CAPE

GEFS, EPS, and CMC ens all have a wave riding along the boundary with cold air pressing in the Jan 2-3 timeframe. This has looked like a period of interest and guidance has been hinting for a few days, but more impressive in last night's runs.  Looking at h5, the EPS and CMC ens have a somewhat deeper trough than the GEFS, implying a chance for a bigger storm.

The last 2 months have been a severely dull period weather-wise, outside of wind maybe. Our fave! 

Just had a legit(but brief) downpour and it seemed so bizarre. Honestly can't remember the last time that happened. 0.15" is already an overperformer lol. Forecast for tonight is a tenth or less, which is basically a broken record as any time there has been rain recently it's been insignificant.

52 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

That's awesome.  Makes me want to travel to see snow. I would consider western Maryland area like deep creek or close to there but even out there has been awful so far.

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-120.20927810878491&lat=39.32670071841457#.YceYY2jMKUk

There was at least 10" still on the ground before this.

I am prepared to travel most of Jan and Feb. Hopefully wont have to go too far, but we shall see. 

The Ravens debacle of a season continues. Josh Johnson is the starting QB at Cincy, with Kenji Bahar as the backup.

Pummeled. Now this is a white Christmas.

https://hdontap.com/index.php/video/stream/downtown-truckee-california

63 here. Actually enjoying today. Getting lots of stuff done outside. Much better doing it now than when its humid and 80 with bugs.

4 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

I like that time frame ever year

Outside of being stuck in a really crappy pattern like we have now, you gotta like the odds of seeing some snow during that period, climatologically speaking.

14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

^thats the look that we were first teased with for next week. Hopefully we get it to actually happen. Euro with a nice setup and a RIC hit verbatim on Jan 3. That’s definitely a window of interest for now.

With the advertised setup, the most likely failure mode for us for the early Jan 'threat' appears to be suppression lol.

12z GEFS looks like the 0z EPS with weakening Pac ridge, -EPO, and shift in the mean trough eastward with time. Still a pretty respectable -NAO too.

Lots of white Christmas out west.

https://hdontap.com/index.php/video/stream/downtown-truckee-california

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DoUOrTJbIu4

Watch with a drink of choice and live vicariously.

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

One positive over the last 24hrs for the GEFS and GEPS, at least , is that they have been restrengthening the -AO and -NAO at the end of the runs. Previously that was starting to break down (although always hard to tell how much is just reflective of ensemble spread). 

Yeah I have noticed that as well. The GEFS has backed off some on weakening the trough north of Japan in recent runs. That seems key in getting the Pacific to be more favorable, with the MJO progressing into phase 8.

Latest EPS gives us the look we want. Weakens the EPAC ridge and shifts it eastward with +heights into the EPO domain.

The first period of interest imo is still centered on Jan 3. As advertised, a temporary reshuffle of the Aleutian ridge shears off a vortex lobe and sends it southeastward, relaxing the western US trough, bringing colder air east/south and flattening the SE ridge for a time. Our region should be on the colder side of the boundary and there will be a chance for a wave or 2 to track along it. Beyond that the trough digs in out west again, but some signs of favorable change again towards day 15.

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Some hints at the very end of the gefs/eps of the pac becoming more favorable. Not great but serviceable. Vortex in NW pac weakens. Central pac ridge becomes less amplified and extends poleward. You can see the pna trough is digging less in response. It’s a look that could allow cold to press east more assuming we keep a serviceable look up top. Too far out to worry about details. 

I posted about the weakening Okhotsk vortex advertised on guidance this morning. It clearly plays a big role in sustaining a strong NPAC blocking ridge(wave breaking), so some weakening should occur if that trough dissipates. Seeing that in the ens means now, and in response the western US trough looks less 'diggy' and seems to broaden and expand eastward some with time. I am still not sure this is going to make a huge difference here without a shift in the tropical forcing further away from the MC. We really need the ridge to weaken a tad, shift east some, and ideally expand poleward into the EPO domain. It's a real pain in the ass. Seeing some slight improvement advertised on the means but difficult to say how meaningful/sustainable it ends up being wrt to sensible weather here. In addition the negative NAO is looking somewhat less impressive in the LR. It's a wait and see game as usual when we have a pretty shitty pattern in place.

2 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

GFS has a pretty dry airmass overhead... dews in the upper 10's - low 20's on Monday morning. Euro kicks everything just a bit N.  Wish I could say I trust the GFS but it seems like the euro has been winning this midrange battle with systems here lately. 

The main piece of energy tracks way NW, and it becomes a weak strung out mess as it moves east. Best chance of seeing anything 'significant'- frozen or otherwise- would probably be in the western part of our region, and mostly further north. Might not see anything from the metros point east.

24 minutes ago, Ji said:

Gfs has the cape storm!

A half dozen or so GEFS members have frozen for our area Jan 3-4 timeframe. It's a decent setup as advertised for a light to moderate event.

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Is this area circled in green where we need some help?  As the run evolves, higher heights replace the vortex and (I think) it helps weaken the strength of the western trough / pushes it east enough to dampen the SER.  It looks like this vortex is helping to reinforce the current Pacific look (?).

 

Yes.  If that trough dissipates, the Pac ridge should weaken some, and heights can build more into the EPO domain. We will see how sustainable this is if it plays out this way. 

Go Canada. Looks like a TPV lobe migrating southward as well.

6 hours ago, Ji said:

Big changes on gfs...trough kicked more east and epo looks better

The Okhotsk vortex that has been enhancing/sustaining the strength of NPAC ridge weakens dramatically towards the end of the GEFS run, and heights build a bit more over AK and poleward(-EPO). If that is real it would allow the western US trough to broaden and shift eastward some.

Canadian ens looks even better than the GEFS at the end of its run. EPS wants to mostly keep the trough out west, although it is expanding eastward at the end.

A little pre holiday (fantasy) cheer.

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

02-03, too, no?

Oh shit, yeah.

^Above my pay grade, but 86-87, 09-10, or 14-15 would work for me.

Utopias Barrel Aged WWS for HH.

Its basically Friday for the next 3 days. 

10 minutes ago, 87storms said:

i moved to frederick over the summer and my jeep has 106k miles on it now (though i could use new tires)...it needs to snow.

re 2013-2015...i personally think those are the gold standards for long winters here...certainly primo level.  maybe not the snowiest region-wide, but i know there were frozen ponds/lakes/canals both seasons...especially by feb '15.

This is from late Feb 2015 taken from Terrapin Park, east side of the bridge. Have not seen anything close to this since.