Texas 2026 Discussion/Observations

[DFWWeather]

 

6 minutes ago, aggiegeog said:

GFS showing sub 0 west of DFW on Monday and east of DFW on Tue. Could happen where a solid base of snow/sleet is laid down this weekend.

12z GFS showing 0 at KDFW and ICON showing -2 and Canadian at 1

[aggiegeog]

26 minutes ago, DFWWeather said:

 

12z GFS showing 0 at KDFW and ICON showing -2 and Canadian at 1

Sub 0F temps early next week cannot be discounted at this point. I do not expect to break the 2021 records but could approach some of them.

[aggiegeog]

I would place the Arctic boundary near a Canadian, TX to OKC to south of Tulsa line. I may be off on the eastern side of that as the DP change isn't as dramatic over there. Daytime will help define it better.

[DFWWeather]

Today's 0z data came in quite a bit warmer overall. Looking back at POR and reconstructed anecdotal data back to 1785, there has never been two subzero readings at DFW in a five year window. That would be unprecedented if we did. That is a 25 to 30 year outcome at best. So my expectation is that we stay at 5 or above at coldest point Monday for KDFW. Still respectable cold though, but still acknowledging a non-zero risk of falling below 5. Colder spots could get that cold. Despite many forecast, we are not going to get above freezing on Monday if we start that cold with significant snow/sleet, especially with a northerly wind component. So significant improvement may not be had until Tuesday afternoon and even then I think we will stay below 40, so risk of problems Wednesday morning from refreezing is likely if we get at least 3 inches of sleet. NAM is burying us in 5 to 6 inches of sleet, but I think it is missing the change over to snow on the back end.

[cstrunk]

Devastating ice storm potential for the general vicinity of the Arklatex and a bit south and east of there. Many models are showing fairly large areas of 1"+ of ice.

[aggiegeog]

I am going out an limb with my forecast but I think the major freezing rain will be pushed further SE. I am forecasting more sleet than anything for Tyler and NW. Could be a sharp line somewhere around Tyler/Longview area stretching SW to NE. That will be difference in who sees .1" ice and 4" sleet and who sees .7" ice and 1" sleet. Hopefully tonight into tomorrow morning stays pretty light so we can wait on colder mid levels before heavy precip arrives.

Could be thunderstorms involved in this frozen precip so some convective bands will drop very heavy sleet or freezing rain for periods of time.

 

[Stx_Thunder]

ETX icing threat is looking real now with an R.

I feel that an Ice Storm watch/warning is easily warranted now (rather than a Winter wx one in this region), as the incoming SS mid-level trough out west is trending more intense and diving abnormally further south into MX than I had suspected.

Even on NAM, the H5 trough axis taking on at least a neutral (N-S) tilt. Which will definitely strengthen the mostly south flow WAA regime over ETX ahead of it (possibly up to 60 knots), in the 850Mb - 700Mb layer. Which is most critical for precip type.

Even in STX, would not rule out at least a few elevated supercell storms with so much incoming dynamics aloft Saturday night (behind the surface front). But even in ETX, thunder ice/sleet is looking very likely now at least in a scattered storm variety.

[vwgrrc]

20 hours ago, aggiegeog said:

GFS showing sub 0 west of DFW on Monday and east of DFW on Tue. Could happen where a solid base of snow/sleet is laid down this weekend.

This 12z HRRR looks extremely concerning with heavy FZRA for most of the state. That gonna be a major disaster for power grid! But the good thing is 12 NAM seems not buying into that. Personally I feel NAM is normally more reliable for set up like this. Hope that holds true this time.

[Stx_Thunder]

12 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

This 12z HRRR looks extremely concerning with heavy FZRA for most of the state. That gonna be a major disaster for power grid! But the good thing is 12 NAM seems not buying into that. Personally I feel NAM is normally more reliable for set up like this. Hope that holds true this time.

0Z NAM was showing at least close to 1" icing in ETX. GFS was going all the way up to 2".

Even just 1 inch icing is more than enough to cause major impacts & power outages.

[Stx_Thunder]

2 hours ago, aggiegeog said:

I am going out an limb with my forecast but I think the major freezing rain will be pushed further SE. I am forecasting more sleet than anything for Tyler and NW. Could be a sharp line somewhere around Tyler/Longview area stretching SW to NE. That will be difference in who sees .1" ice and 4" sleet and who sees .7" ice and 1" sleet. Hopefully tonight into tomorrow morning stays pretty light so we can wait on colder mid levels before heavy precip arrives.

