Jump to content

40/70 Benchmark

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    72,390

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    2008 did essentially the same thing...late-blooming Modoki.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    While I do think that there is some truth to this, I also believe that there is an element of projection at play here, too.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, and I am on record as having stated that if that global tendency doesn't shift by the end of the decade or shortly thereafter, then I will entertain that as a realistic possibility..but we aren't there yet.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, I agree...all I am intimating, and he appears to have become defensive. All I am saying is that I don't think this most recent 9 year stretch is a great period of time to test that theory because the baseline pattern was so awful, anyway. I'm not saying that identical patterns wouldn't necessarily yield less overrunning than they did 70 years ago...they probably would. But we need to remain mindful overattribution.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yup.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    The fast flow down your GI
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not even so much impugning the premise as I am merely arguing that there is another more obvious cause that is perfectly viable.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't agree-sorry. You are going to get a lower frequency of prolific overrunning snowstorms in a -RNA/+EPO/+WPO pattern, which has been the predominate paradigm since 2015....that was the case in 1763, and it's the case now. Take 2013-2014 for instance.....the fast flow wasn't prohibitive of overrunning that season, was it?
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I remember DT in like late November-early December essentially guaranteeing that we wouldn't see La Niña and mocking the CFS. Nice to see some validation after all of the time I put into that over the summer and fall. Now if it would just snow, that would be cool, too.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    And the shitty air masses make overrunning less likely, too.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, I understood just fine...my point is that I don't think that the last 9 years are a great sample because it's been so damn warm due to the awful Pacific.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes...but my point is that during +PNA/-EPO, as we have seen this year....the cold is there, which is a necessary component for overrunning.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, the fact that the pattern has been constant -PNA/+EPO/+WPO may have something to do with that, too.... all of the arctic highs have been out west...now this year, they aren't. No one is denying CC...but we can't totally dismiss fundamental synoptics, either....the pattern has largely sucked for 8 years....and it would have sucked 100 years ago given the aforementioned telecon alignment...albeit colder.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, how often have we seen appreciable +PP over se Canada that are of arctic origin?? I think we will/have been seeing that this year....add a WAR, and bang.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    One they pull all of that shit, you know a juicy Modoki El Niño will arrive next year lol
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Just overrun an arctic dome, and/or shear the shit out of a SW at a high enough latitude owed to a WAR and ...presto-
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, that compressed medium primarily inhibits major cyclogensis, no? Overrunning/SWFEs are one potential avenue around that...
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I could sense I would get called on that-
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is of course assuming nothing major pops up in January, which is still entirely possible....but I'm starting have some doubts.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Probably end up another subpar year, but I do not expect a bottom-dweller, either. February will be a "worse" look on paper, but I'll bet it's significantly more prolific in terms of SNE snowfall.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think we could see a nice stretch late month into February with a string of moderate events...kind of like a poor man's 12/2007 or 2//2014.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea...same. More power to those who consider a mood flakes a "snowy day", whether it's genuine or not....I can appreciate the ability to take it as it comes and not grow bitter.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is precisely the type of winter that I have positively zero use for....cold, nasty, biting wind and dry as a witch's c1It. Yea....please blast a 0* WC into the car seat as I carry my newborn into an appointment, but make sure not to give me any substantive snow to track, while hooking up everywhere else on the east coast. Reminds me of March 2014...equally miserable weather the month I lost my dad. Neat trick-
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Do we still have people waiting with bated breath for model output on this?
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    You know the season sucks when "continued improvement" is followed up by "C-1".
×
×
  • Create New...