we have a good shot at receiving a substantial snow fall in the City. This one certainly does not meet that standard!

Yea after enough tracking you kind of know the difference between a few models run show significant snow potential vs this actually has real potential to deliver a significant snowfall. I will say though the way the last two winters have gone even 1-3/2-4 inch events are becoming rare enough to be exciting. 

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

Do you really do this? Why not get a good night sleep and see what the models showed in the morning? Staying up snowstorm I get but to see what a model shows I do not understand 

If it's an upcoming real significant snow threat (historic storm) I get staying up for the tracking part but a storm like this nah.

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Everyone is getting watches except the City

This stinks

Not just the city. Southern Westchester, CT Coast, and NE NJ left out as well. The new I95 is I287. 

6 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

not even. all 2-3 inch events.

 

you are running +5 for the winter. 287 is the new coast with that. accept it and move on. Wishing for unicorns in city.

My Hydrangea bush has buds on them. 

I mean it's been like 2 winters like this but yes I287 does seem to be the coastline now. Anywhere southeast of there may as well be in the ocean (from a weather perspective).

22 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I dont think there is nearly enough respect for Positive snow depth change, ESPECIALLY the gradient edge where temps are a possible accum factor. Gradient is where the largest errors occur. You can go 10 to 1 in colder thickness below 540 but not above.  That's why the NWS uses ratios in small increments to match temp/type/vertical thermal profile.  

It's not the old days... we now have better techniques to attempt the reality. Referencing 10 to 1 in warmer side of the gradient is not my choice.  I've seen comment about big snowfall rates overcoming but what if that very strong lift ends up north of NYC?  Then it's harder to accum. 

I may learn my lesson, but for now 12z/10 Canadian is pathetic, ensembles not too good I80 south except the more robust EPS and so prior reputation for the Euro warrants keeping that in mind. I've lost faith in the Euro and notice that even though the GES is not a great flag for events...it's GEFS Positive Snow Depth Change has been better than the Euro in my opinion. NBM is still up for 2-3" so not all is lost.

I will keep an eye on GEFS positive snow depth change and if it grows... NYC good, but otherwise we need the Canadian on board. I can only think the Canadian will move its solutions north and snowier on the edge in the next couple of cycles. 

I'll check back tomorrow morning.

 

 

A Euro/GFS scenario verbatim is probably more realistically 1-3 inches on colder surfaces for NYC. There would be some decent snow likely on the back end but it would warm and rainy for a while.  

I haven't followed this super closely but seems models are way apart on this so don't know what to think. I know most storms end up north and amped but the RGEM/CMC being so surpressed makes me question it.

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nam is 1 to 3, more south of nyc

Always more hope when you need a north trend then a south one but verbatim would be a real nice winter week for DC/Baltimore.

Just now, MJO812 said:

Snowing here in Brooklyn and sticking to everything 

That's what happens when it never goes above freezing during the storm.

Amazing how much more wintry it feels when it's snow or sleet falling even if it's light compared to when it's zr.

Light sleet/snow mix now.

Almost all models still show a bit more snow later from NYC on NW with around an inch more Westchester on north.

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro looks like a pretty light event but a bit better than it was

Dry but definitely more wet/north than 0Z. 

1 minute ago, ag3 said:

NYC, LGA and JFK are now at 32 degrees.

 

It's 30 here now. Can tell the difference between 20s and 30s with ZR, when it was in the 20s it was icing a lot and now it's mostly wet/slush.

I don't have much interest in tracking an inverted trough, they are always very localized and hard to  predict. Hopefully the coastal comes west like other storms. Would definitely favor LI/SNJ with this one but maybe everyone can get a few inches of all snow to wrap up the week. 

I don't want to complain about a snow/frozen event but this storm has been meh. The snow rates were putrid and now it's slush with some icing.  

The NAM/RGEM both seem close to the coast and juicy for Friday. I know both models are not good at this range but they were also amped with the current storm before the others. 

8 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

I think a lot of people on this forum are going to be disappointed tomorrow morning. Not because it’s not gonna snow. it’s definitely gonna snow. You guys are trying to make this a bigger storm than what it is. With each run you’re trying to make this seem like this is a 6 incher that’s coming in. Its not.

 

Just like last week with each run, you tried to make it seem like it wasn’t going to snow. You guys talk yourself into stuff over and over and then you get disappointed.

Last week was a 6 inch storm with the rain snow line in the Bronx. This is a 3 inch storm outside of urban areas.

This is true, the main details aren't really changing, just some small waffles. This has gone probably from a 1-3 inch event yesterday to a 2-4 inch event area wide today. Someone probably gets 5 in the subforum but almost everyone will get 2-4.

4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Interesting. Upton sees Suffolk all the way to Nassau border going to plain rain for 7 hours. Not sure any model has that. It also increased some amounts to 3.5 or so for western Suffolk. Will be interesting to see. I doubt we hit the forecast high of 38. Temp busted low today as well

The models seem to rarely account for the North shore vs South shore differences on LI and just make the whole eastern half green. I could see more of a west vs east gradient here as opposed to north vs south but still think north shore of Suffolk is in an ok spot to stay mostly snow/frozen.

12 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We're lucky there's so much precip before the warm air really arrives. Hopefully when that happens most of the storm is over. But regardless it's so hilarious to see another of these late big amped/NW pushes, which makes sense since we don't have any blocking to force a good track and the mean trough is so far west. The easterly winds will warm us up for a time east of the city. It can be as cold as it wants now but that wind shift warms us right up. But it will be brief. 

Yes LI will definiutely have a hard time staying snow in this setup and probably all of the island goes to plain rain briefly but could still be a typical 4 inch north shore 1 inch south shore scenario.

Temps don't seem to ever go above freezing on the Euro NW of around Central Queens. Could definitely see 34 and rain at JFK for a short time while 30 and ZR/Sleet CPK and LGA but I still think it's mostly snow for CPK and LGA.  

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Wetter

Might be trending toward 4-6 in places along or just NW of I95 if they can get heavier precip and stay all snow.