Could be thunderstorms involved in this frozen precip so some convective bands will drop very heavy sleet or freezing rain for periods of time.

 

Elevated wintry thunderstorms are looking pretty likely now in ETX (where it's most probable to occur), with lots of 850Mb - 700Mb WAA there. Euro is even showing unusually decent 850Mb instability from around Tyler area and south Saturday night. With lifted-index values down to -3. Definitely would not rule out a sig amount of CG lightning with those kind of instability values.

Quite unstable and abnormal with this Arctic airmass setup. This is looking to be similar to the post-frontal Arctic airmass convective event in the state back in March 2014. Where even though sfc temps were above freezing in the 30s, I still had some pretty strong storms in STX with substantial CG lightning activity that one night. Which I had never experienced before.

[aggiegeog]

20 minutes ago, Stx_Thunder said:

Elevated wintry thunderstorms are looking pretty likely now in ETX (where it's most probable to occur), with lots of 850Mb - 700Mb WAA there. Euro is even showing unusually decent 850Mb instability from around Tyler area and south Saturday night. With lifted-index values down to -3. Definitely would not rule out a sig amount of CG lightning with those kind of instability values.

Quite unstable and abnormal for this kind of Arctic airmass setup. This is looking to be similar to the post-frontal Arctic airmass convective event in the state back in March 2014. Where even though sfc temps were in the 30s, I still had some pretty strong storms in STX with substantial CG lightning activity that one night. Which I had never experienced before.

March 2014 featured very heavy sleet and lots of lightning where I was living in Lindale. Being in a metal bardo at the time the combo of heavy sleet and frequent thunder was wild. This area could see similar situation again but much longer lasting.

[canderson]

Y’all be safe. The Piney Woods pine trees won’t fair well with this one. 

[Stx_Thunder]

3 hours ago, cstrunk said:

Devastating ice storm potential for the general vicinity of the Arklatex and a bit south and east of there. Many models are showing fairly large areas of 1"+ of ice.

 

'Hope ETX people are prepped by early tomorrow!

Only thing I'm seeing now that could potentially interfere major icing or FZRA accumulation is the warm-rain processes from all the WAA occurring in the 850Mb - 700Mb layer Saturday night ahead of the SS trough.

But below 850Mb - sfc is looking cold enough by later in the night to prevent that for most of the region.

[aggiegeog]

The front is along a Sherman to Wichita Falls to Lubbock line. Temps now in mid teens across northern Panhandle. Freeze line bisects OK south of Tulsa to OKC to Lawton and is through the Panhandle and entering NW TX region.

[Doinko]

What’s the sleet/ice potential like for Austin? It seems like we avoid the worst of the effects overall but could still see some ice/sleet?

[vwgrrc]

4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

What’s the sleet/ice potential like for Austin? It seems like we avoid the worst of the effects overall but could still see some ice/sleet?

There will be some Freezing Rain looks like. light-moderate

[aggiegeog]

Ice storm warning now for East Texas along and south of I-20.
 

I still think I have a chance to get lucky and be more on the sleet side but its cutting it real close.

[Stx_Thunder]

1 hour ago, Doinko said:

What’s the sleet/ice potential like for Austin? It seems like we avoid the worst of the effects overall but could still see some ice/sleet?

Icing potential is definitely still there in Austin this weekend, and even San Antonio area at least to an extent.

I have family in Austin region and would definitely still tell them to be prepared nonetheless (even though the much more significant or damaging ice impacts are likely to remain in ETX).

NAM, alongside GFS models typically do best at least with ice/sleet accumulations in the state from what I've seen in the past. European (ECMWF) model isn't as reliable with accumulations in TX as it tends to stay too warm on surface temps.

[DFWWeather]

12z 3km NAM is burying KDFW in 5 to 6 inches of sleet.

[Stx_Thunder]

50 minutes ago, aggiegeog said:

Ice storm warning now for East Texas along and south of I-20.
 

I still think I have a chance to get lucky and be more on the sleet side but its cutting it real close.

Finally... NWS got smart in ETX.

I'm actually a bit surprised they went ahead and put out those IS warnings now. Since they initially just went with WS alerts.

[canderson]

57 minutes ago, aggiegeog said:

Ice storm warning now for East Texas along and south of I-20.
 

I still think I have a chance to get lucky and be more on the sleet side but its cutting it real close.

