1-30/2-1-26 Arctic Blast, ULL Snow Event

[nrgjeff]

Per OBS thread, KCHA lower elevations has another couple hours as the last lobe on radar comes through. Shows as multi-layer clouds on Satellite (below) just coming in, and following the overnight round now east. 

Signal Mountain and points north especially the Upper Plateau should have good snow showers all day, some moderate north, in the moist low-level flow beneath cold core aloft. 

Several hours of steady snow will continue farther east in the Winter Storm Warning areas. Then any upslope areas will have snow showers well into tonight with the upslope half of the event. Mountains will still go hard overnight and probably still have snow showers going Sunday morning. 

Cold upper-level low is just swinging into northwest Tennessee at this 12:30 UTC shot below. That'll keep things going 

[nrgjeff]

Seems like almost everyone overachieved last night. MRX just posted additional snowfall forecast and it's over in the OBS thread. I would think a little more than that for northeast Tenn?

Forecast wise.. Northeast Tennessee might only be around the 3rd quarter - far from winding down. See baroclinic leaf like feature. I was expecting just a lumbering cold core by morning. Instead, the system is still going.

Then NW flow and upslope areas might only be at halftime. This is gonna go most of tonight there. Then the true Mountains (Smokies and Southern Apps) should still have snow showers Sunday morning. 

Southeast Tennessee will probably wind down to snow showers and flurries by midday. Signal Mountain should keep going with quality snow showers most of the day. Points north (Flattop Mtn. Cumberland plateau) should do even better.

Daytime cloud physics. I prefer it over Vis to detect snow producing clouds.

[Knoxtron]

53 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Seems like almost everyone overachieved last night. MRX just posted additional snowfall forecast and it's over in the OBS thread. I would think a little more than that for northeast Tenn?

Forecast wise.. Northeast Tennessee might only be around the 3rd quarter - far from winding down. See baroclinic leaf like feature. I was expecting just a lumbering cold core by morning. Instead, the system is still going.

Then NW flow and upslope areas might only be at halftime. This is gonna go most of tonight there. Then the true Mountains (Smokies and Southern Apps) should still have snow showers Sunday morning. 

Southeast Tennessee will probably wind down to snow showers and flurries by midday. Signal Mountain should keep going with quality snow showers most of the day. Points north (Flattop Mtn. Cumberland plateau) should do even better.

Daytime cloud physics. I prefer it over Vis to detect snow producing clouds.

Yeah flatop has a good 3-5" currently, pouring tiny flakes with drifts everywhere. Roads are completely covered and impassable without chains 

Current 8 with a windchill of -10, super fun snow to sled in but dang that cold hurts haha

 

The amount of lake affect moisture caught up/swirling around in the rust belt headed our way is promising!