Texas 2026 Discussion/Observations

[DFWWeather]

 

6 minutes ago, aggiegeog said:

GFS showing sub 0 west of DFW on Monday and east of DFW on Tue. Could happen where a solid base of snow/sleet is laid down this weekend.

12z GFS showing 0 at KDFW and ICON showing -2 and Canadian at 1

[aggiegeog]

26 minutes ago, DFWWeather said:

 

12z GFS showing 0 at KDFW and ICON showing -2 and Canadian at 1

Sub 0F temps early next week cannot be discounted at this point. I do not expect to break the 2021 records but could approach some of them.

[aggiegeog]

I would place the Arctic boundary near a Canadian, TX to OKC to south of Tulsa line. I may be off on the eastern side of that as the DP change isn't as dramatic over there. Daytime will help define it better.

[DFWWeather]

Today's 0z data came in quite a bit warmer overall. Looking back at POR and reconstructed anecdotal data back to 1785, there has never been two subzero readings at DFW in a five year window. That would be unprecedented if we did. That is a 25 to 30 year outcome at best. So my expectation is that we stay at 5 or above at coldest point Monday for KDFW. Still respectable cold though, but still acknowledging a non-zero risk of falling below 5. Colder spots could get that cold. Despite many forecast, we are not going to get above freezing on Monday if we start that cold with significant snow/sleet, especially with a northerly wind component. So significant improvement may not be had until Tuesday afternoon and even then I think we will stay below 40, so risk of problems Wednesday morning from refreezing is likely if we get at least 3 inches of sleet. NAM is burying us in 5 to 6 inches of sleet, but I think it is missing the change over to snow on the back end.

[cstrunk]

Devastating ice storm potential for the general vicinity of the Arklatex and a bit south and east of there. Many models are showing fairly large areas of 1"+ of ice.