CAPE

Preliminary NTSB report has been out for a week or so. Interesting and informative read, but still unanswered questions. Plenty of discussion in my world regarding the sequence of events and some of the decisions leading up to the accident.

pdf download at the link below-

https://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/Pages/DCA24MM031.aspx

53 minutes ago, SnowtoRain said:

Thunderstorms popping on the Delmarva this AM

Some rumbles of thunder and moderate rain at my place. Looks like places just further south and east will do the best based on the position of the stalled front.

2 hours ago, frd said:

Do you have mushrooms in your lawn? I have hundreds. Crazy year.  Little sun and always showers.

A few have popped up here and there over the last week, but nothing unusual. I usually see a fair amount with all the trees and shade.

Pretty much peak lawn here(such that it is). Even with the clover and various other non-grass products mixed in, it is thick and lush and green. One month until the solstice, and it will be starting to struggle by then, and then it's all downhill on the way to mostly thatch by the end of July. The rinse and repeat will start a few weeks later. If only the days started getting shorter after today lol.

1 hour ago, BlizzardNole said:

Real nice looking week coming up, but next weekend.... just watch that "chance of showers and partly sunny" on Sat and Sun end up being rain and highs of 60

Looks like another cold front will stall across/just south of us end of the week. That could mean clouds with periods of showers through the weekend.

0.32" today and 2.43" for the month.

Coolish more than warm and humid. Good balance of cloudy days and sun. I'll take this any day for May. Goldilocks.

3 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

We have relatives coming in from south FL tomorrow.  They are gonna feel like they've landed in Scotland LOL

Can't believe tomorrow, MAY 18, will be the fourth straight Saturday of rain and highs in the 50s

Some of our recent weather reminds me of Summer in UK. I was there for two weeks in early August last year and I loved it. There was quite a bit of sun mixed in with cloudy damp days, but the warmest was a few days in the mid 70s. Best part is I was able to delete 2 weeks of experiencing protracted heat and humidity by not being here lol. It was gross returning to Philly and sweating on the shuttle from the Airport to the parking spot.

2 hours ago, IronTy said:

We had our one nice day of the week allotment yesterday...be prepared for another long stretch of crap weather and low clouds.

It will pass soon enough, to be replaced by months of relentless heat and humidity. I will enjoy the coolish, cloudy days while it lasts.

Rain was over by noon here. Ended up with 0.70".

Cloudy, cool, gloomy day.

Light to moderate rain falling this morning.

0.43". Most of it since midnight.

0.35" since midnight, most of that falling with the showers that came through this afternoon.

I got up at 4am and walked down to the end of my driveway. Looked up and the big dipper was right there. Beautiful starry sky but didn't see any Aurora action. I was looking west/nw. With the tree line I couldn't see due north or NE, and being half asleep I didn't feel like taking a drive. Congrats to those who saw it.

52 and drizzle

Picked up 0.35" with a loud storm around 2am.

Rain amounts look paltry for much of the area through Saturday evening on the 6z GFS.

1 hour ago, high risk said:

The afternoon NAM Nest and HRRR both suggest that SVR potential Thursday will be confined to south of a line from CHO to NYG.   LWX basically agrees in their afternoon discussion.

Mount Holly downplaying it as well based on last few model cycles.  

Forecast guidance continues to step back from the severe
weather potential for Thursday, though the situation remains in
a bit of a flux. A few things are working in favor for a
diminished severe potential:

1) Guidance continues to trend further south with the track of
our system, lending to a cooler, cloudier day

2) Convective-allowing models are suggesting an overnight MCS
across the southern Mid Atlantic will lift northward along a
warm front and arrive around or shortly after daybreak Thursday,
largely robbing our region of instability for much of the day.

Because so much of the aforementioned elements depend on the
evolution of severe weather occuring across the Tennessee River
Valley today, there remains a higher than usual level of
uncertainty within our forecast. At any rate, the warm front and
how far north it is able to travel will be the limiting reagent
for our weather tomorrow. North of the front will remain cloudy,
showery, and overall dreary with temperatures stuck in the mid
to upper 60s with an easterly flow. South of the front, warmer
temperatures in the 70s with diurnal heating will lend to more
instability developing through the day, resulting in a higher
severe weather risk. At this point in the forecast, the frontal
boundary is expected to stall out just south of the Delmarva
Peninsula, keeping much of the severe weather potential in our
forecast area suppressed.

At this point I hope I can get a quarter inch or so of rain out of this. The modest rain over the weekend didn't do very much.

39 minutes ago, high risk said:

 

     That would favor severe for sure, but the problem is that the ECMWF for now is alone in depicting southerly winds over the Mid-Atlantic.

 

Yeah the Euro is a bit more amplified, with the surface low positioned initially further north and a little stronger than most other guidance.

The trend tomorrow as the low passes by to our north is drying with westerly downsloping winds and lowering dewpoints.

Thursday is a better setup with the low track and a southerly warm, moist feed out in front over the region, especially east of the higher terrain.

Mount Holly mentions the potential in their morning AFD, but low probability for any convection to initiate.

For Wednesday, a weak area of low
pressure passes by to the north as it moves from upstate NY into New
England. An initial round of showers and storms associated with the
system`s warm front will be moving out through the first part of the
morning with skies then clearing and temperatures shooting up as the
area breaks into the system`s warm sector. Expect afternoon highs
generally in the low to mid 80s across the area except 70s right
near the immediate coast and over the southern Poconos. Dew points
will climb into the low to mid 60s through the late morning but then
should actually start to come down in the afternoon as a very weak
cold front starts to move through and the winds turns more westerly.
During the warmest part of the day dew points should be mainly in
the upper 50s to low 60s which isn`t too high. There could be some
isolated afternoon showers/storms developing but these would be few
and far between as it should otherwise be dry through the latter
part of the day. It is worth mentioning though that should any
showers/storms develop they could become severe as winds aloft will
will be quite strong with inverted-V soundings in the lower levels.
Damaging winds would be the threat.

20 minutes ago, toolsheds said:

thx!  makes sense and wanted to confirm that it indeed was the right way to build them.  Will let you know when I start catching some. 

The holes they bore are 3/8 to 1/2 inch diameter. Most traps the holes are drilled to half inch. Good luck!

8 hours ago, toolsheds said:

Looks great!  Going to build some for my yard too.  Did you angle the holes upward into into the mail channel, or were they drilled straight in? 

Drilled on an upward angle. The idea is once the bee gets in, it only sees light at the bottom and goes there thinking its the way out.

Some persistent light to moderate rain this afternoon after the spits and drizzle of this morning. Up to 0.65" for the event.

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

This weather sucks ass

Dw, we go from 50s and damp right back to 80s and humid in a blink. Seems impossible to get a few sunny days in the low 70s with a nice breeze and low dews.

30 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Definitely mushrooms! But I'm thinking it hasn't been wet long enough to find any. Well see. I lucked out here. The thunderstorm I got early Saturday morning really soaked the ground. I'm back to my normal swampy conditions. Other then that thunderstorm it's been sprinkles and drizzle and I'd be watering. 

The rain here has helped the areas I had already been watering, but outside of that a good soaking rain is needed.

A few light sprinkles this morning. Mostly an annoyance and doing nothing for the dry conditions.

0.44" for the 'event' so far. Just enough to dampen the top eighth inch of soil. Powdery dry under that.