bdgwx

0Z DSHIP is aggressive with intensification in the near term. * GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IAN AL092022 09/26/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 57 66 77 88 104 117 116 112 99 87 75 65 54 45 36 30 V (KT) LAND 50 57 66 77 88 99 112 111 107 94 82 51 34 29 27 27 28 V (KT) LGEM 50 55 61 70 81 89 115 111 97 82 67 43 32 28 27 27 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 3 0 2 4 3 7 17 24 37 36 41 36 44 35 39 42 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 0 -1 -1 0 2 2 3 3 3 4 0 -3 -4 -3 5 SHEAR DIR 40 96 293 310 170 173 195 211 216 248 240 252 242 244 235 237 239 SST (C) 30.0 30.2 30.1 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.0 29.5 29.4 29.5 28.9 28.5 28.0 28.2 28.3 27.6 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 170 172 172 172 171 171 169 159 156 158 149 143 136 138 140 133 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 167 170 167 168 166 160 152 138 133 134 126 120 113 113 116 112 106 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -52.2 -52.1 -52.5 -51.6 -51.7 -50.9 -50.9 -50.7 -50.7 -50.4 -50.1 -50.2 -50.6 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.3 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 7 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 73 72 73 73 72 66 57 48 39 34 34 41 45 46 43 40 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 20 23 26 29 35 34 36 33 31 28 27 23 20 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR 63 50 43 66 80 64 92 114 120 133 113 82 82 65 50 51 54 200 MB DIV 107 106 53 66 112 69 91 97 78 61 79 72 44 31 28 48 52 700-850 TADV 6 9 7 7 5 7 5 4 3 4 -2 9 9 15 13 8 29 LAND (KM) 311 347 369 267 147 3 208 241 188 156 58 -88 -181 -202 -286 -468 -603 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.8 18.7 19.7 20.6 22.5 24.4 26.1 27.2 28.2 29.4 30.7 32.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 80.9 81.7 82.5 83.1 83.6 84.2 84.6 84.6 84.6 84.4 84.0 83.5 83.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 11 10 10 9 7 5 6 7 7 7 6 8 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 50 58 66 83 105 94 86 40 32 32 44 3 2 3 3 2 1 Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.3% 68.7% 56.0% 38.4% 30.7% 74.3% 66.8% 32.1% Logistic: 19.1% 72.0% 58.6% 54.2% 36.0% 47.8% 31.3% 0.4% Bayesian: 4.3% 51.3% 30.4% 15.2% 11.2% 32.5% 22.6% 0.2% Consensus: 13.9% 64.0% 48.3% 35.9% 26.0% 51.5% 40.3% 10.9% DTOPS: 12.0% 98.0% 94.0% 91.0% 34.0% 89.0% 97.0% 64.0%

That's a pretty significant shift east on the OFCL track. One other notable change is that while the 8pm track had an increasing right component to it's track the 11pm track may even have an ever so slight left jog keeping it more parallel to the coast for longer.

Yeah. It's looking like the odds of an oblique landfall angle or coast hugger have increased per model guidance today. Just because the ensembles are focusing on a more northward landfall does not necessarily mean the populated areas along the west coast of FL will be spared.

The 18Z cycle of the big 3 ensembles is in. The intersection of the uncertainty rings still suggests the big bend area of Florida is the best estimate of landfall. It is very difficult to make out due to the large nature of the uncertainty rings but the intersection point for HR96 while close to the coast is further away than what the 18Z operational ECMWF or EPS mean are suggesting due to the influence of the GFS and UKMET suites pulling it further west. However, the uncertainty rings are fairly wide at HR96 and even the combined uncertainty of the 3 at the intersection point is still going to be fairly large as well and likely inclusive of a landfall near Tampa. The point...areas from Fort Meyers and especially Tampa on northward should still keep a close eye on possible south and east adjustments to the track resulting in larger impacts for those areas.

A blend of the 12Z cycle GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET ensembles are showing a landfall south of Tallahasse, FL between hour 120 and 144. It looks like this is a tick west of the 2pm EDT NHC official track.

