CAPE

40 minutes ago, frd said:

Last week the forecast was for sunny weather for multiple days in a row despite any effects from Erin.

This week at Dewey has been nasty. Constant cloud cover, mist, high winds, high waves.

It has been a record in terms of high humidity and high dew points both nationally and globally. 

 

 

 

 

The forecast last week was dependent on the exact track, strength, and timing of Erin. There was a fair amount of uncertainty at that time. Had it recurved sooner and tracked further offshore, the weather this week would have been quite a bit different.

Ridgely is on the edge of it. Close to an inch there.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
700 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Central Caroline County in eastern Maryland...
  South Central Queen Anne`s County in northeastern Maryland...

* Until 1100 PM EDT.

* At 700 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
  heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2.5 and 3.5 inches of
  rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 1 to 2 inches in 1
  hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in
  the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin
  shortly.

8 minutes ago, SnowtoRain said:

0.29", missed all the heavy rain, over 1.0" just 2 miles west of my location. 0.78" month

 

@CAPElooks like just to your south persistent heavy rain

Yeah Tuckahoe is getting hammered. Flash flood warning in that area. Fun for anyone camping there tonight.

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Will those showers actually make it to 95??

Interesting there are showers moving SE to NW towards the bay and showers moving NW to SE towards I-95 at the same time.

I predict a convergence zone with incredible lift and flooding somewhere between the Fall line and the bay. 

Heavy shower just passed through here. 0.23". Best stuff is SW of here.

1.68" since Sunday and 2.3" for the month.

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Elias will absolutely blow smoke up our collective asses that a rotation of Rogers, Kremer, Rodriguez, Bradish, and Wells/Povich/Suarez/whomever can go all the way next season and it’s a joke. 

He needs to be fired, or given an ultimatum to improve the team through free agency. Every prospect can't be off limits. The guy is weird.

Looks like Bradish and Wells will be back in the Bigs and pitching in the next 2 weeks.

Quote

BOSTON—Pitcher Kyle Bradish is nearing the end of his long rehab. Bradish, who had Tommy John surgery in June 2024, will have one more rehab start at Triple-A Norfolk before he returns to the Orioles sometime between August 25th-27th during the Orioles-Red Sox series at Camden Yards.

Bradish’s return will precede by several days the mandated roster expansion on September 1st when the Orioles will add another pitcher and position player.

Interim manager Tony Mansolino said a six-man rotation is a possibility.

“As we get into September, and we get the extra guy, I think it will be an interesting conversation on the six-starter thing,” Mansolino said on Monday before the Orioles started a two-game series against the Red Sox. “It’s definitely something we’re discussing, not anything we’re committing to quite yet. There’s probably a pretty good chance that it happens, but we’ll see.”

Tyler Wells, who also had right elbow surgery in June 2024, will get two more rehab starts at Triple-A Norfolk, so he could be added a few days after Bradish.

https://www.baltimorebaseball.com/sports/orioles-mlb/2025/08/18/bradish-return-orioles-starting-rotation-next-week-richdubroff/

Add them to Rogers and Kremer, and you have the makings of a solid rotation with Povich and others in the mix, and Grayson possibly back next season. That said, can't count on so many guys rebounding from serious injuries, so we need an actual GM who will be aggressive in signing a top tier pitcher in the offseason.

Looking at the latest ens means, nothing but normal to below normal temps in sight through the end of the month and into the beginning of Sept. Once Erin passes, dewpoints will be in the comfortable range. Looks like some of the upcoming nights will feature temps in the mid to upper 50s. Bring it!

0.12" yesterday and overnight from showers and drizzle.

1.35" the last couple days including the Sunday night storm.

66 with some light showers moving through from NE to SW.

.05" so far

Kinda like that it stayed cloudy and damp today after the heavy rain last night. Keeps the moisture around. Downside is those Asian tiger mosquitos don't need much water lying around to keep the cycle going.

2 minutes ago, SnowtoRain said:

Completely fell apart as it came through Easton, 0.07", going to get real crispy down this way

I noticed. That sucks. Been happening here a lot recently. Finally got a direct hit.

1.2"

Bull's eye. Been forever.

Getting crushed. Heavy rain and lots of T&L. Been awhile.

Just now, dailylurker said:

So... your corn field is too dry lol. Mine is still too wet!

I don't grow crops. Grass mostly gone. Sunflowers dried up. Most of the plants are still ok but I need to start watering more regularly if it doesn't rain soon.

46 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

My farm field needs less water.

You- My corn field needs more water.

Me- My corn filed needs more sunny mornings. 

Some other dude- My corn field needs cooler weather.

Grumpy ass farmers are never satisfied. 

No rain here in over two weeks. Everything's dried up/dead, except weeds.

IDGAF.

1 minute ago, frd said:

 

OMG, you didn't go there.    

Well, he manages to claim victory if winter in the east is cold/snowy regardless of how his postulation works out.

19 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

I picked up 4” on 10/29/2011 and 4 more inches total the rest of the winter.  

We just cant know the character of winter until the rate of change of snow cover advance over Eurasia is determined during the month of October. 

Probably looking high temps upper 70s to low 80s with reasonable dewpoints if this verifies.

5 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

September 2017 had an early cold shot, only to have the equinox have a high in the 90s. That following winter had an 80 degree day in February. At the time it was the earliest 80 on record.

Without digging into it, I would guess there probably isn't much of a correlation between early Fall cool periods and the overall upcoming winter pattern. It's just too soon for the character of winter to show its hand, for many reasons.

Maybe @psuhoffmancan shed some light on this.

2 hours ago, kgottwald said:

Never mind the back-and-forth, I'm just thoroughly tired of the 70+ dewpoints, which according to the AFD won't be decreased by the upcoming "cold" fronts. Can't wait for the cooling trend.

Early next week the dewpoints will still be on the higher side due to the flow around Erin as it passes off the coast. Also depends on how close it tracks to the coast- Euro has it a bit closer. Mid to late week when winds shift to the N/NE on the backside drier air will work in. Looks like dewpoints may drop into the 50s to low 60s.

C'mon y'all. Can't we all just get along? Maybe Mitch misread and thought that dude was speaking of mountain west states. Mitch was a long time resident of the MA sub forum before moving to PA. TheClimateChanger? No idea who this dude is. Doesn't appear he is from around these parts.

Another nothing burger. Barely enough to wet the ground yesterday, and another disintegrating line moving this way. Still at 0.63" for the month, which fell 2 weeks ago tomorrow.

Do I care? Not really. Plants are ok, grass is mostly dead as usual, and I'm going to plant clover in a couple weeks.

Still lookin good for some nice 'coolish' weather just beyond mid month with h5 ridge out west.

3 hours ago, dailylurker said:

I see that same weenie map every season. Worst of winter is right. 33 degrees and rain lol

Wow the Polar vortex is going to descend from the stratosphere and take up residence over the northern Plains.