2026-2027 El Nino

[snowman19]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We are currently on track for a very strong event potentially recording an ONI of +2.0 or greater like we recently experienced in 23-24 based on current OHC and WWB intensity unless it’s interrupted by EWBs next few months.

The biggest factor will be getting the WWBs to continue through June in order for the subsurface El Niño signal to become fully established at the surface.

We can remember the strong EWB in June 2014 which halted the El Niño development when the models had been forecasting +2.0 for 2014-2015. It’s funny how we eventually got the super El Niño a year later. So it was delayed but not denied. 

That was the last time that the models forecast a +2.0 event that didn’t verify. So unless this process gets derailed by EWBs next few months, there won’t be anything to slow the development going forward.

We will need about 3 more months of observations to know if this one can reach its top potential. 
 

https://news.yale.edu/2016/02/08/new-insights-stalled-el-ni-o-2014

 

Yea, the only El Niño in the last 45+ years even remotely comparable to this one is 1997-98. Even the 1982-83 and 2015-16 Nino’s weren’t this far advanced in March. If those twin TC’s verify next week, and that’s starting to look likely, IMO, this is a “high-end” strong El Niño at minimum with prospects for a super event going up a lot…..