bdgwx

St. Louis got a pretty decent snow. I'm sitting at around 3.0", but I'm on the low side of the range that has been reported around the metro area.

I only mean that CO2 is adjusting the overall energy budget by perturbing some of the longwave channels as opposed to the other channels. As a result its effect is more pronounced on the Qout side than the Qin side due to its spectral behavior in relation to the precise nature of the Earth/Sun radiation fluxes. I'm not sure what your point was about "there is NO balance never". Anyway, we're starting to digress here as the physical process behind polyatomic molecule's propensity to trap heat isn't directly related to the subject of this thread. We're trying to discuss Arctic sea ice extents here. If you have questions or comments regarding other topics of climate change maybe it would be better to post them in another thread? There's a whole forum dedicated to this.

13.1" at St. Louis? 0Z NAM - Cobb method StnID: kstl Profile Thermal Adjust: 0.0 Cloud RH threshold: 85% Average Hourly Sounding: NO Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF S%| I%| L% ============================================================================================================================ 181115/0100Z 25 03006KT 32.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 181115/0200Z 26 03009KT 31.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 181115/0300Z 27 03009KT 31.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 181115/0400Z 28 04007KT 31.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 181115/0500Z 29 04007KT 31.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 181115/0600Z 30 02007KT 28.8F SNOW 12:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.126 12:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 181115/0700Z 31 01008KT 28.8F SNOW 11:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.153 12:1| 3.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.28 100| 0| 0 181115/0800Z 32 01008KT 28.8F SNOW 12:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.117 12:1| 4.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.40 100| 0| 0 181115/0900Z 33 01009KT 28.8F SNOW 11:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.141 11:1| 6.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.54 100| 0| 0 181115/1000Z 34 01009KT 28.7F SNOW 13:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.120 12:1| 7.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.66 100| 0| 0 181115/1100Z 35 01008KT 28.7F SNOW 14:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.104 12:1| 9.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.76 100| 0| 0 181115/1200Z 36 01007KT 28.8F SNOW 15:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.081 12:1| 10.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.84 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 181115/1300Z 37 36006KT 29.0F SNOW 13:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.041 12:1| 10.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.88 100| 0| 0 181115/1400Z 38 35006KT 29.4F SNOW 10:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026 12:1| 11.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.91 100| 0| 0 181115/1500Z 39 34006KT 29.7F SNOW 9:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024 12:1| 11.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.93 100| 0| 0 181115/1600Z 40 33007KT 30.5F SNOW 9:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021 12:1| 11.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.95 100| 0| 0 181115/1700Z 41 32007KT 30.8F SNOW 11:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.030 12:1| 11.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.98 100| 0| 0 181115/1800Z 42 31007KT 31.0F SNOW 12:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031 12:1| 12.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.02 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 181115/1900Z 43 30007KT 31.4F SNOW 15:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037 12:1| 12.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.05 100| 0| 0 181115/2000Z 44 30007KT 31.5F SNOW 7:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.036 12:1| 13.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.09 100| 0| 0 181115/2100Z 45 29007KT 32.3F SNOW 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015 12:1| 13.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.10 100| 0| 0 181115/2200Z 46 27005KT 32.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 12:1| 13.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.10 0| 0| 0 181115/2300Z 47 26005KT 32.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 12:1| 13.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.10 0| 0| 0 181116/0000Z 48 25005KT 31.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 12:1| 13.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.10 0| 0| 0 ============================================================================================================================

It's true. The 2007 summer minimum was lower than in 2018. However, if you integrate the sea ice extents over the entire year and assuming 2018 follows the 2017 trajectory the remainder of the year (a reasonable assumption) you'll find that 2018 results in less ice than in 2007. Except that's really moot anyway. Keep in mind that when we say "decline" we are talking about a longterm secular decrease in sea ice extents. We are not in any way implying that every year will necessarily be lower than the previous. Natural variation is still very much in play. And we aren't necessarily even focused on just the summer minimum. The winter maximum and, of course, the yearly mean are equally important metrics. Regarding your second point there may be some confusion as to what a greenhouse gas does. CO2 and other polyatomic molecules (like H20, CH4, and CFCs) aren't sources of heat. What they do is disrupt the balance between Qin (the incoming shortwave radiation) and Qout (the outgoing longwave radiation). This imbalance creates a net positive gain in heat uptake in the geosphere (90% goes into the hydrosphere) until a new equilibrium is achieved such that Qin = Qout once again. It's really not much different at a conceptual level with the insulation in your home. All other things being equal your house will achieve an equilibrium at a lower temperature if there is no insulation. Again, CO2 is not a source of heat. What it does is impede the transmission of heat.

