Jump to content
  • entries
    217
  • comments
    28
  • views
    113,386

About this blog

A few massive snowstorms have gained the respectability that every storm wants to gain.  The last few blizzards to strike the SNE region have not lived up to their predecessors.  The Blizzard of 2005 and 2015 are two storms that come to mind that blow everyone away when it comes to wind gusts and snowfall amounts in Harwich, MA.  When it comes to intensity of snowfall the Blizzard of 2005 is second to none, while the duration of the storm the blizzard of 2015 wins out.  Also wind gusts 2005 wins out over 2015 as Nantucket lost power as an 86mph wind gust hit the island, while Nantucket didn't lose power to the island in the 2015 storm where a 78mph gust ended up hitting the island.  As for snowfall amounts as I said earlier, the Blizzard of 2005 beat out the Blizzard of 2015 by two inches, 35" to 33" respectively. 

Entries in this blog

12z EURO December 5th forecast analysis H5 pattern

These five images are the four most reliable guidance models we have in determining a snowstorm its track, intensity and future impacts to New England.  What they all agree on is the overall setup and teleconnections featured on December 5th, 2018 their forecast in the next 7 days.  The models show a classic El Nino pattern, with a sub-tropical jet cutoff low approaching or over the Baja, CA region, with a large +PNA ridging into Alaska and the NW Canada Territories.  The GFS is the furthest nor
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

Who Wants to Cowrite a movie script

Anyone want to cowrite a movie script with me, I am open to most replies.  Tomorrow I am working on character names and design.  Help me out, just email at [email protected] or instant message me at USCAPEWEATHERAF on this site, thanks looking for the first few replies.  So be the first one to reply.   James Warren Nichols Productions
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

January 17th/18th Major Storm Threat

12z models trending towards a major coastal redeveloping nor'easter come next Tuesday into Wednesday.  NWS Taunton WFO has a 50% of snow in the forecast for Tuesday and 40% chance of snow for Wednesday, depending upon whether or not the trough closes off at H5 into a low will determine the duration of this winter storm, could be anywhere between 18-36 hours of snow
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

My next update

My next weather update will come tomorrow morning after I see the 6z model cycle for my first snow fall map for tomorrow night's event
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

Arctic shortwave could produce its own snow for Cape Cod next Thursday

Next Thursday, the 6z GFS has a large arctic shortwave that moves southeastward from James Bay, Canada with extremely cold air mass associated with it and a high north of the region and a storm southeast of the region putting the area in an inverted trough, with northeasterly winds enhancing snowfall from Plymouth, MA to Chatham, MA with up to .5" of QPF in spots.  I will wait until the short range models are in range, these systems are quite fickle in location and small in stature leading to cl
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

Christmas Eve Clipper? Could it be a bigger storm?

GFS and EURO, as well as the new experimental GFS, show the potential for a clipper on Christmas Eve of next week Monday.  Six days until this event, which is not a lot of time to discuss the potential.  However, models are not squishing the energy anymore and therefore not shredding the disturbance as it goes through the flow over the eastern US.  Time will tell if this event becomes more substantial, but there is potential.
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

Short Range Guidance edging northward with Precipitation shield tomorrow for Cape and Islands

Could Cape Cod see their first accumulating snows of the season tomorrow afternoon into Monday?  I think so, latest guidance is edging towards an impact with some snow, the question is how much precipitation does fall over the area?  WV suggests that the northern confluence zone and northern stream energy causing the southward movement of the precipitation is actually moving out of Quebec, Canada at a quicker fashion, is it enough to allow the southern stream disturbance to intensify and push pr
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

December 13-14th Clipper Snowfall Map and Discussion

Thursday morning could bring our first snow fall accumulation of the season for Cape Cod and the Islands, a shortwave rounding the base of the H5 trough this evening will bring a shot of arctic air to the region where highs tomorrow and the rest of the work week will remain below freezing.  We now have a very potent vorticity max disturbance in the northern jet stream flow that will amplify some as it rounds the base of the somewhat negatively tilted trough over the Northeastern US.  Snow will b
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

