40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Put the pipe down
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Its often right when aggressive with mid level warmth...
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NAM is usually most aggressive with mid level warmth....
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The indecies don't modulate weather, but they are man's attempt to quantify the complex pressure patterns that do. Pretty simple-
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Its not going to remain near neutral for long.
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I just meant that some blocking may help promote more phasing...
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Yes, absolutely. But the notion that substantial negative departures will be eradicated by the new year is dubious, at best.
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Yes, but I am only concerned with the northeast, so you need to understand the context. The storm track has favored the interior, but sne has been skunking NNE. ...inverse if last season's fortunes...fair? Perhaps not, but it is what it is.
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Note the increased aggression in the NAO regions; this trend continues, I suspect we are going to have a very merry holiday period...
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Pretty precarious trend on OP Euro...12z left, 00z Right. Huge sensible weather implications...not a fan of OP at this range, but 12z ens not out yet.
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Fine by me. How is the 27th for folks?
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Yea...this is what I was getting at speaking with Kev. Surface can trend as cold as it wants, but that won't compensate for the sheared dynamics.
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I had slightly below normal for us... coldest NNE, moderating as you head down coast..
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Indicies are a means of measuring hemispheric height and pressure patterns, which modulate our sensible weather. Any decent guidance will reflect this.
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Surface, totally plausible, but mid levels are what they are.
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I think we were on the same page regarding December being variable, but not lacking for chances.. that's worked out.
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False. Isotherm had a benign, mild month.
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The system is attenuating and mid levels are warming on approach...I don't see this one over performing like the last one, but maybe that changes between now and Monday night..
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Exactly.
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I'm suprised someone as bright as yourself would make such a silly comment. I don't rely on them. They are guidance. You never see them in my forecast...only self made crude ones. SWFE are not like the last system, as ratios will be 10:1 at best.
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Yea, it already looks like shit....the system becomes vertically disjointed and is sheared to crap when it hits the NAO. Helps surface stay colder, but less forcing and precip, too.
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No one south of pike gets 6-8" on the 00z Euro.
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Colder than 12z, yes. I said it doesn't give 4-6" s of pike.
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No it doesn't. Wxbell counts sleet
