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SnowGoose69

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KFRG
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    New York, NY

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  1. SnowGoose69
    Even now why is the GEFS so much more troffy out west near 3/20 vs the GEPS/EPS? Even with the two ensembles close to the same on MJO amplitude in 7? Would see again GEFS just more thinks the PAC jet is gonna blast the PAC NW blocking ridge that forms away while the other 2 suites do not see it being as easy to knock it down
  2. SnowGoose69
    Models always try to rush pattern flips...depending upon what the SSW does though we might find that things change faster than expected. Would not be exactly blown away if the 3/10-3/15 period ends up colder or much different looking at H5 than what ensembles will show over the next 5 days when its falling in the 11-15 span.
  3. SnowGoose69
    There was a pretty strong push from the mid 90s to the mid 2000s to hire mostly degreed meteorologists on TV but in the last 10-15 years that has really vanished again. Many of the people on TWC for example are not meteorologists now...at least the more recent hires anyway. Part of the problem is the Mississippi degree is becoming a huge thing now. I have been hearing even operational meteorology jobs they're seeing like 30% of the applicants with that degree. NWS requirements still force you to have courses though which won't qualify you with that degree
  4. SnowGoose69
    Some similarities to 00-01 though December 03 was not nearly as cold but the winter decided to just take a long break for most of February into early March before it came back again. February 04 remains the only case for NYC where at least 6 inches of snow did not fall when Dec/Jan both had 10 inches or more.
  5. SnowGoose69
    Ensembles have tended to be too strong with any SE ridging most of the winter...the area they've missed has been the PNA ridge which has tended to verify way flatter than shown in the longer range but the tendency to want to show ridging maximized outside of SE Canada or New England has failed on numerous occasions which is why despite being above normal for the winter, places from MS across to GA and into FL have been frigid relative to what they saw in Jan/Feb 2023....I have seen ATL has had only 1 high of 70 or higher the entire winter so far which explains why on web cameras I see the pear trees hae not even bloomed yet where last year as well as 18/19 and even 22 they were basically leafed out by now.
  6. SnowGoose69
    89-90/96-97/01-02/11-12/12-13 were all relatively bad. I am not sure a neutral after a Nina would be bad but they do tend to be and often times they suck for a large section of the country...01-02, 11-12, 12-13 were pretty much bad in large sectors of the nation.
  7. SnowGoose69
    I always wondered how they measured back before 93. I assume they labeled the measurements at CPK but they must have been getting done outside the NWS office at Rockefeller Plaza at the time
  8. SnowGoose69
    I thought it 03-04 JFK beat them
  9. SnowGoose69
    The airport and downtown has been shafted in every event somehow it seems
  10. SnowGoose69
    This is the one event I think they clearly under measured. I could definitely make an argument for what they got in the previous event as EWR/LGA were close
  11. SnowGoose69
    It still appears it won't last long...already ensembles beginning to flip things more +PNA or zonal at the end of their runs minus the GEFS which has been really lousy all winter anyway, we cannot sustain any pattern more than 10-14 days it seems and once again we probably won't here. We'll see if maybe after 3/25 we can flip things consistently mild but I do think we will have a lousy cold dreary stretch mid March.
  12. SnowGoose69
    FWIW the GEPS had a much less hostile pattern at the end than the GEFS/EPS did so we'll see if something could still happen in mid March perhaps....I would still expect even if we have a hostile pattern 2/27 to 3/10 it could flip again
  13. SnowGoose69
    Yeah based on EWR and LGA its fairly likely they are like 0.5 too low on this event at least
  14. SnowGoose69
    Staten Island might be upgraded to a winter storm warning shortly
  15. SnowGoose69
    It sure does look right now relative to 12-18Z models today that the heaviest snows may end up north of that
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