2025 forecast contests -- enter for May 2025 (deadline 06z May 1)

[Roger Smith]

Table of Forecasts for May 2025

 

FORECASTER _____________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _ATL _IAH __DEN _PHX _SEA

 

wxallannj__________________________+2.5 _+2.5 _+2.5 __ +3.5 _+1.3 _+1.2 __+1.0 _+0.5 _+0.3

BKViking ___________(-2%)_________+2.3 _+2.3 _+2.1 __ +1.4 _+1.0 _+1.0 __+2.0 _+1.3 _+1.3

RJay ________________(-2%)________ +2.0 _+2.5 _+2.5 __+2.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 __+1.5 __ 0.0 _+1.5

wxdude64 ________________________ +1.8 _+1.9 _+1.7 __ +2.1 _+1.4 _ +1.1 __ +1.5 _+0.5 _+0.4

DonSutherland1 ___________________ +1.7 _+1.7 _+1.7 __+1.3 _+0.8 _+0.9 __+0.2 _-0.8 _+0.2

Scotty Lightning __________________ +1.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +1.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 __+1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5

___ Consensus ___________________+1.5 _+1.6_+1.7 __+1.4 _+1.0 _+1.0 __+1.3 _+0.5 _+0.5

StormchaserChuck _______________ +1.4 _+1.6 _+1.8 __ +2.9 _+0.4 _-0.6 __+1.1 _ +0.1 _+1.0

so_whats_happening ______________+1.4 _ +1.6 _ +1.7 __+1.9 _+0.5 _-0.2 __+1.5 _+0.3 _+0.5

Roger Smith _______________________ +1.3 _+1.4 _+1.5 __+1.2 _+0.7 _+0.5 __+2.7 _+1.0 _+1.5

RodneyS __________________________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+0.4 __ -1.8 _ +0.2 _+0.7 __+1.0 _-0.2 _-0.6

hudsonvalley21 ____________________+0.8 _+0.6 _+0.3 __ +1.4 _+1.7 _+1.2 __+1.8 _+2.1 _-0.2

Tom _______________________________ +0.6 _+0.8 _+0.8 __+1.1 _+0.4 _+0.9 __+0.8 _+0.5 _+0.7

___ Normal _________________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 _ 0.0

______

Persistence (Apr 2025) _____________+3.5 _+1.6 _+2.2 __+1.1 _+4.5 _+4.6 __+1.7 _+1.4 _+0.8

==================

Normal is lower than all forecasts at DCA, NYC, BOS, ATL, DEN

[Roger Smith]

<<< SNOWFALL CONTEST FINAL REPORT ?? >>>

(probably our final update, will keep an eye on DEN just in case)

 

Table of forecasts for snowfall winter 2024-2025

... listed in order of total snowfall predicted ...

 

FORECASTER ______________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _DTW _BUF ___ DEN _SEA _BTV ___ TOTAL

Roger Smith ________________13.5_ 32.0_ 47.0 ___ 50.6_ 52.2_ 130.0 ___ 89.0_ 1.5_109.3 ___ 525.1

wxdude64 _________________ 18.8_ 36.2_ 44.3 ___ 37.8_ 41.3_ 122.9 ___ 71.2_ 7.4 _102.7 ___ 482.6

Tom ________________________26.2_ 38.1_ 42.4 ___ 37.6_ 42.3_ 102.6 ___ 57.7_ 6.4__83.4 ___ 436.7

___ Normal 1991-2020 _____13.7_ 29.8_ 49.2 ___ 38.4 _45.0__95.4 ___49.0_ 6.3_87.5 ___ 414.3

BKViking ___________________12.0_ 27.0_ 44.0 ___ 30.0_ 28.0 __ 98.0 ___ 55.0_14.0_ 100.0___ 408.0

RodneyS ____________________5.8_ 22.0_ 38.5 ___ 42.5_ 45.0__ 99.0 ___ 58.0_ 9.5__85.0 ___ 405.3

___ Consensus ____________14.8_ 23.6_ 34.8 __ 35.0_ 36.7 _ 104.2 __57.4 _ 5.8 _91.7 ___ 404.0

RJay _______________________ 4.0_ 12.0 _ 50.0 ___ 29.0_ 35.0_ 100.0 ___ 60.0_ 6.0_ 100.0 ___ 396.0

Scotty Lightning ___________20.0_ 25.0_ 30.0___ 35.0_ 30.0_ 106.0 ___ 45.0 _ 3.0_ 100.0 ___ 394.0

wxallannj __________________25.0_ 30.0_ 34.0 ___32.0_ 35.0__ 94.0 ___ 40.0_ 4.0__ 88.0 ___ 382.0

