CAPE

Not a drop here yet. Not mad about it. Hopefully it all misses. Been outside getting some yard work done.

4 hours ago, Ji said:

it really should. I have been calling for a storm in this time frame now since November haha

Early prediction for next winter- moderate to heavy snow event in the first 10 days of January for the lowlands. Easy. 

38 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

I'm thinking that @CAPE would agree with you, based on what he's facing on his "back 40" in the coming weeks...   

Late freezes don't have any meaningful impact on bugs. I mean, they manage to survive the winter. 

But speaking of the Spring woodland wetland, given the recent mild/wet spell, and the heat coming this week, first round of larvicide is going in this weekend. I have never done it this early before, but not taking any chances.

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Pd2003 was initially modeled as rain

PD? this would be closer to Easter. We always get KUs near Easter.

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

haha--those lowland people

Those people includes you. Or did you move?

That low is inland actually. Pretty low chance for frozen with that track in the lowlands. Not in late March. Head to Canaan.

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Even for my area it’s 35 during the height. It’s definitely snow but I doubt much accumulation at those temps. Places at or above 2000 feet sure! 

For those who want to see snow in marginal events with low pressure hugging the coast- especially in Spring- they know what to do!

Lots of buds on the trees with some leaf out here at work in Easton. March is the new April.

1.2" here today.

Good thing the the storm the other day underperformed. Only 0.32" from that.

Ditches full/overflowing, water laying all over the place.

Pouring over here. Can't wait for more this weekend. 

As I said many days ago, I am done chasing modeled epic h5 patterns at this juncture. If there is a legit signal for a snow event for the lowlands inside 7 days, I will show some interest. Unlikely, but not impossible. Btw, 'lowlands' includes you too Ji. 350 feet? lol

43 minutes ago, Ji said:

this is for @CAPEwho is only interested in chasing mosquitos now

 

One is reality, the other fantasy.

The Ji-WW alliance lol.

30 minutes ago, Ji said:

I’m with will. If the models are showing a winter pattern and there is a chance….im still tracking

The rest of you all can eat dirt lol

The rest of us just don't care at this point. 

32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Are you questioning his legitimacy as a meteorologist?   

"Supposed professional". Sure sounds like it. Not cool.

1 minute ago, Ji said:

You wanted a nino so..::

I wanted a Modoki with - -AO/NAO. This wasn't that. Not even close. We may never know if a 2009-10 Nino could produce anything close today.

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Agreed...everybody just needs to move the fuck on

Yeah, I have moved on to a 120. Only 1 left after this. 

Now that's a situation that demands some attention.

Enough with the snow fantasies. We rain. Until we drought.

Looks like another 2 inches of rain here tonight through Wed, followed by more rain this weekend. Oh joy. Combined with the mild temps, the mosquito larvicide will need to go in a couple weeks sooner than ever before. This is some real, actual tangible weather impacts worth discussing. Not some silly ass control run snow map for late March that has absolutely zero chance of verifying.

45 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Today is gonna be a beaut of a day. Get out and enjoy it. 

I have already been out there digging chickweed, dandelions etc. out of the mulch beds, getting ready to put fresh mulch down. Stuff is growing. More like early April.

44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Mine wasn’t a personal attack it was a valid question which you didn’t answer. During the winter when we do have a more realistic chance at snow you typically find the least optimistic piece of data. You never show some control run or cherry picked obscure op run that shows a big snowstorm. You typically show the ensembles and even then you usually tend to snow the least snowy presentation. If it’s snowy day 9 you will show the day 1-7 mean lol.  If the mean is snowy you will show the probabilities, which granted are a better way to depict our snow chances but still my point is you always show the most conservative guidance. 
 

Now it’s March and we’re looking at a period that’s very likely too late and now you’re cherry picking op runs and 600 hour control runs that show snow. My observation and question why is valid. And Zens conclusion you are trolling is a logical one given that evidence. If you have an alternative explanation feel free to provide it and set the record straight. 

When there is a legit signal for something he will post (mostly) snow mean/probability maps every cycle, ad nauseum. Those are the posts that annoy me the most, because there is never any analysis or interesting commentary. So it's not all deb stuff. Not sure he is trolling as such. WB maps galore!

It really is time to find something else to do.

41 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

I got 1.33” total and @EastCoast NPZ got screwed… yep winter’s officially over 

This will remain the same through Spring and Summer. You swamp while he desert.

0.85"