CAPE

Steelers literally steal Justin Fields from the Bears for a 6th round pick in next years draft. I predicted this was gonna happen when they traded Pickett, but not for that meager price. There are bunch of teams that need a QB, and none were willing to give up a late round pick for this dude?

55 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Not sure I want it to be simple...but just to make some kind of sense! I'm still not 100% past irony of the whole warmer planet but cooler ENSO thing, but at least when you mention trade wind things makes that make more sense to this layman (wind blowing on water making it cooler=something that makes sense)

But to your point about the transient cold shots being common...so you're in the thinking that it's not happening more than it used to, but it just feels that way?

No. This isn't arbitrary. You need to read more. Google can be your friend, as long as you don't fall prey to disinformation. Plenty of that available on the subject.

Chilly morning, and a high of 62. Full sun. Hard to beat.

2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

This is the part of this new...whatever it is I don't get: Why is it that these late freezes have become more prevalent while the winters have been warmer? Although I think @psuhoffman said the Springs aren't getting cooler by the numbers...but why then are we seeing this more? Like...shouldn't a warmer background mean this doesn't happen as much? Make it make sense, lol

Transient cold shots(relatively speaking) in late March into April are pretty common. Freezing temps probably don't occur as often, but it still happens. None of this is as simple as you would like it to be.

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

How is asking you a simple question “trying to drive you away”?  You’ve criticized the use of certain indices commonly used to identify analogs. So isn’t it a fair question then how you identify analogs?  You say you want non model focused discussions but 3 times recently when I attempted to engage with you in exactly that way by asking a benign question, you got weirdly hostile.  
 

As for stalking… 

There is no criteria.

50 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EURO control Day 8

I offer you a challenge for next winter- make useful posts that add something of value and interest to the discussion. Copying and pasting WB LR snow maps multiple times a day, or every other day, especially without any context, is so boring.

High of 77. Currently 75 at 530. No UHI here. Amazing. March is the new May?

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Go outside. 

Yes. It's 80 muthafucking degrees in DC. lol snow.

16 minutes ago, 87storms said:

The 18z gfs provided a friendly reminder that it needs to be cold for it to snow.

Yeah good luck with the 'bring the precip and I will take my chances' mantra. That rarely works outside of the western highlands these days. Need a legit cold air mass in place, and sometimes a wave moving along a thermal boundary with Arctic air pressing can work.

3 hours ago, BristowWx said:

It’s pretty amazing how this winter ended up.  As bad as I could imagine this was worse.  Take out that one good week in Jan and it has to rank as top 3 worst ever. Maybe not snow depth but overall winter feeling.  My house is literally hot today.  See you guys in Nov.  cheers and god bless! 

Glass half full- we had a period with 2 snow events a few days apart, in the heart of winter. Snow on snow (here at least). There was a deep winter feel for 10 days. With a bit of luck/better wave timing, it could have easily been better. We had nothing like that last winter. Expectations were too high, as usual. We suck way more than not when it comes to snow, regardless of Enso state. As for the seasonal/extended models and the persistently epic h5 looks depicted, lesson learned. Boilerplate warm ENSO. Lets remember that as we transition into a Nina, and we see consistently shitty looks advertised by the same models for next winter.

10 minutes ago, Ji said:

EPS had some massive hitters at 00z---gone at 12z. this hobby sucks ass

Yes, having a hobby with a singular desired outcome that you have no control over and is a rare occurrence is pretty sucky. 

High of 68. A beautiful day for April 12th.

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We all really need to move.

Only time the grass is dormant/ I can't put (cool season) tall fescue grass seed down and expect it to germinate is early Dec through late Jan- not necessarily because of temps or lack of precip, but because the sun angle is low/days are too short. Probably would grow if that period torched with a persistent SE ridge. Coming soon..

3 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Ravens are about to sign Derrick Henry. 2 year/$16 million. 

A bit worried about the mileage for a 30 yo back, but seems like a good move given they let Gus walk. Should be a better version for a year or 2 if they are able to find replacements for the missing pieces on the OL and actually improve that unit, which was pretty mediocre at times last season. Ravens will find some hidden gem RB in the later rounds or as an UDFA. Mitchell probably won't be a factor this season- probably won't be ready to play at all until Dec at the earliest. Who knows about Dobbins.. might be time to move on.

4 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GFS

Hudson Bay!

9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

12z GFS aleet aleet

The Ji-WW alliance would prefer you post this in the other thread.

I might have headed to Canaan if I didn't have a class this week. Looks fun.

https://www.canaanresort.com/resort/webcams/

After some morning sun and calm, clouds rolled in quickly and the wind just picked up dramatically. Moderate shower now.

9 hours ago, CAPE said:

0.48"

Looks like one last line of showers may come through with the front after midnight.

0.63"

3.15" for the month.

The seasonal wetland is expansive and knee deep in places. Just put some larvicide in, 2 weeks earlier than normal.  Last year at this time the water table in that area was still below the surface.

0.48"

Looks like one last line of showers may come through with the front after midnight.

33 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB latest GEFS control, always two weeks away....

Yeah, so why post these maps lol. Pure fantasy at day 15, even in the heart of winter.

34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That isn’t even that good a look. Implies the amplification happens too late and north. 

Most of the depicted looks we have seen this winter have been flawed in one way or another in the LR. Plenty of (probably) unwarranted excitement(me included) about the NAO domain in particular at range, as there were signs over a series of ens runs that it wasn't going to be a sustained legitimate block, but rather more of a transient, weaker feature induced by wave breaking. The guidance also largely duped us with the strength/position of the Aleutian low. That said, we fail plenty with so called 'ideal' patterns, and score in those that are flawed. As you know, weird things can happen as we get into early Spring, but snow in the lowlands has become more unlikely recently, esp in the cities.

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I actually went the other way. Absent an arctic airmass, which we just don’t have, I was thinking we need NS involvement. Without a phases bomb not sure how we cool the boundary layer enough.  I hope we get a test case for our theories. 

Depends on the exact outcome desired. A relatively small scale, well timed wave(at night) tracking underneath with some dynamics and cold/dry air in place can produce a moderate event in late March. It has happened here a few times. Its one of those deals where it snows hard with the temp falling to freezing overnight, and by mid afternoon the next day its 45 and pretty much gone.

1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said:

How is this thread so active when I need to mow my lawn?

Because advertised favorable h5 looks like this 10+ days out cannot be ignored, and almost always verify and deliver. We have the last 3 months as solid evidence. Give your lawn a close buzz in preparation.

1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said:

Got in 5 miles of a 7.5 hike at Soldier’s Delight area in owing mills in just a mist. Last two and a half miles it opened up and poured. That said looks like the heaviest this AM went up to PA and is still heavy up there while just light here. And looks like the heaviest later is over toward 95 and eaat toward @CAPE.  Probably a precip minimum for this event in and around the beltways compared to north and east anyway…

.07"

Looks like the heavier showers this evening might pass mostly south of here. I would love for this to bust, not that this area was forecast to get the heavier rain. Most guidance had a half inch or so total.