98L

[hawkeye_wx]

12z Euro is similar to past runs.... stays relatively weak and is able to not get pulled north early, then blows up south of Jamaica and is quickly yanked north by the next trough.

[Amped]

Surprised to see no models caving in yet.  Gfs clearly shows too much intensification given the amount of shear, even if it's track ends up correct.

Euro and Icon seem to have the middle of the road tracks where it stalls near Jamaica thats my current leaning.

Cmc and Ukmet have a west bias, so they are the least likely Imo.

Edit: The 12z eps has a lot of members with strong lows near the Honduras coast so maybe that solution has a better chance than I originally thought.

 

 

[GaWx]

1. 12Z UKMET (goes to 168) maps once again have the low stay in the S Car and go west into Nicaragua; low is a bit stronger with it down to 1003 at strongest, which should easily be strong enough to be a TD although the textual output doesn’t show that.

Will UK for 98L be a miserable fail, the big winner, or in between? Stay tuned!

 

2. 12Z JMA (goes to 192): has a cat 1 hurricane headed due west to just offshore the Nicaragua/Honduras border

[GaWx]

0Z runs: all are now out

-Icon cat 2 H W. Haiti

-CMC first moves W and then WNW/NW to Jamaica as a TS followed by SW and then abrupt turn to N and then NNE/NE over C Cuba/NC Bahamas as a cat 3 H followed by a turn back to the N with it ending on a heading toward Cape Cod as it gets caught on the E side of a strong trough/upper low

-GFS very consistently hits Hispaniola again (cat 2 H)

-Euro just W of Jamaica, EC Cuba to C Bahamas (MH)

-UKMET remains quite consistent with the track and this time the text has it as a TC through hour 156, after which it weakens on approach to the NE Nicaraguan coast. The direction of movement starts off mainly WNW (with the furthest N being at 15.3N, which is actually furthest N of recent runs) followed by W and then WSW; strongest it gets is a minimal TS and lowest SLP 1004. At hour 156, the 0Z UKMET is a whopping 1,500 miles WSW of the 0Z GFS!

TROPICAL STORM 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 11.1N 69.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 21.10.2025 0 11.1N 69.0W 1009 30
1200UTC 21.10.2025 12 14.0N 71.5W 1008 35
0000UTC 22.10.2025 24 14.0N 73.6W 1006 31
1200UTC 22.10.2025 36 14.2N 74.3W 1005 34
0000UTC 23.10.2025 48 15.3N 75.2W 1004 31
1200UTC 23.10.2025 60 15.3N 75.8W 1005 33
0000UTC 24.10.2025 72 15.3N 76.8W 1005 28
1200UTC 24.10.2025 84 15.3N 77.3W 1005 27
0000UTC 25.10.2025 96 14.7N 78.0W 1005 25
1200UTC 25.10.2025 108 14.6N 79.1W 1006 26
0000UTC 26.10.2025 120 14.2N 80.6W 1004 23
1200UTC 26.10.2025 132 14.4N 81.8W 1005 25
0000UTC 27.10.2025 144 13.9N 82.5W 1004 20
1200UTC 27.10.2025 156 14.1N 82.8W 1005 18
0000UTC 28.10.2025 168 CEASED TRACKING