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E MDR AEW: models support Car. TCG next wk


GaWx
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 All 12Z ops (except CMC’s near Leewards) have shifted actual (or imminent in case of UK) TCG from the prior favored E of Car to the C Car, which matches favored climo. TCG there would be ~10/20-10/23.
Check out the 12Z EPS, which has a whopping 18 H (36%) with 11 in the dangerous W Car and 7 recurving in SW ATL:

IMG_4872.thumb.png.0488a0ba373ac1e3016a3e9de0640947.png

 

Climo:

10/11-20 TCG:

oct_11_20.png


10/21-31 TCG:

oct_21_31.png

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24 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Wouldn’t it be something if we make it through peak season and October and get our only US hurricane landfall in November

Latest on record first Conus H impact of season is 10/20 (1853). Next is 10/18 of 1968.

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