Texas 2026 Discussion/Observations

[Stx_Thunder]

A new year? A new TX thread.

-

Looking pretty warm with more widespread sig ridging influence across the central states (again), to start 2026.

Euro and ensemble already going up to 20 C on 850Mb temps ('plain & simple' way above normal this time of year) in some spots the next several days. Which that alone leaves me with almost 0 doubt, more sfc temp records are going to be broken across much of the state, once again.

Along with even dryline influence invading the state as well from the west (more indicative of an early springlike zonal flow pattern). Which will only add more daytime high record-breaking fuel potential to this second (virtually inevitable now) winter heat wave.

"Winter's over, ya'll!"  

[donsutherland1]

The temperature soared to 89F (31.7C) in San Antonio. That tied the all-time January record that was set on January 30, 1971.

[Stx_Thunder]

Several cities in the eastern half of state broke daytime high temp records today. Due to the dryline reaching all the way east into ETX. A deeper westerly downslope flow was found even in College Station and Tyler in the afternoon.

Aside from the tied all-time January temp maximums in both Austin and San Antonio, the biggest jump in maximum daytime high from previous record for today (January 2), was actually in Waco.

[Stx_Thunder]

Brownsville got into the 90s today, and broke the record of 91 F set back in 1982.

[Stx_Thunder]

Looks to be a big change in the ongoing winter season pattern this weekend/early next week. Considering all the recent abnormal December and especially Christmas week winter heat in 2025.

'Doesn't look like any extreme cold to worry about as ensembles are not gung ho at all on an Arctic airmass plunge into the state or even the surface High and its strength. Even though the AO is going deeper into a negative phase, the AAO (Antarctic Oscillation) remains in positive phase, also.

The MJO has reemerged into the favorable latter phases (6 - 8) and looks to remain there the next few weeks at least. So precip odds for the state should get better going forward, and could make some frozen precip over the eastern half of state a distinct possibility this weekend. The PNA should remain in a positive phase as well.

[DFWWeather]

On 1/18/2026 at 4:20 PM, DFWWeather said:

Things could get quite interesting after ~ Jan 24th. We have a predominately negative EPO, WPO, AO with positive PNA. Displaced polar vortex at 50 mb down to southern Hudson Bay. MJO->7->8->1->2. Severely cold in Alaska, NW Territories, and Siberia. Strong blocking looking to develop over the top and a strong ridge over Alaska. This could set the stage for a significant dump of Arctic air into the CONUS and given the position of the ridge, Texas. Models starting to catch on to this idea. Significant signal in the majority of ensemble members of the Canadian, GEFS, and ECMWF. H5 pattern on ICON strongly showing a signal about this time. Our warm winter may be about to be turned around (hottest on record up til now).

Here was my post from the other thread. For DFW, we are looking at a major winter storm this weekend with all models and their ensemble suites predicting a mind blowing 2 plus inches of QPF in solidly subfreezing air. If this verifies anywhere remotely close to that, the Metroplex will be totally shut down.  In addition, the threat for severe cold (10 or lower at DFW) has increased significantly with most models and their ensembles clustering around 10 to 15F on average. There is a ~1050 to 1055mb Arctic high parked in the Dakotas bleeding cold air into the northern half of the state.

[aggiegeog]

We are looking at a massive winter storm stretching from the Southern Plains to the East Coast. The front arrives during the day Friday turning rain to freezing rain and sleet through the day as it marches SE across the state. The freeze line may stall somewhere over SE TX until Sat night but away from the coast it could advance quicker than modeled. Along I-20 >2" QPF is modeled most falling in <25F temps. Question is depth of the cold air for precip types for the northern 1/3 of the state. With the surface high shifting more west and stronger on recent models we should expect the 850mb 0C line to shift south. I expect snowfall totals to max at near 2' north of I-20 with widespread heavy amounts along and north of I-20. As you move south of I-30 more sleet will mix in with freezing rain becoming the main type from the Hill Country through Deep East TX. Some freezing rain likely reaches the coast by Saturday night. This will be a long duration event with onset being Friday and not ending until Sunday morning. Following the precip we look to get a reinforcing shot of cold air dropping lows to near 0 north of I-20 early next week. I am gonna watch for possible smaller systems to work in next week but nothing clear on that front yet. This is very similar to the first phase of 2021 but thankfully at this time it does not look to have that kind of staying power.

[DFWWeather]

Good analogs to this event synoptically are Feb 2003 and December 2013 with this event producing potentially more QPF and a much colder and denser Arctic airmass entrenched. The H5 pattern is one of the 4 classic setups that gives North Texas significant snow/ice. This will likely be a sleet maker initially with snow on top, and I wouldn't even rule out some freezing rain accretion at start. I do expect the change over to be quicker timing than currently advertised by FWD, probably more late morning early afternoon on Friday. We'll know a lot more when in range of the NAM. Too early to try and call accumulations right now with precip type and phase changes unknown at this range.

[aggiegeog]

End of NAM has NTX already covered in sleet by noon Friday.

