Invest 92L--60% two day, 60% five day odds

[WxWatcher007]

Again, asleep at the wheel. Here's a thread for Invest 92L, which seems poised to become a TD soon in the central Atlantic. Discuss here. 

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave 
is located about 900 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde 
Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for 
development during the next couple of days, and a tropical 
depression will likely form while the system moves westward to 
west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[WxWatcher007]

Models are pretty lukewarm for this invest, but AI ensembles, especially the Euro AI, track it into the Caribbean. Shear is an issue across the basin, where it's been historically high in the last month. 

[tiger_deF]

If we get any hurricanes out of the Pineapple Express of waves coming off of Africa, potential Dolly will likely end up being a sacrificial lamb to allow them to flourish

[WxWatcher007]

Pretty good chance we get TC genesis here. Gradual organization continuing. 

[WxWatcher007]

Hmm…down to 60% odds 

[GaWx]

16 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Hmm…down to 60% odds 

Down to 20% now:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
A tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the Windward Islands 
is producing gusty winds and a large area of showers and 
thunderstorms. This system is moving into a region of increasing 
upper-level winds and dry air, and the potential of development 
continues to decrease. Even though development is unlikely, gusty 
winds and areas of heavy rain are possible across portions of the 
Lesser Antilles tonight and on Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.