Winter 2025-2026 Thoughts

[donsutherland1]

A classic La Niña winter appears to be on the way. There will likely be some interesting developments, along the way, particularly if a sudden stratospheric warming event materializes in late November or early December. Then, the potential would exist for a cold end to December and possibly first half of January, if the polar vortex is displaced. 

Based on ENSO and the teleconnections, there is a signal for the coldest month relative to normal to be January in the Gulf Coast and Southeast. Perhaps the Arctic outbreak of November 10-11 that saw the coldest anomalies affect the Southeast offers a hint of how things might unfold in January.

The C3S multi-model system appears to be quite aggressive with above normal temperatures. Last winter, there were some indications that it was too aggressive with the warmth, but I deferred to the guidance. That proved to be a bad mistake leading to an overly warm idea.

This time, I am giving more weight to the analog cases for insight. The ECMWF seasonal forecast appears to be a better fit with the final cases I selected based on ENSO and the teleconnections.  My selected comparison cases for Winter 2025-2026 are Winters 2016-2017, 2017-2018, 2021-2022, and 2024-2025. 

C3S Seasonal Forecasts:

ECMWF:

Analog Cases:

ECMWF: December-February 500 mb Progression:

Analog Cases: December-February 500 mb Progression:

Select Snowfall Estimates:
Albany: 45"-60"
Baltimore: 10"-15"
Binghamton: 80"-90"
Boston: 35"-45"
Buffalo: 85"-95"
Burlington: 75"-85"
Caribou: 110"-125"
Chicago: 30"-40"
Detroit: 40"-50"
New York City: 15"-25"
Newark: 15"-25"
Philadelphia: 10"-20"
St. Louis: 10"-15"
Toronto: 100 cm - 125 cm
Washington, DC: 8"-12"

 

[Roger Smith]

I don't foresee anything very different from the above, would just add that there may be potential for some heavy lake effect snowfall events and large temperature variations in the Midwest that could include a few episodes of near-record cold there. This makes me wonder if the snowfall anomaly will be highly positive in the upper Midwest trailing southwest and with a secondary maximum over the central Rockies. I think the east coast will be lucky to see one major coastal storm but could have a half dozen moderate snowfall events from redeveloping lows. 

[MJO812]

On 11/11/2025 at 10:31 PM, donsutherland1 said:

A classic La Niña winter appears to be on the way. There will likely be some interesting developments, along the way, particularly if a sudden stratospheric warming event materializes in late November or early December. Then, the potential would exist for a cold end to December and possibly first half of January, if the polar vortex is displaced. 

Based on ENSO and the teleconnections, there is a signal for the coldest month relative to normal to be January in the Gulf Coast and Southeast. Perhaps the Arctic outbreak of November 10-11 that saw the coldest anomalies affect the Southeast offers a hint of how things might unfold in January.

The C3S multi-model system appears to be quite aggressive with above normal temperatures. Last winter, there were some indications that it was too aggressive with the warmth, but I deferred to the guidance. That proved to be a bad mistake leading to an overly warm idea.

This time, I am giving more weight to the analog cases for insight. The ECMWF seasonal forecast appears to be a better fit with the final cases I selected based on ENSO and the teleconnections.  My selected comparison cases for Winter 2025-2026 are Winters 2016-2017, 2017-2018, 2021-2022, and 2024-2025. 

C3S Seasonal Forecasts:

ECMWF:

Analog Cases:

ECMWF: December-February 500 mb Progression:

Analog Cases: December-February 500 mb Progression:

Select Snowfall Estimates:
Albany: 45"-60"
Baltimore: 10"-15"
Binghamton: 80"-90"
Boston: 35"-45"
Buffalo: 85"-95"
Burlington: 75"-85"
Caribou: 110"-125"
Chicago: 30"-40"
Detroit: 40"-50"
New York City: 15"-25"
Newark: 15"-25"
Philadelphia: 10"-20"
St. Louis: 10"-15"
Toronto: 100 cm - 125 cm
Washington, DC: 8"-12"

 

You might be too low with those numbers if December turns out wintry and cold like the pattern is signaling. 

Well detailed post though

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

You might be too low with those numbers if December turns out wintry and cold like the pattern is signaling. 

Well detailed post though

It could. That's the wild card so to speak. 2017-18 is in the analog mix. It saw 7.7" snow in December and 40.9" overall. 2016-17 had 3.2" in December and 30.2" overall.