bdgwx

You often see hints of higher instability on the DGEX, but even that isn't much different than the GFS when comparing theta-e values.

There have been several estimates of the maximum wind speed put forth. The 494 page NIST report has a pretty thorough analysis of the event from pretty much every angle imaginable (I mean, it is 494 pages afterall). It looks like the estimates ranged from 170-230 mph with those on the lower end of that range being more realistic. The report said the EF5 rating was the result of the manhole covers and tractor trailers. Though I'm unsure what context the later is in reference to. I also read that the rebar anchored parking bumpers influenced the rating as well.

That spot in eastern Nebraska looks interesting on the 12Z GFS. The bulk shear is about 40 kts and nearly perpendicular to the boundary. There may be a short window of discrete supercellular activity. But the one thing that looks off is the 0-1km and 0-3km shear vectors are displaced to the east. It looks like convective activity will upscale quickly to an MCS and take advantage of an increasing nocturnal LLJ focused near or south of the NE/IA/MO border area.