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Leeward Islands Area of Interest—10% 2 day and 40% seven day odds of development


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The tropics are active now with three systems being monitored. This is the thread for the current orange nearing the Leeward Islands. 

OBiEj4G.png
 

The forecast for this wave is complicated, with more implications for land than our central Atlantic cherry. The signal for development is not as strong as the Atlantic cherry, but this morning there is a modest amount of convection.

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The key to this wave and its possible risk to land is that it is likely to stay weak as it pushes across the northern Leeward Islands, bringing rain and gusty winds, but it finds a potentially more favorable environment for development in the southwest Atlantic. While the GFS has led the way in signaling development, in its latest run it consolidates both waves in five days off near the Bahamas.

JX9NtXd.png
 

Meanwhile, the Euro, which was more bearish originally, keeps both waves separate.

nPXdLlE.png
 

It is critical to see how the upper level pattern over the east coast develops, and whether the strength and orientation is enough to kick both waves out to sea or create an east coast threat. This one is definitely worth watching. 

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 This was a TC on the admittedly untrustworthy GFS as far back as the 0Z 9/18 run and consistently on runs the last couple of days, including some ensemble members. Also, the Icon and Euro have at least hints that this may turn into something.

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