CAPE

Good thread from griteater on the pattern progression wrt AAM and MJO.

5 hours ago, Ji said:

Such boring model runs. 01-02 all over again

But the GFS gave you digital snow.

High of 38 here.

Currently 31 at just after 5pm.

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

There are a lot of variables. generic phase 7 is warm in January. However 8 is cold. And cold enso 7 is cold. So Imo where in 7 matters a lot and so does what the soi is doing. If the Nina influence wanes we would need a further profession if the mjo to see the same impact. I suspect somewhere between 175-180 there is the flip where we can get the epo ridge nudged far enough east to kick the trough out of the west.  The guidance is teasing us with the wave stalling right around that magic spot. 

Good way to describe it. And why would we expect that not to be the case lol. Never easy, esp in a Nina.

Latest edition of the weeklies looking good into mid Jan.

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I am getting a little nervous of what happens if the mjo stalls in 7 and never progresses. Frankly the dominant convection has stalled almost in 6. The really good roll forward analog projections are based on the fact that a high amplitude phase 6/7 almost always makes it to 8. But there are always exceptions. The mjo dying in phase 6/7 would possibly muck up my expected pattern progression. I’m not favoring that att but doesn’t mean I’m not aware of it. 

Yeah something to monitor. The Canadian ens and Euro ext have it approaching/barely making it to phase 8 then into the COD. In the case of the Euro X it takes a while to get there- around mid month- which makes sense given the Euro gets stuck in phase 7.

Latest CFS forecast looks okay.

11 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I mean...it wouldn't be a bad thing, but something is obviously wonky. Seems odd that there would be a huge jump in where convection blows up from one day to the next.

Its effed up. I looked this morning and it just had the gray and no lines plotted. The latest Euro forecast seems to get stuck in phase 7 for a while.

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

EPS is pretty chilly coast to coast at the end of the run.

Im gonna pretend that is snow cover

Got some work to do. At least the model is indicating a chance of frozen southward in the LR. We got nothing for the next week at least.

EPS is pretty chilly coast to coast at the end of the run.

Low of 22

44 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Huntley has looked very impressive in his playing opportunities. Wouldn’t be shocked if he gets some interest in the off-season.

Steelers 

12 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Lost another game going for 2… WTF?

And even if they would have made it, Rodgers gets the ball back in regulation with probably 40 seconds left and 2 timeouts only needing a FG to win. This one really made no sense.

And again the play design was dumb. A rollout to Andrews with not much space. There were no other receiver options on the play unless Huntley reversed and ran back the other way in which case he would probably have been sacked.

Taking the FG on the first drive might have helped too.

18z GEFS is back to looking more like the EPS in the EPO domain for early Jan.

EPS looks better up top than previous runs. I hope Weather Will doesn't panic because it doesn't yet have blue over us on this panel, and it did previously.

15 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

First event of the season will probably be stumbled into 4 days out. Couldn’t care less about the pattern for January at this moment.

We(collectively) tend to pay too much attention to the advertised LR pattern/teleconnections when we are currently in a shutout pattern, esp when it offers some promise of better times. Can't get to focused on the details when we are looking at guidance 10+ days out.

Need to watch the 'trends' on the means with the Pacific ridge in the LR. Really want that more poleward (-EPO) rather than a broad, flat ridge further south/west, otherwise it might be tough to get cold air bleeding southeastward without a hella west based -NAO. The GEFS  has moved in that direction, although it seems to shift the ridge northward right at the end of the run. That's the primary reason for it delaying the eastward progression of cold, but the -NAO is also less impressive the last couple runs. Really need that to be stout if the Pac isn't going to be at least somewhat favorable.

Not a huge fan of Heavy Seas in general, but the Double Cannon DIPA is a goodie. Nice balance of hops and malt, a bit creamy, very drinkable. The 9.5% abv is very well hidden.

4 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Cold today.. -NAO comes into initialization, and it really fades out on LR models. 

Now if you had said the -EPO has faded on the last couple runs of the GEFS, I might agree.

2 hours ago, leesburg 04 said:

I have always fully recognized the difficulties of predicting weather and have defended weathermen when people say "I wish I could still get paid and be wrong 50% of the time" ....i guess I will still defend weather people in general but I continue to be totally amused at how many people out there in the twitter world rush to be the first to predict something and just be flat out wrong. Sensationalism sells I guess....even if you're wrong

Judah knows his shit.   He always claims victory, one way or another. Pinned that baby!

5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Doesn’t seem very positive to be talking about the end of the major pattern to more wintry weather before it even gets started.  But if the GEFS extended control which now goes through Jan 22 were to verify, most of us would see January as a good month.

The ens mean is 4-6" for areas east of the mountains for the same period. LR snow maps all suck, but isolating the control run is utterly useless. We could each draw up our best eye candy maps and it would be just as likely to verify.. as in not likely.

After a few drops this morning, no precip in the forecast over the next 7 days. Great hiking weather.