eastern Atlantic blob 0/20

[BarryStantonGBP]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa
by this weekend to the south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Thereafter,
environmental conditions appear favorable for some slow development
of this system as it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to
20 mph, moving across the eastern into central Tropical Atlantic
through the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[A-L-E-K]

miami or bust obv

[GaWx]

 Though support has waned significantly since all but the GFS had it on Monday, the 0Z UKMET brought the E MDR AEW back from the dead (albeit with later TCG) with a minimal TS due to a strong pressure gradient below a rather strong Azores high moving WNW:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 15.6N  33.8W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 03.09.2025  156  15.6N  33.8W     1010            34
    0000UTC 04.09.2025  168  16.9N  35.9W     1011            35

——-

 But GFS/Icon/CMC/Euro have no more than a weak reflection at the sfc. Yesterday’s 12Z JMA has close to a TD but it doesn’t develop further and weakens. 
 
 If this were to develop, it like Erin due to latitude would be a good recurve safely candidate as of the current model consensus of steering fwiw but a long ways to go if it were to actually develop.

 Edit: Some EPS members develop this but only a pretty small percentage do that. The GEFS is very quiet, however.

[GaWx]

Followup on AEW coming off Africa as early as tomorrow:

12Z UKMET: has a TS that is already recurving before 40W:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 15.3N 32.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.09.2025 144 16.0N 33.0W 1010 37
0000UTC 04.09.2025 156 16.9N 35.4W 1010 40
1200UTC 04.09.2025 168 18.6N 37.0W 1010 38

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Followup on AEW coming off Africa as early as tomorrow:

12Z UKMET: has a TS that is already recurving before 40W:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 15.3N 32.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.09.2025 144 16.0N 33.0W 1010 37
0000UTC 04.09.2025 156 16.9N 35.4W 1010 40
1200UTC 04.09.2025 168 18.6N 37.0W 1010 38

 

made a poll

[GaWx]

 The 12Z GFS has this and makes it a H. The 12Z Euro has just a weak low.

 For the record: after 4 12Z JMA runs in a row with a TC from this, today’s 12Z JMA had no TC.

[Wannabehippie]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 The 12Z GFS has this and makes it a H. The 12Z Euro has just a weak low.

 For the record: after 4 12Z JMA runs in a row with a TC from this, today’s 12Z JMA had no TC.

Too far south, and too much SAL.

[BarryStantonGBP]

2 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

Too far south, and too much SAL.

So you think it won’t form 

[GaWx]

19 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

Too far south, and too much SAL.

 This wave won’t be coming off Africa til sometime this weekend.

[Wannabehippie]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 This wave won’t be coming off Africa til sometime this weekend.

Satellite photo of Africa is unimpressive to me. Until you get way out by Sudan/South Sudan.

[GaWx]

9 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

Satellite photo of Africa is unimpressive to me. Until you get way out by Sudan/South Sudan.

 I‘m guessing that the unimpressiveness of the wave over W Africa, the one the lemon is addressing, is why the models have backed off so much since Mon, when all major ops other than the GFS had this develop into a TC in the E MDR near the CV Islands.

[BarryStantonGBP]

22 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

Satellite photo of Africa is unimpressive to me. Until you get way out by Sudan/South Sudan.

 

14 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I‘m guessing that the unimpressiveness of the wave over W Africa, the one the lemon is addressing, is why the models have backed off so much since Mon, when all major ops other than the GFS had this develop into a TC in the E MDR near the CV Islands.

I already know gabs will be an mdr struggle bus

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET for system leaving Africa over weekend (E MDR lemon): 

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 13.5N 28.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.09.2025 108 13.5N 28.4W 1010 31
0000UTC 03.09.2025 120 14.0N 30.9W 1011 33
1200UTC 03.09.2025 132 15.9N 31.8W 1010 34
0000UTC 04.09.2025 144 16.4N 34.6W 1012 28
1200UTC 04.09.2025 156 17.2N 35.4W 1013 26
0000UTC 05.09.2025 168 18.4N 36.8W 1013 24