The intersection of the HR144 1σ rings from GEFS, EPS, and MOGREPS has landfall near Cedar Key, FL north of Tampa. This blend of the global ensembles is consistent with the 8pm OFCL track. One interesting aspect here is that MOGREPS takes a western track early and then takes a sharper turn to the NE than the GEFS and EPS. It appears there is a slight tick east relative to the 12Z cycle with the passage through the Yucatan Channel and clipping Cuba on this cycle.

I should add that the intersection of the 3 HR72 1σ rings (GEFS, EPS, MOGREPS) places Ian on a path through the uprights of the Yucatan Channel albeit on the eastern side.

The big 3 are in. It is very difficult to make out because of the large spread but it looks like the intersection of the 3 HR120 1σ rings keeps Ian well off the coast at around maybe 25.2N, 86W. This appears to be well left of the 2p EDT OFCL track though still in the cone.

Somewhat interesting is the fact that the trough in play here is carrying with it some of the energy from Typhoon Merbock whose remnants caused a lot of problems in Alaska just a few days ago. Merbock has obviously disintegrated with its remnants scattered all over the place now, but it played an important role in the evolution of the trough and to a lesser extent and by proxy the phasing with Fiona today. Butterfly-Effect.

As of 9/23 15Z per the NHC wind field the IKE is 152 TJ. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 936 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 80NE 100SE 60SW 50NW. 50 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. 34 KT.......250NE 300SE 150SW 160NW.

As of 9/23 12Z per RAMMB wind field the IKE is 72 TJ. As of 9/23 9Z per official NHC wind field the IKE is 149 TJ.

Several of the UKMET ensemble members push AL98 into the Yucatan and enter into the western GOM.

12Z UKMET crosses western Cuba and enters the eastern GOM heading north and then takes the turn NE heading toward the FL coast well north of Tampa at hour 168 as a "meh" tropical storm.

Just for fun I plugged in that HWRF wind field into the IKE calculator and got 180 TJ and that's with some conservative assumptions I made due to the extreme inhomogeneity in the field. That is on par with Isabele and tops Sandy. I doubt it actually gets that high, but like I said earlier I would not be surprised if it goes above 100 TJ.

As of 15Z... Based on RAMMB wind field product IKE is now 82 TJ. Based on NHC official wind field IKE is now 74 TJ.

0Z UKMET crosses the far western tip of Cuba and enters the eastern GOM. By hour 168 it is moving due north.

12Z UKMET crosses Cuba and puts AL98 into the eastern GOM and off the coast of FL at hour 168. It's kinda "meh" in terms of intensity though.

Using the RAMMB multiplatform wind field product the IKE is 68 TJ. Using the official NHC wind field the IKE is 39 TJ. The wind field is forecast to expand significantly as it phases with the trough so I would not be surprised if the IKE climbs above 100 TJ as it approaches Canadian coastline.

0Z UKMET shifted north quite a bit. It is now in the general vicinity as the 0Z ECMWF despite being weaker.

12Z UKMET is at 18N, 83W at hour 168. For point of comparison ECMWF is at 22N, 83W so this puts the UKMET left of the ECMWF track.

Plugging in the GFS wind field into the IKE calculator yields some gnarly looking values.

The COCORAHS station in St. Peters (just west of St. Louis) record 11.00" in 7 hours. The station is located 38.8 N, 90.6 W. According to the Precipitation Frequency Data Server this is easily a 1-in-1000 year event.

STL broke the calendar day rainfall record in only 6 hours. The previous record was 6.85" on August 20th, 1915. As of 7am STL had 7.97" today.

