Invest 96L — 40% 2 day and 60% seven day odds of development

[tiger_deF]

After a parade of struggling invests which have failed to materialize, it looks like the Atlantic, in this anemic season, may actually be capable of producing a potentially long-tracking hurricane!
96L is not currently a threat to land, and the vast majority of models show this system recurving out to well east of the CONUS

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET: doesn’t quite get it to Dolly strength but still has it as a TD although this run then weakens it while moving rapidly WNW in the MDR followed by a reformation 2 days later moving W much more slowly toward the SE Bahamas:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 12.4N 33.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.08.2026 48 12.4N 33.9W 1010 28
1200UTC 27.08.2026 60 13.0N 37.8W 1009 30
0000UTC 28.08.2026 72 13.2N 42.0W 1009 31
1200UTC 28.08.2026 84 14.1N 46.7W 1010 32
0000UTC 29.08.2026 96 CEASED TRACKING


NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 20.3N 67.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 31.08.2026 156 21.0N 68.4W 1010 34
0000UTC 01.09.2026 168 20.9N 70.6W 1009 32

[WxWatcher007]

70% now