Winter 2026-2027 Speculation

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Wierd.. why would the NAO be negative all of a sudden? It hasn't been negative in 14 years, and this is the ripe +year time after Solar Max and strong +QBO.. not saying it's impossible but I think they are displacing the El Nino N. American ridge.

All of the seasonals are doing it...UK, JMA and CANSIPS, too....I take it as obviously overdone, but support for some second half volatility.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

53 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

All of the seasonal are going it...UK, JMA and CANSIPS, too....I take it as obviously overdone, but support for some second half volatility.

Maybe we can do a Jan 2024-like -NAO

I do think there will be mean H5 ridging 60-90N this Winter. I'd give the odds of that happening at like 90%. May-Sept SLP 60-90N reverse for the Winter every time since 2012.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Maybe we can do a Jan 2024-like -NAO

I do think there will be mean H5 ridging 60-90N this Winter. I'd give the odds of that happening at like 90%. May-Sept SLP 60-90N reverse for the Winter every time since 2012.

Like you said, forget -NAO in the seasonal mean like guidance tries to do...no argument there....but I do think it lends support to the notion of some second half interludes of -NAO.