I tend to think you guys do get more sleet than zr. I’ll go on a limb and say .2-.3” zr and 3” sleet for Longview 

[cstrunk]

2 minutes ago, canderson said:

I tend to think you guys do get more sleet than zr. I’ll go on a limb and say .2-.3” zr and 3” sleet for Longview 

I hope you are right and Longview gets 0.25" or less freezing rain. The ISW calls for 0.5"-0.75" with up to 1" of ice, but as aggiegeog noted, we seem to be dancing along a fine line.

[canderson]

9 minutes ago, cstrunk said:

I hope you are right and Longview gets 0.25" or less freezing rain. The ISW calls for 0.5"-0.75" with up to 1" of ice, but as aggiegeog noted, we seem to be dancing along a fine line.

Ice storms in ET are awful. Don’t wish them on anyone. 

[Stx_Thunder]

39 minutes ago, cstrunk said:

I hope you are right and Longview gets 0.25" or less freezing rain. The ISW calls for 0.5"-0.75" with up to 1" of ice, but as aggiegeog noted, we seem to be dancing along a fine line.

'Would not necessarily underestimate FZRA accumulation potential, even up there.

Models have been honing in on a pretty powerful incoming SS trough out west into the state Saturday night. So the 850Mb - 700Mb southerly flow regime from S - ETX is quite likely to be significant.

Even the NAM 3km runs (which always does best with these incoming shallow Arctic airmass scenarios), has been consistent on showing the 850Mb front still hung up close to DFW until late Saturday night. Which makes lots of sense in this case.

[SnowMan]

HRRR back to upping overall freezing rain totals the last couple runs.  Hoping it continues as I would like some serious ice.

[vwgrrc]

21 minutes ago, SnowMan said:

HRRR back to upping overall freezing rain totals the last couple runs.  Hoping it continues as I would like some serious ice.

Yea I was watching that as well. But I don't see any other model being nearly as insane as HRRR. I tend to think it's an outlier. I would like to trust NAM a bit more in this set up.

Update: NAM actually trending a bit drier if any. Keeping the FZRA very light for DFW.

[aggiegeog]

11 minutes ago, Stx_Thunder said:

'Would not necessarily underestimate the FZRA accumulation potential, even up there.

Models have been honing in on a pretty powerful incoming SS trough out west into the state Saturday night. So the 850Mb - 700Mb southerly flow regime from S - ETX is quite likely to be significant.

Even the NAM 3km runs (which always does best with these incoming shallow Arctic airmass scenarios), has been consistent on showing the 850Mb front still hung up close to DFW until late Saturday night. Which makes lots of sense in this case.

850mb front on HRRR and NAM reach Tyler around midday tomorrow though 850mb freeze line does lingering over N TX until tomorrow night. Ahead of 850mb front 850mb temps are running >10C while immediately behind the front 850mb temps drop to under 5C. Under 5C 850mb with 925mb running below -5C is a sleet look. Western NE TX looks like freezing rain through around midday tomorrow then sleet dominant after that until 850mb freeze line moves in around daybreak Sunday switching anything that falls Sunday to snow. I do think western NE TX sees significant icing but not the major damaging ice that will be seen further south and east. I believe the worst icing will fall from Austin to Palestine to Longview and on into N LA. I do admit that it is a close call and a couple degrees either way can swing affects dramatically.

[SnowMan]

12 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

Yea I was watching that as well. But I don't see any other model being nearly as insane as HRRR. I tend to think it's an outlier. I would like to trust NAM a bit more in this set up.

Of course right as I say that, this run is warmer.  Sleet profile showing almost 3 inches just to northwest....

[Stx_Thunder]

23 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

Yea I was watching that as well. But I don't see any other model being nearly as insane as HRRR. I tend to think it's an outlier. I would like to trust NAM a bit more in this set up.

Same here, definitely. HRRR does tend to overdo things. Particularly when it's convective, as I've seen over the years.

But even NAM, which is typically very conservative with any kind of overrunning convective instability (especially in these polar/arctic air masses), has joined that party. It's even been showing some significant 850Mb instability (negative LIs) over ETX in more recent runs for Saturday night.

[aggiegeog]

1 minute ago, Stx_Thunder said:

Same here, definitely. HRRR does tend to overdo things. Particularly when it's convective, as I've seen over the years.

But even NAM, which is typically very conservative with any kind of overrunning convective instability (especially in these polar/arctic air masses), has joined that party. It's even been showing some significant 850Mb instability or LIs over ETX in more recent runs.

Deep E TX could really get hammered tomorrow night.