HVSnowLover

Haven;t really been following this one. Last I looked it seemed like a very minor event but now seems like advisory level snow is possible for NYC Metro?

10 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

But there's concrete jungles in Queens and Brooklyn too.  I've seen them lol.  Places like Jamaica and Hillside in Queens are like that too and Bay Ridge in Brooklyn.

Maybe near Bayside and Whitestone it's much more "suburban" and much less concrete.  I love Alley Pond Park up in NE Queens.

 

Yes parts of Queens, Brooklyn, and even the southern Bronx are very concrete but nothing is like midtown or downtown Manhattan. 

54 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Central Park 3 inches 

Coney island 7 inches

Seems urban vs rural made the biggest difference in this storm. 

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

I'm not sure any of the boroughs will get over 6" but I guess it's possible.  4-6 is good for this storm here

I imagine there are places in the northern Bronx already around or over 6 inches.

About 5-6 inches here I'd say. Amazing looking at some of the reports north of here. Euro was awful.

Often time colder comes with flatter, verbatim still a nice 3-6 inch event but wonder how much sticks if there isn't intense rates.

NAM maybe a tick more amped?

Actually I think its not but the precip looks a bit more organized.

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yup. Yikes.

Officials urge people to work from home if possible, stay off roads during Tuesday snowstorm (msn.com)

I mean in fairness this has been one of the most extreme last minute trends I can remember (especially south).

HRRR looks lousy unless you live in NJ.

3 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

For my neck of the woods, western LI and Queens it's I think going to snow heavily from 7AM-Noon then end pretty quickly. I cannot really see anyone around me getting much more than 5" with an isolated 6" here and there. It will look great coming down, silver dollar flakes, but it will have trouble at first sticking at all to the pavement. Still, the pavement will get a few inches. Now if there were more blocking and the storm slowed down, it could be twice as much. But I don't see that happening.

WX/PT

We've had fast movers with cold air rushing in perform well before. I agree though this is probably around 5-6 inches most areas but I think some places in the metro might get 6-10. 

32 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Pretty decent tick north and juiced compared to 12Z. Looks in line with other guidance now.

49 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

People need to stop looking at these clown maps in marginal temps. Take the number it shows and divide it by 2 and then take that number and divide it by 2. No way coastal Nj is getting anywhere near those numbers. Lots of no stick and white rain. 

I don't look at 10:1 maps but even the Kuchera maps are showing significant snow now for NYC and points south of NYC. I think people are underestimating how dynamic this storm could be. If the dynamics target Coastal NJ they get raked. It's about where the dynamics are in my opinion more than what temps are at the start of the storm.

Just now, nycsnow said:

Big band showing up at end of HRR can see the dark blue engulfing 

The plus side of the south trend is it might be almost all snow from the get go which would help with accumulations.  

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Models seem to have stopped the south shifts so looks like central NJ to NYC/LI are good to go. Finally a good storm trending the right way at the end! 

LI is in a good spot. NYC probably in a good spot although concern is if the best dynamics are SE of NYC then NYC would deal with white rain due to UHI.

Truthfully you probably don't want to see mostly snow down to near ACY like the RAP is showing if you want big snows NYC area. This will have a pretty narrow axis of heaviest snow I think.

18z gfs is actually ever so slightly south of the previous run but still a great hit.

3 minutes ago, cannoliman42 said:

Such varying estimates in NYC and Western LI. Certainly one of the weirder maps I've seen out of Upton, but could be factoring in UHI/population density.

Edit: Thought about it some more. Still doesn't make sense to me.

Looks like a March storm but I guess with marginal surface temps they are maybe expecting it to be more like a March storm where UHI makes a difference.

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

Wow actually upped totals in Westchester. They must think the south trend is a bit overdone?

I've

Just now, Metasequoia said:

And if this storm trends northward overnight and shafts the metro, they'll be rejoicing... and good for them.

Importantly though, the vast majority of us would rather have a storm that buries everyone. 

The storm is happening overnight at this point so a trend that dramatic is unlikely. At most this shifts far enough north to hit both the metro and up to I84.

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

18z seems to held serve hopefully things hold or even tick north a bit at 00z

18z NAM and RGEM both south of their 12z runs but still good for NYC metro. 

23 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

NYC metro and li now have a little wiggle room, hopefully there is a little bump north to bring our friends up north back into it 

Wiggle room north yes, wiggle room south not much. It's unreal how dramatic the shift has been.

15 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

Where is Snowman19? We need his "this will end up north" posts now, lol. 

Now he seems to be indicating this will miss NYC to the south.

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

Upton going with 10” out here. Just gassed up the snowblower. LFG

I'd be surprised if anyone hits 10 inches at this point but if anyone does it would probably be the north shore of Suffolk.

RGEM basically jackpots NYC. Definitely less amplified than yesterday but don't think anyone would complain about 6+ inches 

3 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

I never said anything about 12+….     6-12 in the JP zone which will be 30 miles north and south of NYC

I know I wasn't referring to you. I meant the 10:1 maps that are showing 12+, the surface will be too warm in the areas with best dynamics. I agree 6-12 is reasonable somewhere within 30 miles either direction of the city.