[aggiegeog]

Today's models are trending towards a slower ejection of the Baja trough. This is looking like a Friday through Sunday storm for much of the state. Maybe not as intense of precip rates but looking at potentially 48 hours of frozen precip.

[vwgrrc]

Good analogs to this event synoptically are Feb 2003 and December 2013 with this event producing potentially more QPF and a much colder and denser Arctic airmass entrenched. The H5 pattern is one of the 4 classic setups that gives North Texas significant snow/ice. This will likely be a sleet maker initially with snow on top, and I wouldn't even rule out some freezing rain accretion at start. I do expect the change over to be quicker timing than currently advertised by FWD, probably more late morning early afternoon on Friday. We'll know a lot more when in range of the NAM. Too early to try and call accumulations right now with precip type and phase changes unknown at this range.

Don't really think this gonna be Dec. 13 at least for DFW. That was almost all ice.

Sent from my SM-S937U1 using Tapatalk

[aggiegeog]

7 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

Don't really think this gonna be Dec. 13 at least for DFW. That was almost all ice.

Sent from my SM-S937U1 using Tapatalk
 

That was mostly sleet and there is a chance this could be mostly sleet though I do think for DFW this is looking like a bit of freezing rain Friday shifting towards sleet by late Friday. By Saturday afternoon and into Sunday DFW should be mostly snow.

[aggiegeog]

Norman is the first office to issue watches for this, many more to come.

[aggiegeog]

Followed by Tulsa and SHV. 

[DFWWeather]

FWD has also place its entire FA under a Winter Storm Watch.

The chance of temperatures getting to 5 or colder with this event, even in the heart of the Metroplex has increased markedly. The majority of all ensemble members show temps now in the single digits as do the operational models. NBM now is down to 10°F. I fully expect Extreme Cold Warnings to go up with this.

[vwgrrc]

Nam is hinting a dry slot. This is a notorious busting factor for DFW winter events. Not again!

Sent from my SM-S937U1 using Tapatalk

[DFWWeather]

36 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

Nam is hinting a dry slot. This is a notorious busting factor for DFW winter events. Not again!


 

Not exactly...Just to clarify the terminology a bit...when meteorologists talk about a ‘dry slot,’ they’re referring to the dry conveyor belt wrapping into a mature cyclone. It’s a broad synoptic feature that shows up in global mass fields and satellite water‑vapor imagery. It’s not something the NAM typically resolves well at the end of its run, and the model actually has close to an inch of QPF down by midnight Fri/Sat, which suggests a fully intact precip shield rather than a dry slot intrusion.

About the analogs I posted earlier:
When I mentioned Feb 2003 and Dec 2013, I was referring to the H5 pattern and overall pattern structure, not the exact surface impacts. Those events share several large‑scale similarities with this setup: 1) A deep, well‑established Arctic air mass 2) A southern‑stream disturbance ejecting from the Southwest 3)Strong overrunning and isentropic lift 4) A marginal warm layer aloft that cools with time 5) A broad, long‑duration precipitation shield

Dec 2013 did produce some icing, but the event was actually sleet‑dominant because the warm nose was shallow and weak. That’s why it’s a useful analog here — the thermodynamic structure favored sleet, and this system is showing a similar profile so far. So the comparison isn’t about matching the exact precipitation type outcome — it’s about the larger‑scale pattern and storm mechanics. From that perspective, the analogs line up pretty well.

[Snowstorms]

2 hours ago, DFWWeather said:

Not exactly...Just to clarify the terminology a bit...when meteorologists talk about a ‘dry slot,’ they’re referring to the dry conveyor belt wrapping into a mature cyclone. It’s a broad synoptic feature that shows up in global mass fields and satellite water‑vapor imagery. It’s not something the NAM typically resolves well at the end of its run, and the model actually has close to an inch of QPF down by midnight Fri/Sat, which suggests a fully intact precip shield rather than a dry slot intrusion.

About the analogs I posted earlier:
When I mentioned Feb 2003 and Dec 2013, I was referring to the H5 pattern and overall pattern structure, not the exact surface impacts. Those events share several large‑scale similarities with this setup: 1) A deep, well‑established Arctic air mass 2) A southern‑stream disturbance ejecting from the Southwest 3)Strong overrunning and isentropic lift 4) A marginal warm layer aloft that cools with time 5) A broad, long‑duration precipitation shield

Dec 2013 did produce some icing, but the event was actually sleet‑dominant because the warm nose was shallow and weak. That’s why it’s a useful analog here — the thermodynamic structure favored sleet, and this system is showing a similar profile so far. So the comparison isn’t about matching the exact precipitation type outcome — it’s about the larger‑scale pattern and storm mechanics. From that perspective, the analogs line up pretty well.

On another note, their is a strong subtropical jet influence with this system which would limit any dry slot development due to an over saturated atmosphere. Any issue we have with precip development will likely occur early on as the system begins to form. 

This is looking more like a major sleet/ice pellet storm for us with maybe a few inches of snow on Saturday as upper air temperatures cool down. 

This is my first winter storm down here in Texas so I'm excited, followed by a nice cold shot Sat-Monday. I could see temps dropping down to 3-5.