Don Sutherland1 ___________ 8.0_ 16.5_ 35.0 ___ 40.0_ 45.0__ 95.0 ___ 55.0_ 8.0__ 75.0 ___ 377.5

hudsonvalley21 ____________17.0_ 21.0_ 28.0 ___ 26.0_ 24.0_ 102.0 ___ 51.0 _ 4.0__ 84.0 ___ 357.0

so_whats_happening ______13.0_ 19.0_ 35.0 ___ 29.0_ 31.0__ 98.0 ___ 39.0 _ 3.0__ 81.0 ___ 348.0

 

___________________________

Persistence (2023-2024) ___ 8.0__ 7.5__ 9.8 ___ 22.2_ 23.5__ 71.3 ___ 44.6_ 0.3__ 60.8 ___ 248.0

____________________

To date _____ (May 15) _______ 14.9__12.9 _28.1 ___17.6 _28.7__ 77.2 ___ 47.7 __2.3 __75.7 ____305.1

(contest incl all seasonal snow)

 

__Scoring update (in order)__

_ underlined errors are forecasts lower than actual ... rest are forecasts higher than actual to date _

 

Rank _FORECASTER _____________ DCA_NYC_BOS __ ORD_DTW_BUF ___ DEN_SEA_BTV ___ TOTAL

 

_01__hudsonvalley21 ___________ 2.1 _ 8.1 __ 0.1 _____ 8.4 __ 4.7 __ 24.8 ____ 3.3 _ 1.7 __ 8.3 ___ 61.5

_02 __so_whats_happening ______ 1.9 _ 6.1 __ 6.9 ____ 11.4 __ 2.3 __20.8 ____8.7 _ 0.7 __ 5.3 ___ 64.1

(02.1)_Persistence (2023-2024)__6.9__ 5.4__18.3 ___ 4.6 __ 5.2 ____5.9 ____ 3.1 _2.0 _ 14.9 ___ 66.3

_03 __Don Sutherland1 ___________ 6.9 _ 3.6 __6.9 ___ 22.4 _ 16.3 __ 17.8 ____7.3 _ 5.7 __ 0.7 ___ 87.6

 

_04 __wxallannj __________________ 10.1_ 17.1 __ 5.9 ___ 14.4 __ 6.3 __ 16.8 ____7.7 _ 1.7 __ 12.3 ___ 92.3

_05 __Scotty Lightning ___________ 5.1 _ 12.1 __ 1.9 ___ 17.4 __ 1.3 __ 28.8 ____ 2.7 _0.7 _ 24.3 ___ 94.3

(5.3)___ Consensus ____________ 0.1 _ 10.7 _ 6.7 ___ 17.4 __8.0 __27.0 ____ 9.7 _ 3.5 _16.0 __ 99.1

_06 __BKViking ___________________ 2.9_ 14.1 _ 15.9 ___ 12.4 __ 0.7 __ 20.8 ___ 7.3 _11.7 __24.3 ___ 110.1

 

(6.2)___ Normal 1991-2020 ____ 1.2 _ 16.9_ 21.1 ___ 20.8 _ 16.3 __16.5 ___ 3.0_ 4.0__11.8 ___ 111.6

_07 __RJay _______________________10.9 _ 0.9 _21.9 ___ 11.4 __ 6.3 __ 22.8 ___ 12.3_ 3.7 _ 24.3 ___ 114.5

_08 __RodneyS ____________________9.1 _ 9.1 _ 10.4 ___ 24.9 _ 16.3 __ 21.8 ____8.6 _ 7.2 __ 8.9 ___ 118.4

_09 __Tom ________________________11.3_ 25.2_ 14.3 ___ 20.0 _ 13.6 _ 25.4 ___ 10.0 _ 4.1 __ 7.7 ___ 131.6

_10 __wxdude64 _________________ 3.9_ 23.3_ 16.2 ___ 20.2 _ 12.6 _ 45.7 ___23.5 _ 5.1 _27.0 ___ 177.5

_11 __Roger Smith ________________ 1.4_ 19.1 _ 18.9 ___ 33.0 _ 23.5 _ 51.1 ___ 43.0_ 0.8_ 33.6 ___ 224.4

(will post final comments at end of May)

 

[Roger Smith]

Tracking anomalies and projections ...