Let me clarify something. Consensus is not itself a form of evidence. Rather it is born out of the abundance of evidence. Specifically it is the consilience of evidence from which a consensus is born. In other words the reality tends to land in the spot where there is the best overlap of available evidence. What I find often in the blogosphere is that they are brainwashing people into believing that consensus is bad and outlier is good. They do this in a variety of guises but the main issue is that they simply don't tell you about the abundance of evidence from which the consensus came and instead focus solely on outlier lines of evidence. Of course it doesn't help that evidence supporting the consensus is often misrepresented or misinterpreted and that the outlier evidence often has significant issues which is also not presented to you. This is actually a big problem with the internet today in general but specifically with climate science. The fact is that the Earth is going to experience a persistent net positive radiative forcing as a result of human activities (including but not limited to CO2). And baring any significant and unpredictable events like significant volcanic eruptions or other cataclysms the entire geosphere will respond with an increase in heat uptake and an increase in temperature. This will put longterm downward pressure on sea ice (especially in the Arctic region) resulting in ice-free conditions in the summer months with the most likely timing being around mid century assuming a business-as-usual representative climate pathway. Different RCPs yield different amounts of warming at different times. Dismissing the abundance of evidence (a mountain of evidence in fact) that has been collected over the last 150+ years isn't going to stop CO2 from producing a positive radiative forcing on the planet or stop the declining trend of Arctic sea ice extents.

I get that, but this thread is focused on Arctic sea ice. Judith Curry makes several points in her blog and none of them were directly related to sea ice. Don't get me wrong. They're good talking points, but they deserve their own thread. That way we can address each talking point via several posts without taking this thread too far off course. That's what the climate change subforum is for afterall. Post another thread and I'll participate as I get time.

Can you post a new thread? I was trying to avoid hijacking the Arctic Sea Ice thread to talk about non sea ice specific stuff.

From the NSIDC... "Why extent remains so low in the Barents Sea is not immediately clear from patterns of atmospheric circulation and temperature. October air temperatures at the 925 hPa level were only 1 to 3 degrees Celsius (2 to 5 degrees Fahrenheit) above average, associated with a trough of low pressure at sea level extending from Iceland into the region. While further investigation is warranted, this lack of ice growth may relate to the observed “Atlantification” of the Barents Sea, in which the cold, low density surface layer of the Arctic Ocean has weakened, allowing the heat from the warm Atlantic waters to more readily inhibit ice formation. It will be instructive to monitor ice growth rates in this area through the coming winter."

I guess where I was going with my post was that if we are to accept that sea ice was broadly lower in the holocene when temperature were also likely lower than that supports or is at least consistent with future sea ice decline predictions. Afterall, if we can show that sea ice was lower with lower temperatures in the past then there's no reason to think sea ice can't be at least equally as low or even lower with higher temperatures today. In other words, that's not really a good line of evidence to present if the point is to challenge sea ice decline predictions. Also, there may be some confusion as to what AGW actually is. Modern climate science has built a consensus around the idea that there are a lot of physical processes in play that modulate the climate and that these process ebb and flow with respect to their individual radiative forcings. AGW is just the moniker given to how the accepted model plays out in regards to the state of the climate system today. It doesn't ignore any physical process that is modulated wholly by natural cycles. It's just that the natural modulation has been dwarfed by the anthroprogenic modulation mainly after WWII. Remember, the laws of physics don't really care if a CO2 molecule was emitted by man or by nature. It still gets it's molecular vibrational modes activated and send radiation back to the surface all the same. It's the same with any greenhouse gas species or aerosol particle. They behave the same and with the same magnitude regardless of how they entered the atmosphere. That's why modern climate science theory can be applied equally to both the past and the present. Don't get me wrong. I'm not under any illusion that the current model is perfect. It isn't and it never will be. That's par for the course in any scientific discipline. However, the current model does have demonstrable explanatory and predictive power. It works very well all things considered. And if you remove a component (say CO2) from consideration the usefulness of the accepted model is weakened. Afterall, ignoring CO2 or even assuming the climate sensitivity to it is lower than the accepted consensus just makes it more difficult to explain both past and present climate change. If you have a proposal for lessening the radiative forcing or sensitivity of CO2 then it needs to be replaced with something else. Can that something else explain the faint young Sun problem? Can it explain the cooling stratosphere simultaneous with a warming troposphere? Can it explain heat uptake by the geosphere (mostly hydrosphere) in the presence of flat to declining total solar irradation? Nevermind that we'd still need a good reason to replace CO2 in the first place. Those are just some of the questions that need to be answered convincingly if you want to me dispense with 120 years of research culminating in a mountain of evidence that supports the idea that CO2 really can have a significant influence in climate change today.

