40/70 Benchmark

I agree. Will figure out some way to leave the index explanation out of the body next season.

At least Belicheck will have a jackpot on ACK to assuage the pain from the early post season exit.

I think what I can do is maybe group all of the "repetitive explanation of indecies" into one blog post, and hyperlink back to it upon mention of said indecies in the outlook. I'll try that next season because I think that will make it more readable.. Thanks for the feedback....really appreciate it.

This is good idea, but I felt as though lessons from last season informed this year...as for the bolded, I do that for my own benefit each season. I forget seasonal elements during the medium range forecasting year and offseason.

I'm going to do a better job of prefacing the entire document with instructions to scroll to the "Anticipated Seasonal Evolution" section at the end to just get to the forecast. I feel as though the research paper portion is nice refresher for me each season on the core elements of seasonal forecasting.

No. I posted an update narrative from latter December, along with a couple of excerpts from the original November release.

@CoastalWx This was written in November..I know it gets confusing with so much content. "The seemingly favorable antecedent conditions for the disruption of the PV in conjunction with both the observed north atlantic tripole over the summer, as well as the anticipated favorable Hadley cell configuration in association with the ongoing modestly warm ENSO event all favor increased blocking. However they are interpreted as being suggestive of perhaps one month during the coming period featuring one or more major and sustained blocking episodes. This will likely occur later in the season because conditions should be hostile for the development of sustained blocking during the first half of boreal winter 2019-2020 due to the considerable initial intensity of the PV, in conjunction with the delayed descent of the easterly QBO phase. This does not preclude intervals of negative NAO and bouts of wintery early season weather, owed to the elongation of the PV that is conducive to periodic and transient cold intrusions, as well expected volatility of the NAO modality. It is also important to note that while conditions appear favorable for at least minor disruptions to the PV, its recovery from any such occurrence is expected to be both proficient and timely. This is due in part to climatology favoring only minor assaults early in the season, as well as the anticipated resiliency of a potent PV denoted by +AO conditions presently observed within the polar stratosphere. Such a recovery period after any potential assault would likely lead to a protracted mid winter thawing period as the vortex reconsolidates and possibly becomes more circular in nature.

No ill feelings here. Never expected anything and it will be all a dream soon, anyway.

Totally in jest....no problem at all.

What in the Hadley Cell is your problem?

No, the call was made in November...I just updated in late December. The protracted thaw was always expected, but I increased the magnitude with the shorter lead time.

There is a seasonal progression section near the end....if you go to the thread, I have posted select excrepts. You seemed to get the gist when you posted last fall that "I hope you are wrong"...lol

I think my exact verbiage was "protracted mid winter thaw"....

There were a good amount of us who thought mid winter would be mild....I'm not sure it was "against the grain", so to speak...

Notice a trend? The H5 circle jerk isn't resulting in a ground orgy....so many different routes to boring. The "looks great at H5" battle cry works at day 4, but not really at day 1-2.

We thought the last one would press south, but models actually pressed too much.

The RNA is here to stay. I have been saying since last fall once it arrives, it will remain for the balance of winter.

I'm really not.

I'll be tracking it closely tonight

Tolland 56 and Methuen 30?

I'm sure Will remembers..

Same

Agree.