HadCET just updated. The highest daily mean in the Central England Temperature record dating back to 1772 just got SHATTERED. Here is the sequencing of the records of the highest daily mean. Date Highest Daily Mean 1772-08-10 22.5 1783-07-11 22.6 1808-07-13 24.5 1948-07-29 25.1 2019-07-25 25.3 2022-07-19 28.1 Here is the full 251 year list sorted in descending order on the highest daily mean for that year. Prior to 2022 the mean of this list was 21.0 C with a standard deviation of 1.6 C. 2022 is 4.4σ above the mean. Note that the distribution is right tailed so that 4.4σ figure may be a bit misleading. Year Highest Daily Mean 2022 28.1 2019 25.3 2020 25.2 1948 25.1 1995 24.8 2015 24.7 2006 24.6 1808 24.5 1976 24.5 1990 24.4 1852 24.0 1923 24.0 1818 23.9 1911 23.9 2003 23.9 1975 23.8 1825 23.7 2016 23.6 1943 23.4 2005 23.2 1868 23.1 1930 23.1 1942 23.0 1989 23.0 1947 22.9 2001 22.9 1826 22.8 1858 22.8 1932 22.8 2013 22.8 1817 22.7 1921 22.7 2018 22.7 1783 22.6 1983 22.6 1997 22.6 2009 22.6 1773 22.5 1830 22.5 1847 22.5 1952 22.5 1876 22.4 1878 22.4 1884 22.4 1901 22.4 1949 22.4 1950 22.4 1834 22.3 1873 22.3 1900 22.3 1906 22.3 1912 22.3 1926 22.3 1941 22.3 1957 22.3 2021 22.3 1793 22.2 1859 22.2 1925 22.2 1933 22.2 1996 22.2 1836 22.1 1856 22.1 1935 22.1 1955 22.1 1779 22.0 1814 22.0 1846 22.0 1872 22.0 1893 22.0 1953 22.0 1820 21.9 1842 21.9 1869 21.9 2011 21.9 1780 21.8 1790 21.8 1792 21.8 1819 21.8 1986 21.8 2017 21.8 1800 21.7 1881 21.7 1897 21.7 1936 21.7 1968 21.7 2004 21.7 1778 21.6 1844 21.6 1871 21.6 1898 21.6 1961 21.6 1970 21.6 1984 21.6 1999 21.6 1798 21.4 1870 21.4 1937 21.4 1969 21.4 2002 21.4 1850 21.3 1874 21.3 1917 21.3 1959 21.3 2000 21.3 1797 21.2 1807 21.2 1837 21.2 1885 21.2 1924 21.2 1982 21.2 2008 21.2 1775 21.1 1822 21.1 1824 21.1 1854 21.1 1944 21.1 2014 21.1 1804 21.0 1857 21.0 1914 21.0 1929 21.0 1945 21.0 1781 20.9 1828 20.9 1886 20.9 1934 20.9 1973 20.9 1987 20.9 1772 20.8 1803 20.8 1899 20.8 1938 20.8 1786 20.7 1795 20.7 1827 20.7 1835 20.7 1896 20.7 1980 20.7 1794 20.6 1904 20.6 1918 20.6 1939 20.6 1967 20.6 1810 20.5 1848 20.5 1866 20.5 1994 20.5 1998 20.5 1788 20.4 1843 20.4 1916 20.4 1960 20.4 1991 20.4 1992 20.4 2012 20.4 1776 20.3 1784 20.3 1838 20.3 1851 20.3 1855 20.3 1867 20.3 1940 20.3 1774 20.2 1801 20.2 1813 20.2 1831 20.2 1887 20.2 1782 20.1 1880 20.1 1894 20.1 1981 20.1 1985 20.1 1791 20.0 1833 20.0 1909 20.0 1958 20.0 2010 20.0 1787 19.9 1832 19.9 1865 19.9 1895 19.9 1902 19.9 1971 19.9 1977 19.9 1802 19.8 1821 19.8 1946 19.8 2007 19.8 1905 19.7 1796 19.6 1840 19.6 1845 19.6 1864 19.6 1877 19.6 1888 19.6 1903 19.6 1785 19.5 1806 19.5 1861 19.5 1863 19.5 1908 19.5 1919 19.5 1951 19.5 1966 19.5 1978 19.5 1979 19.5 1777 19.4 1922 19.4 1928 19.4 1964 19.4 1913 19.3 1927 19.3 1988 19.3 1993 19.3 1789 19.2 1823 19.2 1875 19.2 1915 19.2 1972 19.2 1963 19.1 1812 19.0 1829 19.0 1849 19.0 1805 18.9 1839 18.9 1883 18.9 1892 18.9 1841 18.8 1853 18.8 1910 18.8 1799 18.7 1889 18.7 1931 18.7 1956 18.7 1811 18.6 1891 18.6 1965 18.6 1974 18.6 1809 18.5 1816 18.5 1815 18.4 1879 18.4 1882 18.2 1920 18.2 1954 18.2 1907 18.1 1890 18.0 1962 18.0 1862 17.3 1860 17.2