coastalplainsnowman

In early December there was much fretting about how we were destined to a pattern of cold and dry. Lo and behold, a 6"+ snowstorm for everyone arrives on the 13th. Then, just as the final flakes were falling from that storm, one could not get through 3 replies without reading about the inevitable torch headed our way and how it was unlikely to snow again this millennium. Instead the last two weeks of December had one day in the 50s, sure, but multiple days with highs in the 30s, multiple sub-freezing highs, and a 4-8" snowstorm. Then it couldn't stop flurrying every night for 3-4 nights straight. No one knows with any certainty whether or it's going to snow or not 10-14 days out and especially beyond. When there's cold air forecast to be around for awhile, things have a way of happening. I'm taking it a couple of days at a time, and I won't at all be surprised if we see measurable snow in that timeframe. And that's based on nothing but being around for awhile and having seen this movie before. That and having stayed at a Holiday Inn last night.

What are your thoughts on the predictive capabilities of groundhogs?

Do you pity the fool who believes anything over two days out?

IYKYK

I remember being out in Stony Brook a few days after this storm. While I thought I got crushed at home, when I got out there it was like 150% of what I'd gotten, just crazy. And that was a day or two afterwards. Some crazy gradients, right?

Guys I just found this, which you may already be aware of. Is the score actually calculated as shown below? If so, it looks like it is calculated based strictly on the depth of the snow, the area of the land it covers, and the population inhabiting said land, and without regard to whether the location is within the 'northeast.' Edit: It does look like this is how the score is calculated. ChatGPT does a great job explaining this with examples. It mentions that it calibrates to account for population growth as well.

I am really surprised that there wasn't more discussion on the Blizzard of '96 here today! 30 years ago, so maybe it's just that a lot of posters on here are too young to remember it. Check out the NESIS score on this bad boy: 11.78. While there were quite a few big storms between 2000-2018 which were similar enough to it around here, it stands out for me if for no other reason that it was the first foot+ storm for most of us in the city on south / east since the Blizzard of '83 nearly 13 years prior (1993 "Storm of the Century" was ruined by sleet for us.) For many of us who barely remember 1978, there was 1978 and 1983, and that was it, til 1996. I think the last foot+ around here was what, 2018? Imagine if we didn't have another one til 2031 what this place would be like when it happens. Seeing >20" snow - and the things that it covered, like Christmas decorations that neighbors had ill-advisedly not taken down -- "the soldiers are covered!!" was unreal. Stuff like that is why I'm here. Ok that's all I got.

30 years ago tonight, something really big was on our doorstep, I just can't quite remember what it was.

Thanks. I should clarify. I had an outdoor home thermometer I was watching closely that morning, and it briefly hit -1. KFRG had the low at 1, but I remember others nearby on here reporting subzero. I do see that Feb 2016 had a zero day too per KFRG, but that's the closest I see that they got since 2014. I know I'm mixing apples and oranges here. Also, I'm getting my history via the Almanac section of weather underground for KFRG, clicking through month by month. So this is messy for sure. To your point, elsewhere on the island in the past 12 years I'm sure you're right that other stations have gone below zero.

On this date 12 years ago, some places on LI went subzero. Was that the last time in these parts (excluding Westhampton Beach)?

Since we're down to just the piles here, I was able to take them down this morning, but frozen while doing so. Relatedly, for me, a foot of snow total, plus cold, in the lead up to and during the holidays, as we had this year, beats all the snow we can muster from March 1st on. When I run for president it will be on a platform of lots of snow and cold, but only during meteorological winter.

Another morning, another light coating - very light this time - underway here. Looking at the radar, further east of me in Central Suffolk looks to be under better echoes than I am, but not seeing ISP reporting anything.

February 1996 the last week of the month hovered in the upper 50s to lower 60s for the better part of a week, averaging 56.5 degree highs. 6 weeks later we had a 4-12 inch snowstorm. There's too much variability around here to take much to the bank more than two weeks out, ever.

Same. Did better this morning than yesterday. Edit: On further review, did better yesterday. I'll call it 1/4" tops here. Still whitened everything up a bit tho. Calm enough out this morning too. Another beautiful morning.