Winter 2024-2025 DISC

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 5/1/2024 at 10:48 AM, Great Snow 1717 said:

I've been saying that for quite some time. 

Operative word being "almost"...I don't think they are entirely useless, but its clear now that you can't just rip and read these analogs from 20+ years ago.

Agree.

[40/70 Benchmark]

This may come off the wrong way and induce some eye rolls, but I am really encouraged by my past couple of seasonal efforts despite the poor overall verification results. I honestly feel like my methods have continued to improve and the products are better than the ones that verified fairly well over the past decade. Its kind of analogous to a slugger with a statcast graphic adorned in red that isn't necessarily reflected by the poor surface stats. I feel like I have patched up some holes in my methodology and have fairly accurately predicited the gist of the hemispheric pattern, whereas some of those years that I ostensibly "nailed" were due to a good degree of luck that belied some huge forecast shortcomings. I have really improved with respect to the polar domain, but I obviously need to address the extra tropical Pacific and how to incoporate older analogs into a modern seasonal forecast.

I will no longer be ignoring the West Pacific Osillation, that is for sure....the Pacific drives the bus over the US and the West Pacific drives the Pacific.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 5/3/2024 at 1:17 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This may come off the wrong way and induce some eye rolls, but I am really encouraged by my past couple of seasonal efforts despite the poor overall verification results. I honestly feel like my methods have continued to improve and the products are better than the ones that verified fairly well over the past decade. Its kind of analogous to a slugger with a statcast graphic adorned in red that isn't necessarily reflected by the poor surface stats. I feel like I have patched up some holes in my methodology and have fairly accurately predicited the gist of the hemispheric pattern, whereas some of those years that I ostensibly "nailed" were due to a good degree of luck that belied some huge forecast shortcomings. I have really improved with respect to the polar domain, but I obviously need to address the extra tropical Pacific and how to incoporate older analogs into a modern seasonal forecast.

I will no longer be ignoring the West Pacific Osillation, that is for sure....the Pacific drives the bus over the US and the West Pacific drives the Pacific.

While I think this is generally true, my work was more flawed than I implied here.

Here is the post analysis.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/05/winter-2023-2024-outlook-largely-failure.html

[Jebman]

On 5/3/2024 at 12:17 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This may come off the wrong way and induce some eye rolls, but I am really encouraged by my past couple of seasonal efforts despite the poor overall verification results. I honestly feel like my methods have continued to improve and the products are better than the ones that verified fairly well over the past decade. Its kind of analogous to a slugger with a statcast graphic adorned in red that isn't necessarily reflected by the poor surface stats. I feel like I have patched up some holes in my methodology and have fairly accurately predicited the gist of the hemispheric pattern, whereas some of those years that I ostensibly "nailed" were due to a good degree of luck that belied some huge forecast shortcomings. I have really improved with respect to the polar domain, but I obviously need to address the extra tropical Pacific and how to incoporate older analogs into a modern seasonal forecast.

I will no longer be ignoring the West Pacific Osillation, that is for sure....the Pacific drives the bus over the US and the West Pacific drives the Pacific.

The Pac drives the bus right over the Sierra, dumping massive amounts of snow there. If I had the wealth, I would move to Palisades Tahoe, kick back and enjoy the deep snows year after year after year.