bdgwx

If it's not obvious yet I'm big fan of ensembles. There is a proven a record of superior forecast skill when using ensembles. I do like Tomer's super ensemble as well. My only complaint is that I *think* it only includes the deterministic UKMET run and not the actual ensemble suite. The only place I've found to get the UKMET ensemble is the RAMMB site.

This is now a bit a old. I'm posting the 0Z big 3 ensemble so that it can be compared with the 6Z cycle that should be available in about 30 minutes. The 0Z cycle was showing the head fake toward the coast but ultimately held firm with the landfall near the big bend area of FL. I suspect the 6Z will be a tick west of the 0Z due to the big shift from the ECMWF suite.

That is really old. The 9/26 6Z is way west. Like...way...WAY...big cave to the GFS and even further kind of west.

0Z DSHIP is aggressive with intensification in the near term. * GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IAN AL092022 09/26/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 57 66 77 88 104 117 116 112 99 87 75 65 54 45 36 30 V (KT) LAND 50 57 66 77 88 99 112 111 107 94 82 51 34 29 27 27 28 V (KT) LGEM 50 55 61 70 81 89 115 111 97 82 67 43 32 28 27 27 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 3 0 2 4 3 7 17 24 37 36 41 36 44 35 39 42 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 0 -1 -1 0 2 2 3 3 3 4 0 -3 -4 -3 5 SHEAR DIR 40 96 293 310 170 173 195 211 216 248 240 252 242 244 235 237 239 SST (C) 30.0 30.2 30.1 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.0 29.5 29.4 29.5 28.9 28.5 28.0 28.2 28.3 27.6 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 170 172 172 172 171 171 169 159 156 158 149 143 136 138 140 133 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 167 170 167 168 166 160 152 138 133 134 126 120 113 113 116 112 106 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -52.2 -52.1 -52.5 -51.6 -51.7 -50.9 -50.9 -50.7 -50.7 -50.4 -50.1 -50.2 -50.6 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.3 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 7 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 73 72 73 73 72 66 57 48 39 34 34 41 45 46 43 40 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 20 23 26 29 35 34 36 33 31 28 27 23 20 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR 63 50 43 66 80 64 92 114 120 133 113 82 82 65 50 51 54 200 MB DIV 107 106 53 66 112 69 91 97 78 61 79 72 44 31 28 48 52 700-850 TADV 6 9 7 7 5 7 5 4 3 4 -2 9 9 15 13 8 29 LAND (KM) 311 347 369 267 147 3 208 241 188 156 58 -88 -181 -202 -286 -468 -603 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.8 18.7 19.7 20.6 22.5 24.4 26.1 27.2 28.2 29.4 30.7 32.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 80.9 81.7 82.5 83.1 83.6 84.2 84.6 84.6 84.6 84.4 84.0 83.5 83.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 11 10 10 9 7 5 6 7 7 7 6 8 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 50 58 66 83 105 94 86 40 32 32 44 3 2 3 3 2 1 Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.3% 68.7% 56.0% 38.4% 30.7% 74.3% 66.8% 32.1% Logistic: 19.1% 72.0% 58.6% 54.2% 36.0% 47.8% 31.3% 0.4% Bayesian: 4.3% 51.3% 30.4% 15.2% 11.2% 32.5% 22.6% 0.2% Consensus: 13.9% 64.0% 48.3% 35.9% 26.0% 51.5% 40.3% 10.9% DTOPS: 12.0% 98.0% 94.0% 91.0% 34.0% 89.0% 97.0% 64.0%

That's a pretty significant shift east on the OFCL track. One other notable change is that while the 8pm track had an increasing right component to it's track the 11pm track may even have an ever so slight left jog keeping it more parallel to the coast for longer.

Yeah. It's looking like the odds of an oblique landfall angle or coast hugger have increased per model guidance today. Just because the ensembles are focusing on a more northward landfall does not necessarily mean the populated areas along the west coast of FL will be spared.

