BlizzardWx

And nobody expects perfection! You did a great job this year. I'm really hoping your success keeps going because it would mean we are not done yet.

It would take a pretty sharp reversal to get decent cold anomalies in the plains compared to current guidance for Feb. We are going to be roasting at least first third if not first half of the month, like +10 F above normal if not more for my area. Of course January was like that and we still ended below normal because the last third of the month was so cold. But assuming models trend more favorably after any SSW maybe we still have time. I don't think it would take much of an eastward shift in the pattern mid month to turn that western trough into GB/Plains trough.

That's fair, but other ensemble guidance is mostly headed that way too. Will it verify? That is another story but in my mind you usually see hints showing up before it happens, so I am at least glad to see it starting to show up.

Interesting on some guidance, like last nights ECMWF, how quickly the mid level heights across higher latitudes increase after the PV split. Could be coincidence but I hope we can get this going in February rather than waiting till March to see impacts.

Apparently the CPC will start using RONI now in their discussions, just like Australia did last year.

I ran this for last nights CMCE. Starting to see more members showing the SSW.

That's an interesting idea because that is basically what you see on the weeklies. It just locks in and stays similar for the rest of Feb and into March.

So assuming our coming strat split happens, how long will it take to couple at the surface. I know @Stormchaserchuck1 might have stats on that.

We did do well! Models were trying to show 20+ inches just 24 hours out and I ended up with 7", but that is still a large storm for this part of the country. I think officially TUL had 8.7" spread over 3 days.

Well at least down here it looks like we finally get some winter this weekend. Although it still ranges from basically nothing on the ICON to a foot or more on the ECMWF. Right on schedule for Nina climo.

I certainly hope so. The short term pattern looks a lot like early December for my area with repeated glancing blows from dry cold fronts. A little bit of a signal for some kind of wintry system around the 25th.

Yeah that was me. Here you go! https://weathersigma.com/sst

It really was, a full 6 degrees above the old monthly record!

It was 86 degrees at my place today. I hope we can get some payback later into January. EPS weeklies definitely looking more promising mid month.

I do like the direction this is trending. Could finally send the cold south and start to get the STJ going too.