_____________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

___ anom 1-15 ______ +3.5 _ +2.8 _ +3.0 ___+1.0 _ +0.1 _ +1.5 __ +3.0 _ +1.2 _ -0.5

___ p anom 1-31 ____ +2.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 ___ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +2.5 __ +3.0 _ +1.5 __ 0.0

[Roger Smith]

 

Preliminary scoring for May 2025

 

FORECASTER __________________ DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA_west __ TOTAL

 

wxallannj________________________ 90 _ 80 _ 80 _ 250 _ 40 _ 94 _ 74 _ 208 _ 458 _ 60 _ 80 _ 94 __ 234 ___ 692

BKViking ___________(-2%)_______96 _ 84 _ 88 _ 268 _ 82 _100 _ 70 _ 252 _ 520 _ 80 _ 96 _ 74 __ 250 ___ 770 (754)

RJay ________________(-2%)______ 90 _ 80 _ 80 _ 250 _ 70 _100 _ 70 _ 240 _ 490 _ 70 _ 70 _ 70 __ 210 ___ 700 (689)

wxdude64 ______________________ 86 _ 92 _ 96 _ 274 _ 68 _ 92 _ 72 _ 232 _ 506 _ 70 _ 80 _ 92 __ 242 ___ 748

DonSutherland1 _________________ 84 _ 96 _ 96 _ 276 _ 84 _ 96 _ 68 _ 248 _ 524 _ 44 _ 54 _ 96 __ 194 ___ 718

Scotty Lightning ________________ 80 _ 90 _ 90 _ 260 _ 90 _ 80 _ 90 _ 260 _ 520 _ 60 _100 _ 90 __ 250 ___ 770

___ Consensus _________________80 _ 98 _ 96 _ 274 _ 82 _100 _ 70 _ 252 _ 526 _ 66 _ 80 _ 90 __ 236 ___ 762

StormchaserChuck _____________ 78 _ 98 _ 94 _ 270 _ 52 _ 88 _ 38 _ 178 _ 448 _ 62 _ 72 _ 80 __ 214 ____ 662

so_whats_happening ____________78 _ 98 _ 96 _ 272 _ 72 _ 90 _ 46 _ 208 _ 480 _ 70 _ 76 _ 90 __ 236 ___ 716

Roger Smith _____________________76 _ 98 _100 _ 274 _ 86 _ 94 _ 60 _ 240 _ 514 _ 94 _ 90 _ 70 __ 254 ____ 768

RodneyS ________________________ 70 _ 90 _ 78 _ 238 _ 54 _ 84 _ 64 _ 202 _ 440 _ 60 _ 66 _ 88 __214 ____ 654

hudsonvalley21 __________________66 _ 82 _ 76 _ 224 _ 82 _ 86 _ 74 _ 242 _ 466 _ 76 _ 88 _ 98 __ 262 ___ 728

Tom _____________________________62 _ 86 _ 86 _ 234 _ 88 _ 88 _ 68 _ 244 _ 478 _ 56 _ 80 _ 86 __ 222 ___ 700

___ Normal _______________________50 _ 70 _ 70 _ 190 _ 90 _ 80 _ 50 _ 220 _ 410 _ 40 _ 70 _100 __ 210 ___ 620

______

Persistence (Apr 2025) __________80 _ 98 _ 86 _ 264 _ 88 _ 30 _ 58 _ 176 _ 440 _ 74 _ 98 _ 84 __ 256 ___ 696

==============================

very good scoring ... if estimates are on track ...

... late penalties, best scores, extreme forecasts will be incorporated later. 

[so_whats_happening]

On 5/15/2025 at 8:14 PM, Roger Smith said:

<<< SNOWFALL CONTEST FINAL REPORT ?? >>>

(probably our final update, will keep an eye on DEN just in case)

 

Table of forecasts for snowfall winter 2024-2025

... listed in order of total snowfall predicted ...

 

FORECASTER ______________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _DTW _BUF ___ DEN _SEA _BTV ___ TOTAL

Roger Smith ________________13.5_ 32.0_ 47.0 ___ 50.6_ 52.2_ 130.0 ___ 89.0_ 1.5_109.3 ___ 525.1

wxdude64 _________________ 18.8_ 36.2_ 44.3 ___ 37.8_ 41.3_ 122.9 ___ 71.2_ 7.4 _102.7 ___ 482.6

Tom ________________________26.2_ 38.1_ 42.4 ___ 37.6_ 42.3_ 102.6 ___ 57.7_ 6.4__83.4 ___ 436.7

___ Normal 1991-2020 _____13.7_ 29.8_ 49.2 ___ 38.4 _45.0__95.4 ___49.0_ 6.3_87.5 ___ 414.3

BKViking ___________________12.0_ 27.0_ 44.0 ___ 30.0_ 28.0 __ 98.0 ___ 55.0_14.0_ 100.0___ 408.0

RodneyS ____________________5.8_ 22.0_ 38.5 ___ 42.5_ 45.0__ 99.0 ___ 58.0_ 9.5__85.0 ___ 405.3

___ Consensus ____________14.8_ 23.6_ 34.8 __ 35.0_ 36.7 _ 104.2 __57.4 _ 5.8 _91.7 ___ 404.0

RJay _______________________ 4.0_ 12.0 _ 50.0 ___ 29.0_ 35.0_ 100.0 ___ 60.0_ 6.0_ 100.0 ___ 396.0

