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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    160mph gusts at Galveston island....yikes. Boivar peninsula 116mph....they were just leveled by Harvey 3 years ago.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Thanks, man. You may very well be right about the track....just a first call. Final will be tomorrow night. One thing I have been working on over the past year or two is not being so defensive with respect to forecasting and embracing mistakes as a vehicle for refinement. It tends to make your thoughts much more readable, too. I have also been trying to tone down the syntax and length to make it more appealing to read and less cumbersome.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    First Call for Laura, which will absorb Marco IMO. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/08/laura-steals-show-first-call.html
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    John, I know you are big on the warming planet muting warm ENSO to a degree, but what are your thoughts on cooler ENSO events being augmented?
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    You can book a weak la nina this season IMO. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/08/weak-la-nina-peak-virtual-certainty.html
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm especially skeptical it maintains that much intensity that far north, and somewhat skeptical it makes it that far west. We''ll see.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/08/double-trouble-in-gulf-of-mexico-next.html
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    08-09 didn't really have NAO blocking...it was more EPO, like 07-08, but it was less hostile in the atlantic than 07-08.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    All you can do is play the odds....two favorable (weak) ENSO events in a row sucked, so I wouldn't bet on a third.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Weak la nina is the second most favorable ENSO state.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Over such a small area prone to high winds...."who cares" in my book.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Congrats...
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it will be quiet for another week or so...
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    1938 wasn't purely tropical to my knowledge.....which is why it retained so much fury in conjunction with the insane forward motion.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Too early...I feel like recent summers have looked ideal in the north atlantic, only to end up having the NAO verify obnoxiously positive come winter. I do not that there is a propensity for a deeply negative NAO winter shortly following solar minimums...even raindance will tell you that.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Counts more than the frauds like Edouard that skirted east..
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    They are all retired.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Pending disaster in conjunction with covid, which is worst in cane country. I did a piece on this about a month ago....
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not sure, but not Michael....
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I was wondering what he meant...
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, that in conjunction with the longitude that has them tucked into the concave of the coastline.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, that in conjunction with the longitude of FL and GA....agreed.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think its because FL and GA have the most longitude on the east coast.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Thanks. The time is a challenge with a full-time job, wife and child, but I do my best. I think the fact that I glossed over local impacts is a byproduct of the time constraint. I need to do a better job of managing that, and I'm glad that Kevin called me out on that because it raises my awareness of it. My site is "Eastern Mass Weather", but I do try to cover all of SNE, and this system was memorable throughout W SNE.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I remember. What were the max winds in FL? That was an ill-advised post on my part because I was forecasting the storm to remain east of FL. It was more of a reflection of my bias of underestimating the impact in W SNE.
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