40/70 Benchmark

An early Dec whiff south would be eerily reminiscent of last year, but still don't see that.

I respect your opinion, but disagree.

Alot depends on the verbiage...I mean, "blizzard possible next week"...is hype. Ryan was just flagging storminess with potential for wintery outcomes.

Yea, I, think any big fish waits until at least mid December.

When there is nothing else on the horizon, I routinely make general speculation at extended leads...did it yesterday. I don't consider that hype. To each their own-

Looks like a preliminary heads up to me...

Favored solution

Agree.

Looked like .75" to me.

Updated December thoughts...not much change. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/11/wet-holiday-travel-week-leads-to-onset.html

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/11/wet-holiday-travel-week-leads-to-onset.html The early December storm depends on how quickly that ridging node over Greenland displaces eastward.....faster will result in further north redevelopment, which is pretty much what I favor. However more reluctance for that to cede ground is more of a sne swfe or even late-bloom redeveloper. I like Maine most for that. Changeable NAO early month should trend positively as the polar stratosphere warms, and the pacific grows more favorable. We need the Pacific to drive especially mid December onward. Thaw later December or early January as meager warm ENSO forcing fades, and Pacific grows more hostile in advance of any sensible impacts from downward propagating polar stratospheric warmth. (December 15 maturation)? I would give the reemergence of any polar blocking until a good 3-4 weeks after that December 15 date to materialize, thereafter we await blocking. December is Pacific driven, with any major coastal snows resulting from transient neg NAO node teaming with favorable Pac between 12/5 and 12/15. However I am more confident in major Archambault potential nearer the end of this period, as maturation of any potential SSW could enhance the MJO in phase 8 on or about December 15th. Thereafter, we trend milder. Pacific deteriorates late December or early January, and then we thaw while hopefully awaiting downward propagation of mid December SSW to take hold mid January. Second half is blocking dependent with more la nina like Pacific. Just my two cents-

You, yea.....questionable here.

Right now, I don't like it for sne. Ridge node over Greenland needs to hang in longer.

I understand that, but my climo is a few Inches and I saw merely a few flakes. Relative whimper...especially considering the magnitude of the cold. It is what it is.

Its been a whimper for SNE.

I think he's just pointing out that it wont be another 2015, which I agree with.

Try now....PM storage was full

Probably.....hopefully we have it-

Back at it again..

Yes, Clarke's...

Same...thankfully, I'm not forecasting that.

Its a little more...forecast is slightly above. That season was normal to slightly below. We need second half blocking....that is the upward variance. Pacific won't be epic like 05 and 15..at least not for the whole season..

No. Not that warm.

No worries....its relevant.

Agree. I expect near neautral or slightly positive PDO.