Let's assume for a moment that this new biomarker proxy evidence for global sea ice extents can be accepted as consensus. That's a big if by the way, but let's go with it for now. What do you think this would suggest in terms of explaining the aggressive declines in the Arctic and the relatively flat trend in the Antarctic in recent decades? Even more importantly what would it say about future trend trajectories?

Note that Comiso does not include data after 2015 which saw anomalously low sea ice extents. And to provide some balance to the quote above this also appears in the article. "The positive trend, however, should not be regarded as unexpected despite global warming and the strong negative trend in the Arctic ice cover because the distribution of global surface temperature trend is not uniform." The authors note that the positive trend from 1979 to 2015 could be linked to 1) higher frequency of cool phase ENSO cycles 2) freshening of sea water and/or 3) ozone depletion by CFCs. It seems as though there are two mains points to the publication. First, the positive trend is real. Second, it's difficult to test the various hypothesis to explain the trend because the CMIP5 suite of models does not adequately predict the trend as-is in the first place.

The Euro has some similar eye candy as well.

That's a great writeup bluewave. It's interesting how the variability in OHC declines through the years. By the 2000's the upward trend is very steady with little variation. Is there an explanation for this effect?

The following quote clears up Gensini's statements above. “This is what you would expect in a climate change scenario, we just have no way of confirming it at the moment,” He's saying they don't know why STP values are increasing/decreasing the way they are, but the effect is consistent with the expectations of climate change. Being consistent with an expectation doesn't validate the hypothesis behind the expectation though. More (and different kinds) of research need to be done to definitively link the cause with the effect.

Last night's Euro run was +4.5 SD at 168 right over the pole.

So by their estimate ice-free conditions will happen sometime between 2030 and 2045. That's not really out of line with other estimates. With each new study it's looking more and more likely that it'll take a miracle to make it to 2050. The IPCC is probably going to have to quicken the pace on their estimates for the AR6 report due out in 2020 or 2021.

I don't have the latest data, but the last RMS HWind post on twitter had Florence at 60 TJ of energy at 18Z.

We should definitely encourage cleaner energy sources regardless of one's views on climate change. But, we know for an absolute fact that many polyatomic molecules (like CO2) have heat trapping properties that necessarily cause the geosphere to warm. More GHG emissions necessarily mean more radiative forcing. That's not to say that naturally modulated processes aren't in play, but reducing man made emissions would reduce the anthroprogenic modulation which as of the present represents the vast majority of the total modulating effect. That's not delusional. That's fact. Regarding whether or not "old school" farming techniques can significantly mitigate the anthroprogenic element...I'm skeptical.

Anyone have low down as to how Mangkhut figured out a way to break the HWRF?

It looks like the core is starting to come into range of KMHX. The angle of approach is putting that right flank parallel to the beam. I'm getting 80 kt winds at 25,000 ft in that region. Not that we didn't already know, but making some guesstimates based on what little is in range I'll say hurricane force winds extend 55nm from the center on the right flank and 30nm from the center on the left flank.

I just wanted to say that I learn a lot from Stebo and the other degreed mets on this forum. Actually I can extend that to many other non-degreed posters as well. So thank you all for the wealth of information you provide and stoking my interest in weather.

12Z SHIPS RI probability is 5% for 20 kts in 12 hours. It is essentially 0% for all other time frames.

If history has taught us anything it's that integrated kinetic energy is a better discriminator for storm surge than the maximum wind speed. And Florence has a lot of IKE right now.

Florence has 100 TJ of kinetic energy now.

Yes. All 3 operational cyclone models do this. You'll find the coupled SST products at the following links. HWRF: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/vxt/HWRF/ HMON: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/vxt/HMON/ COAMPS: https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/web/tc