October Comes Early: Late September Multi-Hazard Hybrid Storm

[Prismshine Productions]

Imagine if it was winter

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[vortex95]

13 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah I’m not sure there’s a lot of trust in forecasts generally, but the storm being the lead story for a few days isn’t necessarily hype in my book. Now, if you’re not adjusting your forecast as you’re certainly heading toward a bust, that’s a whole different issue and problematic. 

Other than the clowns online using 925mb wind images and calling this tropical, I didn’t see a lot of hype, but we probably have different definitions of what hype is. Showing a legitimate rain and wind forecast map and saying we don’t usually get these in September doesn’t rise to the level for me. 

One issue is the all storms have the same cookie-cutter hype formula in the eyes of TV stations.  Sure, not all OCMs follow that or want to do that, but many are forced to.

If one wanted to scale things properly and have something unique to say, they should have said, "such a storm fcst is quite unusual for September", but that takes more than generic knowledge of wx, one needs to know local wx history as well.  This is of value b/c it puts things in proper context and perspective, which sadly is sorely lacking these days in media.

Not all Nor'easters are alike, but they are treated as such for max hype and ratings.

Heaven help us when the next HU takes aim at New England.   Mark my words, they will make ZERO difference between the 1938 HU and a MEH HU like Belle in 1976.  "Look, the track is *similar* the 1938 HU!"  O-kay, but all big HU hits in New England have similar tracks!  That doesn't say anything really to the public as to total sensible wx impact  It's like after Sandy, every E Coast TC threat was "track similar to Sandy" which in that case was nonsense.  Sandy 's track was exceptional.   But never let a recent big event go unused for hype for "the next one!" 
 

[vortex95]

13 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I agree the majority of storms will have overs and unders but can't the forecasters adjust their forecasts based on what is actually taking place?

Well, at least so far we don't see the ultimate over/under maps like the NWS has started putting out for snow events.  0-6" or 1-14" for a single point fcst?  That is practically useless for most.  Yes, I know some want to see the full range possible but overall, it just causes more confusion and has ppl going ?????

Put out one specific fcst w/ reasonable prob snow ranges at a given time, and that's it!  Adjust as needed as new model data comes in (not every single weenie model every 3 hr or so!). Focused, coherent, consistent messages is important!  Don't make things any more complex than they need to be.

[vortex95]

11 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Winds are ripping... waves and splash over is awesome at high tide ill post pics when I get home later but this is awesome! 

Did you like the alkaline FOAM INVASION on the beach as the tide came in?  I hope you didn't stand in it like reporters sometimes do...gross!

[vortex95]

8 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

The gap between television and other sources such as mobiles apps and social media is closing, however, local television is still rated as the #1 source. Even if people are getting information from other sources, a large percentage still revert to their local network as a means to try and verify the validity. 

The way even basic TV services continue to increase in costs has become a major issue, and I have read that networks are pushing to be able to *charge* you for their station access, when it always has been free w/ antennas w/o cable.  Yes, that would conflict w/ FCC regulations I think but never understated the power of lobby.

The entire TV landscape is becoming a CF.  Streaming was supposed to be the panacea, but now it is more expensive than cable w/ regular price increases way ahead of inflation.  And for sports fans?  Trying to find *where* your local or fav team will be on, not just when, is becoming absurd.  Sometimes you do not even know the day before what streaming service/station a particular game will be on!  And just wait until the SB becomes PPV!

[vortex95]

8 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

sports is the same way. so many click bait articles when it comes to sports

I am only a casual sports fan, so verify this for me.  It has been said that its all about now the stupid drama OFF the field, like contracts, what this player said, a team potentially moving, etc, than the games themselves!

[vortex95]

8 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

look out, an incredibly dangerous storm is coming.  not good

The biggest storm to impact the region in "HALF A YEAR!"  LOL. Who says that in regular talk?  Saying "6 months" is not dramatic enough, use "year" to make it sound "longer."  You see how micromanaged wording is for max effect.

This is good news from the Southern Rockies to the Lower MS Valley b/c this sig rain is badly needed b/c of drought conditions.  You never hear about that, do you?

[vortex95]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Playing devils advocate, wouldn’t the current environment of hyping up weather events lead to increased “hits” in forecasting high-end wx events?

It is incredibly hard for an event to “sneak up” on society these days.  

Yes it would, but when you always go big or max, your fcst success rate for high-end wx event is 100%.  That requires zero met skills.  Anyone can say that and sound awesome!

But ppl do it anyway b/c they know most will only remember the really big events selectivity, which is normal, but they do not realize such a forecaster always goes big, and this puts them up on a pedestal immediately and you get a dedicated fan/follower for life b/c of *one* "successful fcst of a biggie!

Yes, "sneaky" wx events are becoming less common, but do not let your guard down,  Ask @CoastalWx about Dec 9, 2005 or that early March 2013 snowstorm.  And even though it would likely not happen in the NEUS, you still get HUs that unexpectedly go nuts those last 6-12 hr before landfall.  Look at Michael in Oct 2018 and Ian in Sep 2022.  And such unexpected RI w/ TCs happens at lot for far at sea. HU Nolo S of HI several days ago was fcst to peak at 105 kt.  Well, it actually peaked at 135 kt!  And Humberto in Sep 2007 near the TX coast in just 24 hr when from next to nothing as a disturbance to a 80 kt HU at landfall.  Unexpected tornado outbreaks, esp. on a more local, less synoptically-evident scale, still occur every year.

The "surprises" are more often w/ mesoscale-type phenomena these days (inner cores of TCs are mesoscale), but don't rule out weenie snowstorms/synoptic-scale events completely!  And interesting combo is mesoscale surprises occurring when a large-scale synoptic event is expected.  I can't recall the exact event (@CoastalWx will!) but there was an OES event in NE MA as a large-scale storm was approaching, and Topsfield got like 25" off fluff before any real synoptic snow moved in!