40/70 Benchmark

66.2 on the station at home...love it.

There is always a change with a weak ENSO....never a non-starter. That said, it could still be a terd...as we have seen for two years running.

I get that they are just anomalies, and not cool readings in the absolute sense.....but I would think that if the ambient sea surface is very warm, then that would accentuate the ability of the sliver of cooler anomalies to exert forcing. Not my area of expertise, though, so I'll defer on that. I'm not a math and physics guy at all.

John, I know you are big on the warming planet muting warm ENSO to a degree, but what are your thoughts on cooler ENSO events being augmented?

You can book a weak la nina this season IMO. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/08/weak-la-nina-peak-virtual-certainty.html

08-09 didn't really have NAO blocking...it was more EPO, like 07-08, but it was less hostile in the atlantic than 07-08.

All you can do is play the odds....two favorable (weak) ENSO events in a row sucked, so I wouldn't bet on a third.

Weak la nina is the second most favorable ENSO state.

Too early...I feel like recent summers have looked ideal in the north atlantic, only to end up having the NAO verify obnoxiously positive come winter. I do not that there is a propensity for a deeply negative NAO winter shortly following solar minimums...even raindance will tell you that.

Its been a great quarter century for the zealots.

The Jan 1978 event is one that nailed Gloucester with OES.

One part of my call that I was happy with was ENSO....I nailed that marginal modoki when most laughed at prospect of el nino...of course, the pattern reload took too long, which sunk the forecast, but that may be connected to the muted atmospheric coupling.

Hope my forecast is better than the last two lol

There is also a recency bias given that the last two vaunted meager warm ENSO events were let downs for the northeast....you need not look back very far to find meek warm ENSO events that were accompanied by mutant snows in the NE.

Well, if you think about it....the argument is that global warming is is having a muting effect on warm ENSO events....my train of thought is why would that not serve to augment cool ENSO events. I get that shorter term stochastic fluctuations are more relevent with regard to storm potential, but that doesn't negate the value of monthly aggregate calculations ...especially at longer, seasonal lead times. And while volatility of the polar fields is paramount with respect to optimizing winter storm potential, I would rather have a static negative node and positive.

Looks like either cool neutral of weak la nina incoming....I wouldn't assume a mild winter yet at this point. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/07/la-nina-wach-in-effect-for-winter-2020.html

Wrote a piece on the potential of an active tropical season amidst the pandemic. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/06/potential-tropical-implications-of.html

2017-2018 is actually one my favorite seasons inn a sneaky way.

That was up there with 4-1-97 for me...absolutely, positively #epic.

That event may be Methuen's #1....Feb 1969 was more, but longer duration.

I wouldn't worry yet if I were towu, either....we saw what happened after one early storm to kick off last year.

I think he's just pointing out that it wont be another 2015, which I agree with.

Agree. I expect near neautral or slightly positive PDO.

Yea, its not a bad match. I just didn't include it in the composite bc I binned by QBO, but ENSO is similar...just a bit more delayed. I think this warm ENSO event is a bit better coupled with atmosphere, though. We'll see.

I wasn't suprised at all.