Scotty Lightning ___________20.0_ 25.0_ 30.0___ 35.0_ 30.0_ 106.0 ___ 45.0 _ 3.0_ 100.0 ___ 394.0

wxallannj __________________25.0_ 30.0_ 34.0 ___32.0_ 35.0__ 94.0 ___ 40.0_ 4.0__ 88.0 ___ 382.0

Don Sutherland1 ___________ 8.0_ 16.5_ 35.0 ___ 40.0_ 45.0__ 95.0 ___ 55.0_ 8.0__ 75.0 ___ 377.5

hudsonvalley21 ____________17.0_ 21.0_ 28.0 ___ 26.0_ 24.0_ 102.0 ___ 51.0 _ 4.0__ 84.0 ___ 357.0

so_whats_happening ______13.0_ 19.0_ 35.0 ___ 29.0_ 31.0__ 98.0 ___ 39.0 _ 3.0__ 81.0 ___ 348.0

 

___________________________

Persistence (2023-2024) ___ 8.0__ 7.5__ 9.8 ___ 22.2_ 23.5__ 71.3 ___ 44.6_ 0.3__ 60.8 ___ 248.0

____________________

To date _____ (May 15) _______ 14.9__12.9 _28.1 ___17.6 _28.7__ 77.2 ___ 47.7 __2.3 __75.7 ____305.1

(contest incl all seasonal snow)

 

__Scoring update (in order)__

_ underlined errors are forecasts lower than actual ... rest are forecasts higher than actual to date _

 

Rank _FORECASTER _____________ DCA_NYC_BOS __ ORD_DTW_BUF ___ DEN_SEA_BTV ___ TOTAL

 

_01__hudsonvalley21 ___________ 2.1 _ 8.1 __ 0.1 _____ 8.4 __ 4.7 __ 24.8 ____ 3.3 _ 1.7 __ 8.3 ___ 61.5

_02 __so_whats_happening ______ 1.9 _ 6.1 __ 6.9 ____ 11.4 __ 2.3 __20.8 ____8.7 _ 0.7 __ 5.3 ___ 64.1

(02.1)_Persistence (2023-2024)__6.9__ 5.4__18.3 ___ 4.6 __ 5.2 ____5.9 ____ 3.1 _2.0 _ 14.9 ___ 66.3

_03 __Don Sutherland1 ___________ 6.9 _ 3.6 __6.9 ___ 22.4 _ 16.3 __ 17.8 ____7.3 _ 5.7 __ 0.7 ___ 87.6

 

_04 __wxallannj __________________ 10.1_ 17.1 __ 5.9 ___ 14.4 __ 6.3 __ 16.8 ____7.7 _ 1.7 __ 12.3 ___ 92.3

_05 __Scotty Lightning ___________ 5.1 _ 12.1 __ 1.9 ___ 17.4 __ 1.3 __ 28.8 ____ 2.7 _0.7 _ 24.3 ___ 94.3

(5.3)___ Consensus ____________ 0.1 _ 10.7 _ 6.7 ___ 17.4 __8.0 __27.0 ____ 9.7 _ 3.5 _16.0 __ 99.1

_06 __BKViking ___________________ 2.9_ 14.1 _ 15.9 ___ 12.4 __ 0.7 __ 20.8 ___ 7.3 _11.7 __24.3 ___ 110.1

 

(6.2)___ Normal 1991-2020 ____ 1.2 _ 16.9_ 21.1 ___ 20.8 _ 16.3 __16.5 ___ 3.0_ 4.0__11.8 ___ 111.6

_07 __RJay _______________________10.9 _ 0.9 _21.9 ___ 11.4 __ 6.3 __ 22.8 ___ 12.3_ 3.7 _ 24.3 ___ 114.5

_08 __RodneyS ____________________9.1 _ 9.1 _ 10.4 ___ 24.9 _ 16.3 __ 21.8 ____8.6 _ 7.2 __ 8.9 ___ 118.4

_09 __Tom ________________________11.3_ 25.2_ 14.3 ___ 20.0 _ 13.6 _ 25.4 ___ 10.0 _ 4.1 __ 7.7 ___ 131.6

_10 __wxdude64 _________________ 3.9_ 23.3_ 16.2 ___ 20.2 _ 12.6 _ 45.7 ___23.5 _ 5.1 _27.0 ___ 177.5

_11 __Roger Smith ________________ 1.4_ 19.1 _ 18.9 ___ 33.0 _ 23.5 _ 51.1 ___ 43.0_ 0.8_ 33.6 ___ 224.4

(will post final comments at end of May)

 

Oh man that was close. Congrats @hudsonvalley21

As always thanks Roger!

[hudsonvalley21]

On 5/20/2025 at 7:34 AM, so_whats_happening said:

Oh man that was close. Congrats @hudsonvalley21

As always thanks Roger!

Thanks, yes it was real close. Also, thanks Rodger for your time and efforts