40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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The qualifiers are starting to emerge in posts -
Said everyone before my two week prior boning lol
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Not sure about that....I mean, if they really tighten, maybe residence time is decreased and they collpase back se faster? NAM was kind of like that
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The only way this rule RE NW adjustment for band fails is if mid levels just fail to develop in time, but that is unlikely...question is more just about closure to prolong things.
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Typical? Its just all track specific....some deform me, some deform the Adirondacks...depends on track and size of circulation.
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Absolutely...thank you. Then correct that 30-50 mi further NW.
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I am assuming it won't place said gradient far enough west on model output.
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Right.....which is why they probably won't jackpot, as it looked like maybe yesterday. ORH will be just far enough west to get that, and I'll be just far enough east to miss it.
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YES. I am confident. Tremendous inflow
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I just don't see how WOR misses out if we take a compromise of the GFS and EURO......as is, EURO deforms Berks to near Dendrite, GFS like ORH to me. They probably won't jackpot, but a sizable storm to be sure.
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I would say look at the H7 temp gradient, which is where it should be according to the model, but adjust it like 30 to 50 miles NW, since this system will have such an overwhelming inflow. ...of course, this is all assuming that the model is synoptically well placed to begin with. If its track is too far east, then adjust even further NW.
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You aren't going to see the deformation zone show up in QPF charts.
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I don't that it will capture that late, or as early as EURO.
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It def. toned down quite a bit.
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UK 150mi west penalty for unnecessary roughness.
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If you don't hit at least 10", I will buy you a beer.
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Modeling that shows deformation over the cape is either going to end up over me, or even ORH.
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I still think deformation will make it further west than modeling, regardless of how far east it tracks.
