Summer 2025 Banter Thread

[csnavywx]

On 7/6/2025 at 1:05 PM, michsnowfreak said:

Ill believe it when I see it. Ive been hearing this for 2 decades now and still nothing close to rival those 1930s-50s heatwaves in terms of frequency, magnitude, and days in the 90s/100s here. In 2023 Detroit didnt eclipse 90° for the first time since 1915. Every single year in the aforementioned decades there was bad heat, some worse than others. Certainly some was dry, but not all.

But the ENTIRE point of my post was the fact that there was no AC. Ive been researching the daily newspapers and it wasnt just the occasional deadly heatwave. Each summer in those years had deadly heatwaves with the fatalities often listed in the papers. We know how bad tornadoes are for death, but in the pre-AC days the mere summer temperature was the most deadly aspect of the weather.

I'll raise you double. 2012 summers will be the norm by 2040 (maintaining CONUS trend) -- and I'd wager malaria deaths were a huge problem and co-morbidity with that heat in the South. AC no doubt was a big alleviant and enabled huge strides here and in other places (like Singapore), but swamp draining and mosquito/disease control were just as important on the death end (from 1880-1950).

The ultimate limiter on outdoor activity in the future will be wet bulb temps and in terms of agricultural productivity (measured in total factor productivity) will be in absolute temps. Not much in the way of crops or tree cover survives a +8-10C anomaly summer.

I wrote a big thread on this on X/Twitter recently. Some of it is reasoned speculation (and should be treated as such) and others are much more rooted in predictable trends.

https://x.com/wxchris3/status/1941919707960926262

I know the hay that gets made over the 30s-50s and people like to really point at those -- but it's a bit rich to pretend like our agricultural practices didn't contribute to that and that we didn't vastly improve in both tech and wisdom from that point. The risk is that the underlying trend can and will undo that work.

[michsnowfreak]

20 hours ago, frostfern said:

I wasn’t disagreeing either.  Just adding.  

This July is looking to be very warm, possibly even record on average for Michigan, but the lack of record highs is not too surprising.  Lack of strong cold fronts and warm nights is really what’s driving the warming trend.

Not sure on this July. The 2nd half of the month looks normal to even below normal in temps. Doubt it will end up record warm.

[TheClimateChanger]

Definitely looks like some hazardous air quality will be working into the Midwest over the weekend. We can see by late Saturday night, things are looking particularly dicey over the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

This spills southward across Wisconsin and Michigan during the day on Sunday.

[TheClimateChanger]

Rarely see this visibility forecast register the smoke to this degree, but definitely going gung-ho on this in the western UP and northern Wisconsin, with widespread surface visibilities of 1-3 miles in dense smoke. Definitely something to keep an eye out for in Milwaukee, Chicago, Detroit, and Minneapolis. I see a lot of sunny forecasts, but those forecasts could be spoiled by this developing pall of smoke.

[TheClimateChanger]

Tomorrow afternoon looks particularly rough for northeastern Minnesota, including Duluth and International Falls, with possible Code Purple conditions and visibilities potentially dropping below a mile in dense smoke. A bunch of active wildfires in western Ontario and eastern Manitoba (close source region) look to really get their act together tomorrow and throw off tons of smoke which may converge over the region.

[TheClimateChanger]

Already seeing some of this activity in western Minnesota, with a number of these backyard Purple Air sensors registering AQIs in excess of 400. Comparing this to the modeled quantities for tomorrow, I wonder if we could see some AQI readings of 600-800 around Duluth, at least on some backyard sensors?

Visibility has been as low as 1/2 mile in Grand Forks today. So that's what I mean when I say these visibility forecasts tend to be pretty conservative.

 

[TheClimateChanger]

Latest Air Quality Statement confirming likelihood of Code Purple conditions tomorrow over the Arrowhead of Minnesota.

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-141400-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook and Lake-North Itasca-
Central St. Louis-Southern Lake-Southern Cook-North Cass-
South Itasca-South Cass-Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-
Carlton and South St. Louis-Pine-
Including the cities of International Falls, Ely, Isabella,
Bigfork, Hibbing, Two Harbors, Silver Bay, Grand Marais, Walker,
Grand Rapids, Pine River, Brainerd, Hill City, Aitkin, Duluth,
Pine City, and Hinckley
301 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...The Minnesota Pollution Control Agency has issued an Air
  Quality Alert for fine particles pollution. The Air Quality
  Index (AQI) is expected to reach the Purple or Very Unhealthy
  category.

