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November 26-27, 2013 Snow Event

WestCoaster

By WestCoaster,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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WestCoaster

WestCoaster

Posted
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 241533
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1033 AM EST SUN NOV 24 2013

 

...

 

THE WEATHER COULD GET MORE INTERESTING TUESDAY NIGHT. THREE OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE LATEST SREF GUIDANCE ALL SHOW A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK TO THE SURFACE LOW THAT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH FROM
THE GULF COAST STATES. THE GFS IS STILL THE ODD MODEL OUT IN THAT IT
TRACKS THE CENTER OF THE LOW FARTHER TO THE EAST. WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS NOW SHOWING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK...WILL SHOW AT LEAST
LIKELY POPS FOR MEASURABLE PCPN TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT PCPN
TYPE...BUT IF THE WARMER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES...THERE WILL BE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR A MIX OF PCPN...ESPECIALLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SITUATION SINCE THE THANKSGIVING
TRAVEL TIMEFRAME MAY BE SUBSTANTIALLY IMPACTED.

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Snowstorms

Snowstorms

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Posted

Quite a bit of waffling going on now from run to run. NAM has shifted considerably east from its previous run.

 

Yes still no consistency despite this being less than 72 hours out, its incredible. 

 

I suspect by tomorrows 12z runs will start getting a more fixed track being pronounced on the models along with the precip field. The 12z Euro Ensembles were slightly west of the OP. 

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Gilbertfly

Gilbertfly

Posted
Posted

some sampling on the way to help the models....

 

 

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0125 PM EST SUN 24 NOVEMBER 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z NOVEMBER 2013
         TCPOD NUMBER.....13-176

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:  NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:  NEGATIVE.

NOTE:  ATLANTIC WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS
    1. FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 71--
       A. A66/ DROP 9 (28.2N 93.8W)/ 26/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 01WSA TRACK66
       C. 25/2000Z
       D. 10 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED
       E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 26/0200Z

    2. FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 72--
       A. A66/ DROP 9 (28.2N 93.8W)/ 26/1200Z
       B. AFXXX 02WSA TRACK66
       C. 26/0800Z
       D. 10 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED
       E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 26/1400Z

    3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:  POSSIBLE
       A66/ DROP 9 (28.2N 93.8W)/ 27/0000Z.
 

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harrisale

harrisale

Posted
Posted

Even the GEM has marginal surface temperatures for snow, so whatever we may get will likely be quite wet. UKMET and the NAM showing just below zero on temps as well. Probably not enough precip for significant evap cooling either, as of now most models have us on the fringe of this system. GFS stays a bit too far east for more than a dusting but is a little colder with temps. Need the phase to happen earlier. Doubting any solutions over 3" for YYZ at the moment.

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Snowstorms

Snowstorms

Posted
Posted

Even the GEM has marginal surface temperatures for snow, so whatever we may get will likely be quite wet. UKMET and the NAM showing just below zero on temps as well. Probably not enough precip for significant evap cooling either, as of now most models have us on the fringe of this system. GFS stays a bit too far east for more than a dusting but is a little colder with temps. Need the phase to happen earlier. Doubting any solutions over 3" for YYZ at the moment.

 

Latest GFS shows about 5-8cm for Toronto/GTA. Latest RGEM through 48 hours looks very juicy. 0z Nam was slightly East of the area but it shifted slightly west of the 18z solution. 

 

It all depends how the models phase both the waves. Some models are too progressive with the streams and therefore the phases occurs a bit later. 

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WestCoaster

WestCoaster

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I have a feeling this really should be getting more attention than it is by EC. Not even a weather statement.

NWS has just issued a winter storm watch for the region as a result of this:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1016 PM EST SUN NOV 24 2013

NYZ001-002-010>014-085-251130-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.A.0003.131127T0000Z-131128T0000Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
1016 PM EST SUN NOV 24 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

* LOCATIONS...NIAGARA FRONTIER...THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTHERN
FINGER LAKES REGIONS.

* TIMING...EARLY TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

* HAZARDS...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS....POTENTIAL FOR 7 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED
ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO SNOW. SNOW COULD ALSO
DISRUPT EARLY HOLIDAY TRAVEL TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$

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Snowstorms

Snowstorms

Posted
Posted

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

 

Latest 0Z CMC shows a good dumping of snowfall for the GTA, around 10-15cm. Ottawa gets hammered but Montreal switches over to -ZR and rain. 