The 18Z cycle of the big 3 ensembles is in. The intersection of the uncertainty rings still suggests the big bend area of Florida is the best estimate of landfall. It is very difficult to make out due to the large nature of the uncertainty rings but the intersection point for HR96 while close to the coast is further away than what the 18Z operational ECMWF or EPS mean are suggesting due to the influence of the GFS and UKMET suites pulling it further west. However, the uncertainty rings are fairly wide at HR96 and even the combined uncertainty of the 3 at the intersection point is still going to be fairly large as well and likely inclusive of a landfall near Tampa. The point...areas from Fort Meyers and especially Tampa on northward should still keep a close eye on possible south and east adjustments to the track resulting in larger impacts for those areas.

A blend of the 12Z cycle GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET ensembles are showing a landfall south of Tallahasse, FL between hour 120 and 144. It looks like this is a tick west of the 2pm EDT NHC official track.

The intersection of the HR144 1σ rings from GEFS, EPS, and MOGREPS has landfall near Cedar Key, FL north of Tampa. This blend of the global ensembles is consistent with the 8pm OFCL track. One interesting aspect here is that MOGREPS takes a western track early and then takes a sharper turn to the NE than the GEFS and EPS. It appears there is a slight tick east relative to the 12Z cycle with the passage through the Yucatan Channel and clipping Cuba on this cycle.

I should add that the intersection of the 3 HR72 1σ rings (GEFS, EPS, MOGREPS) places Ian on a path through the uprights of the Yucatan Channel albeit on the eastern side.

The big 3 are in. It is very difficult to make out because of the large spread but it looks like the intersection of the 3 HR120 1σ rings keeps Ian well off the coast at around maybe 25.2N, 86W. This appears to be well left of the 2p EDT OFCL track though still in the cone.

Somewhat interesting is the fact that the trough in play here is carrying with it some of the energy from Typhoon Merbock whose remnants caused a lot of problems in Alaska just a few days ago. Merbock has obviously disintegrated with its remnants scattered all over the place now, but it played an important role in the evolution of the trough and to a lesser extent and by proxy the phasing with Fiona today. Butterfly-Effect.

As of 9/23 15Z per the NHC wind field the IKE is 152 TJ. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 936 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 80NE 100SE 60SW 50NW. 50 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. 34 KT.......250NE 300SE 150SW 160NW.

As of 9/23 12Z per RAMMB wind field the IKE is 72 TJ. As of 9/23 9Z per official NHC wind field the IKE is 149 TJ.

Several of the UKMET ensemble members push AL98 into the Yucatan and enter into the western GOM.

12Z UKMET crosses western Cuba and enters the eastern GOM heading north and then takes the turn NE heading toward the FL coast well north of Tampa at hour 168 as a "meh" tropical storm.

Just for fun I plugged in that HWRF wind field into the IKE calculator and got 180 TJ and that's with some conservative assumptions I made due to the extreme inhomogeneity in the field. That is on par with Isabele and tops Sandy. I doubt it actually gets that high, but like I said earlier I would not be surprised if it goes above 100 TJ.

As of 15Z... Based on RAMMB wind field product IKE is now 82 TJ. Based on NHC official wind field IKE is now 74 TJ.

0Z UKMET crosses the far western tip of Cuba and enters the eastern GOM. By hour 168 it is moving due north.

12Z UKMET crosses Cuba and puts AL98 into the eastern GOM and off the coast of FL at hour 168. It's kinda "meh" in terms of intensity though.

Using the RAMMB multiplatform wind field product the IKE is 68 TJ. Using the official NHC wind field the IKE is 39 TJ. The wind field is forecast to expand significantly as it phases with the trough so I would not be surprised if the IKE climbs above 100 TJ as it approaches Canadian coastline.

0Z UKMET shifted north quite a bit. It is now in the general vicinity as the 0Z ECMWF despite being weaker.

12Z UKMET is at 18N, 83W at hour 168. For point of comparison ECMWF is at 22N, 83W so this puts the UKMET left of the ECMWF track.

Plugging in the GFS wind field into the IKE calculator yields some gnarly looking values.