* WHERE...North central and northeast Minnesota.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM CDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...The risk of health effects is increased for everyone.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy ground-level smoke from wildfires in
  central Canada moved into northwest Minnesota early Friday
  morning behind a cold front. This first band of smoke is
  currently impacting northern Minnesota as it moves east during
  the day Friday. Air quality will worsen across northeast
  Minnesota Friday evening as smoke arrives over the region. A
  second round of smoke will move into northwest Minnesota late
  Friday evening. This smoke will be more widespread as it moves
  southeast overnight, and by Saturday afternoon the entire state
  may be impacted. The heaviest smoke on Saturday will be across
  the northern half of the state. Air quality will begin to
  improve across western Minnesota Sunday morning as cleaner air
  moves in from the west. By Sunday evening, the smoke should be
  gone from most of the state. Another round of smoke is possible
  across far northern Minnesota Sunday night.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Sensitive groups, such as people with lung disease (including
asthma), heart disease, and children and older adults, should
avoid all physical activities outdoors. The general public should
avoid prolonged or heavy exertion. Reduce or eliminate activities
that contribute to air pollution, such as outdoor burning, and use
of residential wood burning devices. Reduce vehicle trips and
vehicle idling as much as possible. Keep windows closed overnight
to prevent smoke from getting indoors.

&&

For information on current air quality conditions in your area
and to sign up for daily air quality forecasts and alert
notifications by email, text message, phone, or the EPA AirNow
mobile app, visit https://www.pca.state.mn.us/air-water-land-
climate/current-air- quality-conditions. You can find additional
information about health and air quality at
https://www.pca.state.mn.us/air-water-land-climate/air-quality-
and-health.

$$

Huyck

[TheClimateChanger]

Actually forecasting Code Purple for MSP metro area as well:

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-122000-
Anoka-Benton-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago-Dakota-
Douglas-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-Kanabec-
Kandiyohi-Lac qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-
Morrison-Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-
Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Steele-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Waseca-
Washington-Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine-
Including the Tribal Nations of Mille Lacs, Prairie Island, and
Upper Sioux
Including the cities of Albert Lea, Alexandria, Apple Valley,
Blaine, Bloomington, Brooklyn Park, Buffalo, Burnsville, Eagan,
Eden Prairie, Farmington, Hastings, Mankato, Maple Grove,
Minneapolis, Minnetonka, Northfield, Plymouth, Prior Lake,
Ramsey, Rogers, Rosemount, Roseville, Shakopee, St. Cloud, St.
Louis Park, St. Paul, Stillwater, Waconia, White Bear Lake, and
Woodbury
255 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...The Minnesota Pollution Control Agency has issued an Air
Quality Alert for fine particles pollution. The Air Quality Index
(AQI) is expected to reach the Purple or Very Unhealthy category.

* WHERE...Central and south central Minnesota.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM CDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...The risk of health effects is increased for everyone.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy ground-level smoke from wildfires in
central Canada moved into northwest Minnesota early Friday
morning behind a cold front. This first band of smoke is
currently impacting northern Minnesota as it moves east during
the day Friday. Air quality will worsen across northeast
Minnesota Friday evening as smoke arrives over the region. A
second round of smoke will move into northwest Minnesota late
Friday evening. This smoke will be more widespread as it moves
southeast overnight, and by Saturday afternoon the entire state
may be impacted. The heaviest smoke on Saturday will be across
the northern half of the state. Air quality will begin to improve
across western Minnesota Sunday morning as cleaner air moves in
from the west. By Sunday evening, the smoke should be gone from
most of the state. Another round of smoke is possible across far
northern Minnesota Sunday night.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Sensitive groups, such as people with lung disease (including
asthma), heart disease, and children and older adults, should
avoid all physical activities outdoors. The general public should
avoid prolonged or heavy exertion.

Reduce or eliminate activities that contribute to air pollution,
such as outdoor burning, and use of residential wood burning
devices. Reduce vehicle trips and vehicle idling as much as
possible.

Keep windows closed overnight to prevent smoke from getting
indoors.

&&

For information on current air quality conditions in your area
and to sign up for daily air quality forecasts and alert
notifications by email, text message, phone, or the EPA AirNow
mobile app, visit https://www.pca.state.mn.us/air-water-land-
climate/current-air-quality-conditions. You can find additional
information about health and air quality at
https://www.pca.state.mn.us/air-water-land-climate/air-quality-
and-health.

$$

$$

Dunleavy