TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED IN CHAD, AFRICA (NOT 96L)

[BarryStantonGBP]

THIS WAVE HASN'T SPLASHED DOWN YET BUT DESERVES ITS OWN THREAD ANYWAY

POST MODEL RUNS HERE 

[BarryStantonGBP]

oui oui baguette

Quote

 Tropical Wave Inside Africa

•  

#2 by Category5Kaiju » Wed Aug 06, 2025 7:39 pm 

At least per the most recent GFS run, what really catches my attention is how quickly this storm seems to form just after exiting Africa, becoming what appears to be a named system right next to the Cape Verde islands. Given its very high intensity down the line, somewhat reminds me of storms like Irma, Florence, and Lorenzo in that regard as well.

Really hope not, but if some of these model guidances are correct, then this could be a very long thread.

 

[GaWx]

 The 6Z Euro ens 144 hour (end of run) is more active and quite possibly the most active run yet with this AEW. I count 19 closed sfc lows with 4 of those being sub 1000 mb. This is unfortunately setting up to be a potentially very dangerous system down the road for some land areas and is something the Euro Weeklies have been on top of for at least the last 9 days.
 
 For the Conus, itself, I’ll especially be interested in whether or not the MJO is going to be either in or nearby phase 2 (inside or outside the circle), the most dangerous phase per the last 50 years of tracks, around two weeks from now. Model consensus is at least hinting at that possibility.

[GaWx]

W African AEW:

1. The 12Z ICON is slightly stronger than the 0Z with the W African AEW. At 180, it has what already looks like a TD (well organized 1008 mb low at 19N, 46W. Although a TC near that position often recurves safely, this one is turning back to just N of due W after moving WNW earlier due to a stronger high to its north at this longitude.

2. The 12Z UKMET doesn’t have this. However, the 0Z had this data, which likely is not from the same AEW:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 15.4N 18.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.08.2025 120 15.6N 21.0W 1009 28
1200UTC 12.08.2025 132 15.0N 24.0W 1010 27
0000UTC 13.08.2025 144 15.4N 26.0W 1010 23
1200UTC 13.08.2025 156 CEASED TRACKING

[BarryStantonGBP]

 

[GaWx]

The 12Z UKMET is likely the 1st with a TD from this as it forms in only 114 hours (thus lemon-worthy). After sliding just N of the N Leewards, it ends the run approaching TS strength (33 knts/38 mph winds) 430 miles ENE of PR moving WNW at a pretty brisk 18 mph. Will have to wait for maps to get better idea of whether or not its implying it would likely recurve offshore the Conus.

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 15.8N 46.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.08.2025 120 16.1N 48.2W 1009 28
0000UTC 14.08.2025 132 17.8N 51.6W 1009 27
1200UTC 14.08.2025 144 18.9N 54.9W 1009 29
0000UTC 15.08.2025 156 20.3N 57.7W 1009 30
1200UTC 15.08.2025 168 21.4N 60.9W 1007 33

 

[WxWatcher007]

At least right now the GFS, Euro, and second tier models are in agreement that this one develops within the next 6 days or so. With 96L out of the way and a cross-guidance signal for strong Atlantic ridging this does look like a candidate to at least get to the SW Atlantic. From there, who knows. There are almost always unmodeled troughs/weaknesses at this range that could easily kick it before getting close to the US. 

[GaWx]

12Z GEFS: I count ~60% of the 30 members with a TC then from this at hour 204. With regard to the CONUS, there is a mix of a good number of more northern safe recurvers that are tending to be stronger (though possibly threatening Bermuda) and a minority of further south mainly then not as strong that are potential threats. This may be a good representation of the most likely scenarios as is often the case with ensembles:

[TampaMan]

Going to Tampa Aug 15 - Aug 22nd to close on a house. Should I be concerned about this or will it likely shoot up the coast? (This is also my only vacation of the year)

[GaWx]

9 minutes ago, TampaMan said:

Going to Tampa Aug 15 - Aug 22nd to close on a house. Should I be concerned about this or will it likely shoot up the coast? (This is also my only vacation of the year)

 
 No telling this far out. But the odds of any one location getting hit hard from this should it become a storm are small this far out.
Edit: That being said, can you ask for a delay in the closing a few days?

[TampaMan]

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 
 No telling this far out. But the odds of any one location getting hit hard from this should it become a storm are small this far out.
Edit: That being said, can you ask for a delay in the closing a few days?

Well, I could but it's also the week I took off of work and paid for a place to stay for said week. I'm not sure if it's refundable either (wife ordered the AirBnB). 

About to have a full blown panic attack. I need this vacation, not only this house. I know I'm likely over reacting a bit prematurely but it would just be standard for my life for a hurricane to pop up the one week I've decided to take a vacation (that I desperately need for the sake of my mental health). 

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, TampaMan said:

Well, I could but it's also the week I took off of work and paid for a place to stay for said week. I'm not sure if it's refundable either (wife ordered the AirBnB). 

About to have a full blown panic attack. I need this vacation, not only this house. I know I'm likely over reacting a bit prematurely but it would just be standard for my life for a hurricane to pop up the one week I've decided to take a vacation (that I desperately need for the sake of my mental health). 

 Reading your comments, it makes me wonder if you should rethink closing on a house in a highly vulnerable location to hurricanes in general like Tampa? Is it well inland and at a safe elevation?

[GaWx]

12Z Euro landfalls in E NC/Outer Banks at hour 324 (late on Aug 21st with it then in the 950s of mbs or likely near cat 3 status. All of this is very much just fwiw since it’s just an operational run out in fantasyland:

[TampaMan]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

 Reading your comments, it makes me wonder if you should rethink closing on a house in a highly vulnerable location to hurricanes in general like Tampa? Is it well inland and at a safe elevation?

It's more inland and away from the coast at a higher elevation, that was my first thought when my wife and I discussed about a move to FL. It's all job related as well. 

[GaWx]

11 minutes ago, TampaMan said:

It's more inland and away from the coast at a higher elevation, that was my first thought when my wife and I discussed about a move to FL. It's all job related as well. 

 If I were in your position, I’d be asking for a delay of this closing til after the potential threat from this is past. When do you need to ask for a delay by? Wouldn’t it be easier to be granted a delay if you ask sooner? Even though still only a small chance, what if this ends up hitting FL hard just after you close? I’d prefer that uncertainty to be past considering how big an investment this is. But that’s just me.

[TampaMan]

30 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 If I were in your position, I’d be asking for a delay of this closing til after the potential threat from this is past. When do you need to ask for a delay by? Wouldn’t it be easier to be granted a delay if you ask sooner? Even though still only a small chance, what if this ends up hitting FL hard just after you close? I’d prefer that uncertainty to be past considering how big an investment this is. But that’s just me.

You’re absolutely right, we could ask for a delay. I’m going to put aside the house topic for now, because that’s doable really at any time. I should’ve clarified. We haven’t picked a house yet, we are going down to choose from 3 options we like. Down to our final three, so that can be put on pause. I’m mainly concerned about my PTO because I’ve had this week circled for 6 months at this point. It’s more so a vacation as well as house hunting. 
 

The neighborhood we’re looking at his multiple houses for sale and it’s a safe distance from the coast and at a higher elevation. I know it’s a risk you run living in Florida regardless. 
 

I’m hopeful for the sake of my vacation & sanity that it does not happen and even more so hopeful for the residents of FL. 

 

Edit: not 6 weeks, 6 months.