Dawn Awakening: End of the World

I could use the presence of an experienced writer who loves to write and work on a story that will blow the top off the competition.  Every movie studio will want this script someday, if we work hard on it together.  Speak up, I need you to help out.  You need to want to write with me.
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

Pattern Changing Storm comes through November 7-8th

A massive Great Lakes storm system will impact the US sometime in the next 7-8 days from now maybe sooner and will switch the pattern to an EC trough and WC ridge pattern favoring cold and stormy conditions for the Eastern CONUS in the mid to late month time frame.  A massive snowstorm is a potential noise maker come November 12-18th period.  The signal is increasing for a formidable Clipper approaching the EC to come after 10 days.  EURO, GFS both have this system.  Cold temps look to stay prev
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

First SNE snowfall, in 10-11 days? - November 12th?

While it seems impossible to ignore, the models are clearing showing signs of winter arriving earlier than the past several winters of New England.  Snow could fall as early as next week across the lower Southern Plains of OK, KS, and TX and then move into New England as the southern stream becomes active and perhaps develop with the arctic stream to phase and develop a significant nor'easter with cold temperatures over the region.  Would like to see more and better model support over the next t
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

**Winter Storm Alert** Two Storm threats increasing, Friday and again on Monday

Snow threats along with a wind threat exists on Monday while a snow threat exists on Friday.  Increasing model support for a 3-6/4-8" event like the one on Tuesday for Friday and a bigger event 6-12"+ on Monday into Tuesday of next week Monday.  Stay tuned to the forecasts as they will be increasingly likely for a significant event on Monday and a solid event on Friday.  Trough in the east and ridge in the west pattern will continue throughout February
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

Pattern will yield a multi-hazard storm system for end of October

Anomalous +PNA ridge blocking regime seems fit for the end of the month weeks into early November, this pattern should yield a powerful storm with orgins in the Arctic Realm.  The questions arise on the arrival of the arctic jet, how close does it phase into the southern trough in the El Nino regime developing over the Pacific Ocean, equator seems fascinating with SSTs pattern and aloft in the atmosphere.  Will share more later tomorrow.
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

A 24-hour Ocean Effect Snow chance

Snow flurries or snow showers have a 20% chance of occurring over HYA eastward on the Cape.  Winds are currently northwesterly but will become northerly later today into tomorrow night as an ocean storm changes the wind field.
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

Since Pattern has changed, thoughts on first snowfall?

Since the pattern has changed and we are now in an active northern stream regime, cold air will be getting worse and worse, deeper and deeper in nature as each trough takes aim at the New England region, where eventually we will see our first snow in SNE around the first week in November as cold air becomes sustained, Mount Washington, New Hampshire already saw their first snow of the year.  +PNA/-NAO pattern has begun and could sustain itself for quite awhile into January or beyond.  Still a lo
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

**00z Model update**

00z models show some moving southeastward with the snow threat this weekend and the GFS and CMC bring a coastal nor'easter threat and clipper threat to the Northeast next week, I will have an update after I wake up in the morning and then again after the 12z runs.
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

Potential is increasing for a decent to substantial Ocean Effect snow event

Eastern Cape Cod, east of Hyannis, MA will receive the bulk of the snow threat.  Several inches is likely.  850mb temp to the surface of the ocean differential (Delta Ts) are around +30 to +32C, and this will provide the kind of instability that will lead to thundersnows.  This is what the Tug Hill Plateau sees and so does Buffalo with SW winds.  However, the Cape does well with NNW and N winds at the surface, if we get any convergence we will see a singular band producing 2-4"/hour snowfall rat
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

First real shot at Ocean Effect Snow this season? Snows from Provincetown to Plymouth, MA

Below is the forecasted sounding from the 18z GFS for 111 hours out, which is around Wednesday afternoon.  This event for Ocean Effect Snows and inverted trough mix could be quite prolific, like the Lake Erie and Lake Ontario events, why, according to the model, we have a lot of moisture present, NNE winds present from 850mb to surface, 850mb temps dropping below -16C, SSTs around +8-9C, leading to 850mb to surface differentials around +25C leading to high instability, inversion heights near 700
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0
×
×
  • Create New...