jm1220

Brief moderate shower.

Sky darkening off to my west. Decent anvil associated with the incoming rain/storms. Looks like it actually might survive across part of the island.

That second highs map to me for Tue says SE wind which keeps it cool east of the city. So it looks like there’ll be some kind of front around or strong onshore flow. Low 70s is still perfectly fine though if we get sun and avoid stratus from the onshore flow.

The heat index makes it feel just as bad if not worse on LI now with the southerly winds in the summer and regular 75+ dews. In Aug if anything the seabreeze just makes it feel worse here. 92F with a 76 dewpoint is 105 heat index, 96/71 is 104 heat index. So both in terms of actual heat are just as bad. The worst places in a heat wave now are probably the north shore of LI/much of NYC that still heat up before the seabreeze kicks in and still terrible humidity, and less chance of the T-storms that often fire inland and die before reaching the coast. Like Bluewave says though it's only a matter of time before we get a big heat dome here like the rest of the country's seen where we all likely get well over 100 and some places like EWR reach 110.

Should end up in the mid 60s most spots if we don’t get a stiff seabreeze.

By 8:45 when I left my house it already warmed up quite a bit.

I never like seeing that massive 500 low east of us like that. From that view maybe we’re safe for a couple days but it’s not far off.

It’ll come sometime next month when the highs to the north/back door regime relaxes but unfortunately it probably comes with the 70+ dew points. Our best season with most comfortable conditions now is actual Autumn, and “winter” now is extended Autumn with a week or two of cold sprinkled in where we have to get our snow or we totally strike out.

Looks like FOK made it down to 24. Mid 30s in my area. As others said pretty impressive for this time of year.

It also looks like a central based Nina which is bad for E Coast snow south of far upstate NY/New England. Our odds small as they are hinge on the high ACE panning out, if that disappoints it’ll be an easy slam the blinds. Hopefully the high ACE means mostly recurves but the precip anomaly maps for summer hint at lots of activity off FL/Carolinas tracking north towards us vs OTS. These steeper Bermuda High ridges recently lead to more of these outcomes.

Let’s get it to a place where we have ridging east of us. If we have a deep trough of any kind over the Maritimes or W ATL, we maintain the threat of back door fronts. But the sharp cold shot looks less likely.

I like the very cold weather only in terms of the snow it usually means. We don’t normally get cold anymore without a snowstorm involved. But both are very rare now. But yep-useless/wasted cold is also the worst. We’re not near the Great Lakes where that means LES bands.

This Nina regime favors them for snow anyway. Just drive an hour or so up to the mountains when the rampaging Pacific jet storms come in.

At which point we go right to summer. Might actually be a decent enough stretch coming up starting on Sat for a few days before the next back door gunk.

And right on cue. We get teased with the warmth and the back door/drizzle garbage surges right in.