October Comes Early: Late September Multi-Hazard Hybrid Storm

[Prismshine Productions]

Imagine if it was winter

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[vortex95]

13 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah I’m not sure there’s a lot of trust in forecasts generally, but the storm being the lead story for a few days isn’t necessarily hype in my book. Now, if you’re not adjusting your forecast as you’re certainly heading toward a bust, that’s a whole different issue and problematic. 

Other than the clowns online using 925mb wind images and calling this tropical, I didn’t see a lot of hype, but we probably have different definitions of what hype is. Showing a legitimate rain and wind forecast map and saying we don’t usually get these in September doesn’t rise to the level for me. 

One issue is the all storms have the same cookie-cutter hype formula in the eyes of TV stations.  Sure, not all OCMs follow that or want to do that, but many are forced to.

If one wanted to scale things properly and have something unique to say, they should have said, "such a storm fcst is quite unusual for September", but that takes more than generic knowledge of wx, one needs to know local wx history as well.  This is of value b/c it puts things in proper context and perspective, which sadly is sorely lacking these days in media.

Not all Nor'easters are alike, but they are treated as such for max hype and ratings.

Heaven help us when the next HU takes aim at New England.   Mark my words, they will make ZERO difference between the 1938 HU and a MEH HU like Belle in 1976.  "Look, the track is *similar* the 1938 HU!"  O-kay, but all big HU hits in New England have similar tracks!  That doesn't say anything really to the public as to total sensible wx impact  It's like after Sandy, every E Coast TC threat was "track similar to Sandy" which in that case was nonsense.  Sandy 's track was exceptional.   But never let a recent big event go unused for hype for "the next one!" 
 

[vortex95]

13 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I agree the majority of storms will have overs and unders but can't the forecasters adjust their forecasts based on what is actually taking place?

Well, at least so far we don't see the ultimate over/under maps like the NWS has started putting out for snow events.  0-6" or 1-14" for a single point fcst?  That is practically useless for most.  Yes, I know some want to see the full range possible but overall, it just causes more confusion and has ppl going ?????

Put out one specific fcst w/ reasonable prob snow ranges at a given time, and that's it!  Adjust as needed as new model data comes in (not every single weenie model every 3 hr or so!). Focused, coherent, consistent messages is important!  Don't make things any more complex than they need to be.

[vortex95]

11 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Winds are ripping... waves and splash over is awesome at high tide ill post pics when I get home later but this is awesome! 

Did you like the alkaline FOAM INVASION on the beach as the tide came in?  I hope you didn't stand in it like reporters sometimes do...gross!