40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Frankly, at this moment, my primary concern is for a colder and snowier second half than I had envisioned. I am not that concerned about the call for an active December with seasonal to slightly above avg temps.
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This why I advise folks who are very invested to go into each season with a conceptualization of how you anticipate the season to evolve; obviously this will not always be correct, but it helps to ground expectations and guard against the fostering of short shortsightedness by unstable guidance.
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We had a system like that in January 2019. Yea, I was assuming that the air mass was in place. Man, if had that high on Saturday, then we'd still be digging out and the month would already be in the books as above climo snowfall.
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That high is perfectly placed. If that ensemble is correct....we're not seeing a straight rain within 10 miles of the ocean, at least not without hell to pay first. I don't care where it tracks.
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Yea, that 5" ice storm is akin to one of those provisional 2' inverted trough scenarios, while the model engineers a means to break the news to you that the weather ain't gonna do shit.
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MPV FTW
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I think being careful may be the course of least regret.
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Get used to that.
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Like how many times would Wiz mention the word CAPE in each post.
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Its very easy to shovel...low reality content.
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@snowstorms....no worries. I will delete a lot of this since its OT.
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Oh, okay. Well, my point was that el nino winters are usually more back loaded for SNE than la nina, but the caveat being that that maybe mostly due to February. You may have a case for March temps, however, I am more confident that el nino is better for March snow in SNE than la nina. Obviously its subjetive...I am talking about SNE because I live here and its a NE subforum.
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Euro will probably at least trend in that direction.
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The vast majority of climate data is technically statistically insignificant. I'm quite confident that you can run the data back to 1850 or whatever for Boston and mod-strong nina March will be below the general March mean snowfall.
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Mean snowfall of 9 Mod to strong la nina events IMBY since 1957 is 7.8".
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This is going to begin our 12/07, 12/08 like run.
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Are you really trying to compare March 2012 to March 2010? I think that you need to so some serious homework, and then reengage me.
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@ORH_wxman @CoastalWx I don't have the site on me...how much did Reading coop get in March 2008 and March 2012? TIA...
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Well, the past two el ninos were crap.....2010 was a fluke, and 2016 was the super event.
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Well, you live in Toronto.....no fan of winter weather residing in SNE should prefer a la nina March to that of el nino. I realize that there are exceptions to this.
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I had some snow grains around midnight, but no trace of it this AM.
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Not doubting that. I am just speaking to my interpretation of CNE, which ORH is not. Doesn't matter, anyway because trend is likely not done.
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Yea....expect this to be the theme of December. People are expecting 50's and driving rains wondering what happened once a winter storm is imminent.
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Latitude > elevation this weekend.
