40/70 Benchmark

Nah, should peak between -1.0 and -1.2...late SOI response will hold it back.

.04" Cracy that ACK is getting like 12/11/92 type of QPF.

Classic case of exaggerating the importance of a new tool or morcel of info...guy has been basing his entire analog composite on subsurface. Frankly, I'm not really concerned with 2025-2026 ENSO at this point, but I will add that La Nina remaining modest decreases the likelihood of El Nino next year (delayed oscillation theory), which is probably related to the subsurface issue. It has utility, but I just think he is overreliant on it.

@weatherwiz

The temp and precip anomaly plotting tool should be updated to include September 2024 soon...they are having some technical issues. Cc:[email protected] Fri, Sep 20 at 9:25 AM Hi Thanks for emailing. We are having unusual technical issues updating the dataset this month. We hope to have it updated soon. Cathy Smith answering for PSL data Show original message

No it doesn't...we just had a strong el nino with a deeply negative PDO last year.

"Pretty good"? -PDO is an absolute lock.

Same page.

A blend of those would be fine for many.

Totally agree. Yea, this is the problem that I had with that w QBO/La Nina and -NAO connection we spoke about yesterday...most of those seasons in that Weenie-Europe guy's composite were low solar.

Good luck with that, although I will say that I did not include it in my JJA H5 match composite. However, I think there are a multitude of other similarities. I have come to learn that its beneficial to be eclectic in your methodology.

I agree with that...probably similarly to the NAO in that while the DM mean will be decidedly positibve (not extremely so), there will be a month that counters the mean.

The 1951-2010 composite site is back up. https://psl.noaa.gov/data/atmoswrit/map/index.html However, they still haven't update the temp/precip plots to include 9/2024. https://psl.noaa.gov/data/usclimdivs/ Here is the old MEI data: https://www.webberweather.com/multivariate-enso-index.html

2022 is certainly a great analog. That season with a hair less amplitude out west and a bit of luck would have been okay at my place. I will take the under on that degree of amplitude out west again. I understand how everything looks, but the odds of getting that deep of a trough out west in the seasonal mean are pretty remote IMHO. Its like having everything line up for a big east coast storm and expecting a repeat of Feb 7, 1978 because of that...or having everything look great on a seasonal level and expecting 1995-1996 up and down the east coast.

I just meant "party" as in +PNA...probably should have worded that better. I just mean latitude will be probably be needed more in February than January. Obviously this is all just specualtion based on some preliminary stuff.

Another thing I have come to learn is that each time you think you have anything all figured out, your ass gets handed to you...and at somepoint the persistence forecasting crew will get a hot serving of tushy platter.

Yea, the devil is in the details....obviously its not going to be a 2015 orgie....but is it more like last year or 2020-2021, 2021-2022....or even 2022-2023 with a bit better luck.

I agree.

I wouldn't shut it down until Halloween as far as SNE is concerned.

Well, first of all, I never make hurricane season predictions...only prominent individual storms (I know that part wasn't directed at me personally). Secondly, I didn't say Feb was toast...I said the PNA party ends. You get very defensive whenever you perceive anything as unfavorable for winter activities. It may be toast for portions of the east coast for sure...but its September, dude.

I am seeing some signs of a pretty significant +PNA/+NAO that may drive things in January, before the Aleutian ridge retrogrades and puts an end to the party for February.

I think 80s are done...for me, anyway.

Rejoice...I'm so sick and tired of the 80s.

I think this is what earns people credibility on the internet today because the majority of folks on the web don't have it....distinsguishing oneself from the amorphous cluster of cyber-rehea is important and said accountability coupled with a relative modoicum of accuracy paves the pathway to earning the trust of the masses.