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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Longer range thoughts...no big changes. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/01/rumors-of-winters-demise-soon-to-be.html
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yep. We see it...but after last season..I get the trepidation.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Same page with respect to pending changes in the polar domain that are not captured among guidance just yet...all of the focus in on the Pacific, but it will end up both over the pole and Atlantic imo. I'm going to blog later today.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hi of 64 here.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree.. at least first half of March. Some signs the NAO may not take that long.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    63.1
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'd be stunned if winter is over on February 25.....mid March is doable. I will say that the RNA is going to return IMO, so they way you verify is if the Atlantic never improves.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think we see an early spring.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Probably St Paddy's day with maybe a brief respite.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Snooze fest for at least another week.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    43.3 @ home.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm rebounding nicely from my second seasonal bust last year, but I do wish that I had went with a higher temp departure for January....I need some frigid air during the second half of the month. Extreme monthly temp departures are always a crap shoot, though...I feel its more important to just get the positive vs minus correct, as well as the narrative of the overall seasonal progression. I mean....we weenie tag people for posting clown maps depicting extreme anomalies at day 13, nevermind week 13.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Perfectly stated. The pattern modeled is better than last season, and even last year wasn't as bad as the seasonal snowfall spreadsheet implies. Early December 2018 we all whiffed...early December 2019 MOST of us hit....that is the difference in seasonal snowfall to date.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, I just mean with respect to the polar domain over the past few weeks. I'm not saying that last year is an analog moving forward.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Comparisons to last year do have some validity, but I think that the fact that we have a QBO phase change to negative and do not have a SSW providing deconstructive interference is a game changer. I could see this upcoming PNA/EPO tandem pass the baton on to the NAO and keep things going for an extended period of fun through Feb and into March.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Completely agree.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't perceive it as being as wild as you do....we'll see.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree. This is another non-starter.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    C+ effort...not awful, nor great. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/01/verification-of-overnight-snows.html
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    All...
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I knew the ice was a sell for SNE.. saw that coming lol
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not a met, but I still like latter January and especially February. I think it becomes progressively lesa hostile for blocking from mid month into March. In the Pac side, I'm more confident of improvements in the EPO region, than I am with respect to the PNA.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Got flurries here...maybe closer to town can score an inch or so...
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Could be some light accumulation even up my way, contrary to many forecasts... https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/01/light-snows-overnight-followed-by.html
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I am all for it if we don't have an appreciable pack to preserve, it isn't around the holidays and it isn't going to snow. Lets do 70-
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