2026-2027 Super El Nino

[BlizzardWx]

16 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Just letting you guys know, this was a >+1 PDO. The new thought in the weather community is that global warming is skewing PDO negative, etc, the warm pool near Japan isn't going away. While SSTAs are warmer, the PDO is a 50/50 index, and the big warmth along the west coast of North America was responsible for strong +PDO in 15-16. 

This is a good point because it may well be pretty similar to what we end up doing in the N Pac this winter, with warm water east of Japan AND along the west coast. 

13 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It's pretty easy not to have a bias. Accept that there is a 85% chance that the Winter will be above average wherever you are, but I think the Strong El Nino historical analog set is biased warm compared to that, with probably too much +AO/NAO. 

Yeah its a problem when we only want to use recent years as analogs yet all of those years are biased towards -PDO and +AMO. That won't work when we buck the trend.