tramadoc

Dime sized flakes falling here about 5 miles SW of Elizabeth City.

AKQ not impressed with tomorrow's system. A dampening shortwave trough will push across the Ohio Valley this evening, before sliding across the Carolinas on Wednesday. This feature will interact with the aforementioned cold front, spinning up a weak low/coastal front. 12z/26 NAM/CMC/ECMWF each are a bit wetter with the overrunning moisture, with the GFS lagging behind showing little or nothing. However, much of the deep moisture and lift remains just to our SE. Our official QPF has increased slightly over our SE sections, with precipitation expected in the mid to late morning timeframe across far NE NC and coastal SE VA, and pops have been increased to high end chc/likely during this midday time period. Thermal profiles aloft support light snow at the outset across the entire area. However, warmer air just aloft (H8-85) could allow for some light sleet/graupel mixing in before any mixed precipitation turns over to rain by late morning. PoWT grids do indicate a small chance of some freezing rain along (and mainly S) of the Albemarle sound, and accordingly some FZRA mention was considered. However, given very light QPF and the timing, we have stuck with frozen dominant P-type, and hence no winter wx headlines at this time. Should also note that precipitation could turn back to snow briefly by early afternoon in strong CAA before ending, again with little or no accumulation given relatively warm ground and light QPF. Farther N, highs should only rise into the low/mid 30s under a partly to mostly cloudy sky. Have also allowed for a period of flurries over northern tier, mainly north of a FVX-RIC-WAL line. Even in the dry airmass, northern stream shortwave, ongoing strong CAA and strong upper jetmax crossing could be enough to wring out a few light snow showers. HRRR has begun to catch on to this potential, for what it`s worth...so later shifts will be keeping an eye out for this potential early tomorrow morning. Measuring unlikely, so will hold pops out for now.

I agree that since we are "in between" the SE and MA threads what works for us usually leaves them either getting a dusting or nothing at all. I get why they always love the NW trend and the lows closer to the coast. It throws more moisture back west and allows the western half of the state to pile up snow. The only problem is that when that happens, we get a cold rain. Personally, I want to see us get the snow and everyone else get shafted. That doesn't usually happen.

Gauging the somber attitudes in the SE forum, it looks like we are not going to get anything of consequence during this period of below normal temperatures. [emoji29]

I said it before... The guys in SE are central to western NC centric. What they want to happen is always worse for us.

I hope so. All the guys in the SE thread are hoping for the low to ride the coast closer in so the western Piedmont and mountains get the bulk of it while we get nothing but rain.

It seems to me that the trends aren't very good for those further to the north such as DC metro and Baltimore. I could be wrong.

Need to reel this one in.

I'm hoping to see a good snowfall. Haven't seen one since February 14.

Hey, I'll let everyone know OBS from Elizabeth City, NC. I get left out of the SE Forum discussion since I'm the only one in extreme NE NC. You guys are the closest thing I've got.

Looks like the next two weeks could be interesting. Get ready for yo-yo emotions.

We're the bastard children here. Not wanted by anyone. Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

Okay. I realize I'm not in Hampton Roads per se, but this is the closest thing to me since I live in KECG, about an hour south of KORF. I'm in no man's land between the SE forum and MA forum. Other than SteveVa on the SE forum, no one is remotely close to me. I hope to talk to y'all and add worthy discussion to this forum. Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

I hate all of you with snow as I am drenched in my 39 degree rain.

Thank you snowlover91 and queencitywx.

Is the CMC running late? I don't see any usual sites with it up.

I see the lemmings racing to the edge of the cliff.

By the looks of the map posted that you questioned, it doesn't look like it.

Since I'm in Elizabeth City, I'm hugging it like hot death.

I've been watching over the last couple of days and it seems like it has gone from a positively tilted trough to a neutral stance. Are there chances it goes negative tilt?

Is it a NW trend or is the precipitation field expanding NW? That is the question.

I've always wondered why that is. In my area, it's from the Albemarle Sound south. I know why that happens, but you're right, Wake County always has that line.

My mother-in-law is coming in from Dublin, Ireland. Any snow for her will be a treat.

I'll take my 4" of Pasquotank County snow and call it a day.