 

Ohio and areas around Buffalo/Niagara region get hit hard too. 

 

Edit: Make sure the Date is on the 25th, 0z*

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Snowstorms

Snowstorms

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Posted

Phasing starts too late with this one. Basically the GFS/GEM are as far west as you're going to get. And even if they verify, you run into thermal issues outside the higher elevations.

 

I'm definitely not rooting against my old stomping grounds, but this has DAB written all over it.

 

Excellent analysis. If the phasing occurred around Texas this storm would have tracked up the App mountains and would have retained a better precip field on the north side. If this had occurred, would have been a major storm for most of this subforum. 

 

I suspect around 3-6cm at for the GTA, maybe 8cm.  

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Trent

Trent

Posted
Posted

CLE has pulled out a watch for the far eastern Ohio Counties. I like the definite shift west overnight, but there's not much wiggle room for this.

 

Here's their current thinking:

post-599-0-24062600-1385378293_thumb.png

 

Gotta love some of those fantasy SREF plume totals for Cleveland:

post-599-0-12334400-1385378438_thumb.png

 

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buckeye

buckeye

Posted
Posted

For this area (CMH), for this particular storm 1-3" looks good and also looks like the best we could ask for.   Not much snow on the western flanks until you get further northeast.   Any stronger would mean more precip but more mixing too.   I'll take it, we haven't had a white thanksgiving in a very very long time. 

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Snowstorms

Snowstorms

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Starting to see some consistency on the models. Euro ensembles showed a bit more qpf than the operational and its line with what the UKMET, CMC and NAM are depicting. GFS is is slighty further east than the other models.

The timing of the phase is crucial with this storm.

As for the GTA, most models show an average of 7-15cm or 3-6".

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harrisale

harrisale

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Posted

EURO output text is encouraging, wish temps were a bit lower but we are lucky this will scoot by at in the evening/overnight hours.

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YYZ    LAT=  43.67 LON=  -79.63 ELE=   568


                                            00Z NOV25
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 

TUE 12Z 26-NOV  -1.9    -8.1    1021      69      15    0.00     549     532    
TUE 18Z 26-NOV   1.5    -7.8    1019      68      22    0.00     549     534    
WED 00Z 27-NOV  -0.1    -6.7    1015      88      98    0.03     547     535    
WED 06Z 27-NOV  -1.1    -5.8    1010      95      99    0.21     545     537    
WED 12Z 27-NOV  -0.9    -6.9    1004      91      96    0.16     540     536    
WED 18Z 27-NOV   1.3    -7.8    1001      72      47    0.02     533     532    
THU 00Z 28-NOV  -3.4   -10.5    1004      75      54    0.01     527     524    
THU 06Z 28-NOV  -5.9   -13.2    1010      73      76    0.00     524     516    
THU 12Z 28-NOV  -7.5   -15.4    1017      72       3    0.00     530     516
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harrisale

harrisale

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With that QPF I would only expect about 5-8cm but I'll take it

 

Honestly I doubt there will be much more snowfall than that. GEM continues to be the most aggressive model but really not seeing much support for the 10-15cm it's pumping out.

 

Using 10:1 snow ratios it would equate to 8-12cm actually, give or take. The amounts maybe slightly more closer to the lake where you reside as oppose to northern regions of the GTA.

 

Temps don't really drop below zero all that much so I would use a slightly lower ratio, maybe 8:1. 

 

2-3" would be my call at this point.

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Snowstorms

Snowstorms

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Honestly I doubt there will be much more snowfall than that. GEM continues to be the most aggressive model but really not seeing much support for the 10-15cm it's pumping out.

Temps don't really drop all that much so I would use a slightly lower ratio, maybe 8:1.

2-3" would be my call at this point.

Yeah my inital call is around 4-8cm. For November thats good. Areas near the lake may see around 7-9cm. Yeah it would seem temperatures are near the freezing point, but we may see some mid level cooling given the cold 850mb temps nearby so 8:1 and 10:1 would be reasonable to use.

We have seen sudden changes during the OBS part before, like the groundhog blizzard of 2011, so dont make conclusions just yet..

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