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[vortexse93]

2 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Wednesday is another outflow boundary special. May might feel late for the Deep South but early May is still prime time climo down there. LLJ is gonna be veered off quite a bit; but, strong upper-level winds will create robust speed shear and decent directional shear right on the outflow boundary.

Said boundary will be key. Away from that locally higher low-level shear the storm relative shear won't quite support tornadoes. I think the narrow 10% is the right call for Wed. Otherwise it's straight wind and perhaps hail from hotter cells. Storm mode looks like a mix of segments and blobs, with a few sups.

Valid Wed. May 6

I am going to share this post and will add my thoughts to it.

Tomorrow will be depend on the development and where the any potential outflow boundaries will setup at tomorrow afternoon/evening. Model guidance continues to show a messy line of supercells to develop across Central MS, right where the 10% tornado risk is currently highlighted in the graphic. 

The decision to storm chase or not remains up in the air as storm development will be on the edge of the Delta in to I-55 and I-20 area. Best case would be for a supercell to develop to my immediate north and meet it there before sun goes down which would be very doable. Will make the decision tomorrow afternoon as it looks like the storms will be close enough for me to make such a last minute decision. 

[vortexse93]

Wednesday 5-6-26 Morning Update 

12z KJAN morning sounding shows a decent sounding to start the day off with the loaded gun appearance.  Will need to see if any sunlight can break through the clouds to enhance mixing and help start eroding some of the cap away. My only concern at this moment is the wind profile at the surface. Still in need of some sort of outflow boundary to get winds to turn more southerly instead of southwesterly to enhance the directional shear across the area to have any chance of discrete/supercells this afternoon and evening. 
 

Current model guidance suggests that I-20 will be the dividing line. Model guidance however does not fully agree on if storms will be more favorable south of I-20 or north of I-20. Regardless, will need to watch to see how conditions will evolve throughout the day. Currently, would much rather chase north of I-20 where trees are less of a hassle/hindrance. South of I-20, trees are major issue so any potential to chase in this area will be considered unlikely. 

Chase target for me if storms develop along I-20 and north will be Canton, MS which is about 30-45 minutes north of my current location and have some decent options if needed. If I do chase south of I-20, options are extremely limited and will likely have to stick near I-55 or I-20 or maybe a major highway like Hwy 49 to have any chance of chasing or seeing anything worth noting. 

This decision is really undecided as I am waiting to see how morning model data trends and see how the environment will evolve by this afternoon. 
 

Date: 5/6/26 @ 9:05 AM

[nrgjeff]

Today has potential if it's close. Who cares if it's sloppy, low visibility, full of trees and hills? In the South we go mess or we go home, lol! Worst case you get a country drive, and get back in time for the NBA playoffs.

Yeah that overcast is a real problem south of the boundary. It'd be acceptable north of the boundary until early afternoon. South of the boundary really needs some heating soon to start destabilizing. Lapse rates are there above the low-level crud. 

Yeah the LLJ is weakening and retreating north. However upper-level winds remain stronger than what is necessary. Absolutely need the outflow boundary to locally back winds and create favorable SRH. 10% is probably right for just the boundary*. Otherwise looks like messy storm modes. Even on the boundary storm interaction could be a problem. What's new in the South? 

* I see two boundaries. Yes along I-20 is the coastal front or some other dewpoint differential. It lumbers north more in Alabama thanks to less overcast (still I-20). Agree that's the one for the best chance of discrete sups and tor. Synoptic lumbering front is in North Mississippi and North Alabama (almost Tenn border). It'll have storms, but more interaction and more problems.

Also if one overlays the hatched hail with the hatched tornado, indirect way of looking for sups, it favors Miss. 10% in Bama could be messy mode. Again, they all could be messy.

If I'm in JAN or BHM I'd plan on wrapping up work a few minutes early to chase. If it looks like crap enjoy a rainy evening watching sports at home. As for me, no plans to depart Chatty. 

[jaxjagman]

21 hours ago, vortexse93 said:

Wednesday 5-6-26 Morning Update 

12z KJAN morning sounding shows a decent sounding to start the day off with the loaded gun appearance.  Will need to see if any sunlight can break through the clouds to enhance mixing and help start eroding some of the cap away. My only concern at this moment is the wind profile at the surface. Still in need of some sort of outflow boundary to get winds to turn more southerly instead of southwesterly to enhance the directional shear across the area to have any chance of discrete/supercells this afternoon and evening. 
 

Current model guidance suggests that I-20 will be the dividing line. Model guidance however does not fully agree on if storms will be more favorable south of I-20 or north of I-20. Regardless, will need to watch to see how conditions will evolve throughout the day. Currently, would much rather chase north of I-20 where trees are less of a hassle/hindrance. South of I-20, trees are major issue so any potential to chase in this area will be considered unlikely. 

Chase target for me if storms develop along I-20 and north will be Canton, MS which is about 30-45 minutes north of my current location and have some decent options if needed. If I do chase south of I-20, options are extremely limited and will likely have to stick near I-55 or I-20 or maybe a major highway like Hwy 49 to have any chance of chasing or seeing anything worth noting. 

This decision is really undecided as I am waiting to see how morning model data trends and see how the environment will evolve by this afternoon. 
 

Date: 5/6/26 @ 9:05 AM

Did you go 55?I was watching my radar last night of the PDS,that had to be at least a EF3,i was kinda busy and couldnt watch the whole show but that was a nice couplet as it was headed towards Bube in that vicinity

[vortexse93]

14 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Did you go 55?I was watching my radar last night of the PDS,that had to be at least a EF3,i was kinda busy and couldnt watch the whole show but that was a nice couplet as it was headed towards Bube in that vicinity

I decided against it as trees made it nearly impossible to navigate and the back roads all had a northbound component with little east or west options.  Besides, the storm was HP (that has not stopped me before) but in the location it tracked there was no way of even getting a good view without putting myself in a very bad position. 

I’m also glad I did not chase because I-55 had to be shutdown in both directions as trees were blocking the road. This is also why I am so hesitant about chasing south of I-20. You kinda of make your decision with little to no other option of getting out once you are down there. 

To help me make go vs no go decisions, I use Google Maps and the street view  to help get a better understanding of the road network or even possible intersections before chasing in my chase target areas. 

I tend to find it more successful when I do study my chase targets as it allows me to have a better understanding of what I might come across instead of going in blind. 

Even when I am thinking about going into the Delta, I like to have a rough idea of what roads will lead back to a major highway or interstate for my commute back or in case of an escape route. I also tend to find places where I can pull over at where I can get back on the road safely and with little trouble. 

I may miss more opportunities to chase when doing this, like last night, but I also know I much rather be comfortable and safe than unsure and feeling lost. My end goal of chasing is to photograph and document storms. I am not here to be the next Reed or anything like that. This is just a hobby for me. 

[GBOVolz]

Did you go 55?I was watching my radar last night of the PDS,that had to be at least a EF3,i was kinda busy and couldnt watch the whole show but that was a nice couplet as it was headed towards Bube in that vicinity

It hit a trailer park unfortunately. Likely EF3 damage outside of the park


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[GBOVolz]

Dropped my scrip to Aguacero and switched to WeatherFront. Really liking WF and it’s products


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